Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Aqueduct’s $91,498 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Feb. 12 at Fair Grounds, Turf Paradise, and Turfway Park, along with a horse to single in Aqueduct’s $91,498 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 15% Odds Boost at Oaklawn Park: Receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 for the day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Oaklawn Park each racing Thursday in February.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Tampa Bay Downs Challenge
• $200 Aqueduct Feeder to 2/21 Oaklawn KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $50 Fair Grounds Challenge
• $200 Fair Grounds Feeder to 2/14 Risen Star KDBC Qualifier
• $50 Turfway Park Challenge
• $160 Turfway Park Feeder to 3/1 Rebel KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Fair Grounds: Race 7: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#1 Emancipation (4-5) is a logical favorite while dropping sharply in class. He’s recorded a couple of top-three finishers in $150,000 maiden claimers on dirt at Churchill Downs and Keeneland, and he figures to find the caliber of competition on Thursday more manageable.

We’ll count on Emancipation to deliver a breakthrough win under red-hot jockey Jose Ortiz, a 29% winner at Fair Grounds this meet. We’ll bet him over the speedy #4 Key Man (4-1), who is dropping in class out of a $30,000 maiden claimer, in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #1 Emancipation (4-5)
• #4 Key Man (4-1)
• #7 Eccentric Club (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 1 with 4

Turf Paradise: Race 7: Molly P S. (about 7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 6:10 p.m. ET)

#5 Sayucan (3-1) has spent most of her career competing with aplomb on dirt. But she’s also 1-for-1 on turf. In the 7 1/2-furlong Princess of Palms S. at Turf Paradise last year, she led all the way to win by 2 1/2 lengths over next-out Arizona Oaks winner A Thousand Miles, who later displayed high-level turf form when finishing second in the Autumn Miss (G3) at Santa Anita.

Returning to the Turf Paradise grass for the Molly P should make Sayucan tough to beat for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Glenn Corbett and Kevin Eikleberry. Let’s bet Sayucan to win and key her over #2 Flame McGoon (6-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #5 Sayucan (3-1)
• #2 Flame McGoon (6-1)
• #8 Pepper Mill (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Sayucan
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 2
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#1 Breaking Hearts (8-1) is a newcomer to the Turfway Tapeta. In her lone start to date, the daughter of More Than Ready finished sixth of 11 after a troubled start in a one-mile maiden special weight on turf at Churchill Downs.

Switching to Tapeta may unlock a winning performance from Breaking Hearts, especially since trainer Cherie DeVaux wins at a solid 18% rate with second-time starters. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #1 Breaking Hearts (8-1)
• #4 Nicksie (3-1)
• #6 Bush League (12-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #1 Breaking Hearts

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 4: $91,498 Pick 6 carryover (2:11 p.m. ET)

After going unsolved during each of the last two race cards, the $1 Pick 6 at Aqueduct boasts a $91,498 double carryover for Thursday’s card.

In recent days, showing speed and saving ground are two strategies that have seemed advantageous at Aqueduct. Bettors seeking a trustworthy single to build tickets around are advised to back a horse with early speed (and thus a clear way to secure an inside lane), in case the biases continue on Thursday.

Such a horse can be found in Race 7, a $25,000 claimer for three-year-olds sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs. #2 Top Player (1-1) is the clear morning-line favorite while dropping in class out of an $80,000 allowance optional claimer for New York-breds over this track and distance, but he’s set the pace only once in five starts, so it’s possible he’ll settle a little farther back than ideal in Thursday’s contest.

In contrast, #4 Mercilesanihilator (3-1) has set the pace in two of his four starts, including when leading essentially all the way to win his debut in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. He was last seen carving out the tempo in a $40,000 claimer on Oct. 9 at Keeneland, in which he finished fourth while beaten only four lengths.

Mercilesanihilator has since been gelded and is adding Lasix for his first start since being claimed by hot trainer Linda Rice, who wins at a 22% rate with new claiming acquisitions. All these changes suggest Mercilesanihilator has room for improvement, especially if he makes the lead and saves ground over a biased track.

The presence of jockey Kendrick Carmouche adds to the appeal. Over the last two months, Carmouche has won at a 22% rate teaming up with Rice.

The drop from a $40,000 claimer into a $25,000 claimer cements Mercilesanihilator as a strong win threat. While Pick 6 bettors with large budgets may wish to use Mercilesanihilator equally with Top Player (especially if Thursday’s track appears fair), we’re confident enough that Mercilesanihilator will work out the right trip to suggest him as a Pick 6 single for budget-conscious bettors.

Good luck!