Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Baffle can win return at 8-1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Oct. 16 at Keeneland, Aqueduct, and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a horse to single in the $1,344 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Bet $3,000 Get 5% Back on BCBC Seat: Place at least $3,000 in eligible wagers on races from Oct. 1 through Oct. 26 to receive 5% back on your Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge seat purchase through TwinSpires.
• $3,000 Keeneland WIN Ladder: Place a $5+ single-horse win wager on selected races at Keeneland each Thursday and Friday in October to move up the Win Ladder and compete for your share of a $3,000 prize pool.
• 10x Points at Charlottetown Red Shores: Receive 10x rewards points on all wagers (excluding show bets) in all races at Charlottetown Red Shores from Thursday, Oct. 2 through Thursday, Oct. 30.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Keeneland Challenge
• $200 Keeneland Feeder to 10/18 Keeneland KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $200 Woodbine Feeder to 10/25 Keeneland BCBC/CBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs on dirt, 2:04 p.m. ET)

#7 Our Forefathers (4-1) ran reasonably well when debuting in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last month. He passed a few rivals to finish fifth in a 12-horse field, beaten 6 1/4 lengths.

Sharp workouts since his debut suggest Our Forefathers can vie for victory at Keeneland, especially since trainer Peter Eurton wins at a 23% rate with second-time starters. A win bet is in order, and we’ll also mix in a small exacta using #9 Into the Beast (5-2) for second place.

Selections

• #7 Our Forefathers (4-1)
• #9 Into the Beast (5-2)
• #10 Confessional (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Our Forefathers
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 9
  Total: $25

Aqueduct: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs on dirt, 3:20 p.m. ET)

#1 Baffle (8-1) debuted back on April 30 in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. After dropping more than a dozen lengths off the pace, she advanced to finish third behind future Astoria S. and Prairie Gold Lassie S. winner Sassy C W.

Baffle disappeared from the work tab immediately afterward and didn’t resume serious training until August. Eight workouts (including half a dozen over the Saratoga training track) should have Baffle fit for a competitive return. It helps that Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher wins at a 21% rate with second-time starters, and at a 20% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

At 8-1, Baffle is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #1 Baffle (8-1)
• #3 Ms Sophistication (3-1)
• #9 Britain (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Baffle

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 5:18 p.m. ET)

#2 Tainted Justice (5-2) finished third in his first two starts sprinting over this track and class level. Stretching out over one mile may help him visit the winner’s circle. His pedigree suggests he’ll relish this trip—his full sister Voodoo Justice won the one-mile Ellen’s Lucky Star S., while his half-brother Jersey Justice nabbed the one-mile and 70-yard Indiana Futurity.

Let’s key Tainted Justice on top of exacta and trifecta tickets using #1 My Lunar Charm (8-5) and #3 Coyote Justice (4-1) underneath.

Selections

• #2 Tainted Justice (5-2)
• #1 My Lunar Charm (8-5)
• #3 Coyote Justice (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 2 with 1
• $10 Trifecta: 2 with 1 with 3
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $1,344 Pick 5 carryover (3:30 p.m. ET)

Thursday’s 50-cent Early Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs features a non-jackpot $1,344 carryover. Every winning bettor will earn a share of the prize pool, no unique winning ticket required.

Mathematically speaking, it’s a straightforward Pick 5. The five races have drawn 31 horses in total (averaging 6.2 per race), and no race features more than seven entries. All told, there are only 9,072 possible outcomes to analyze, which is low for a Pick 5.

Even better, we can slice the possibilities down to 1,512 just by singling morning-line favorite #4 Riding a Dream (9-5) in Race 4, a $16,000 claimer for horses who have never won three races.

The six-furlong Tapeta sprint drew six entries, and Riding a Dream looks like a standout. Sure, the three-year-old gelding has faltered in his last two starts, finishing fourth and fifth. But those were allowance races in which Riding a Dream was beaten to the lead before tiring in the final furlong.

Riding a Dream was much more effective when competing in claiming races during the summer. He wired three straight $12,500 and $25,000 claiming sprints at Presque Isle, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 83, 81, and 80.

None of Riding a Dream’s Race 4 rivals have recently posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 80 over a synthetic track. Also, none have recently shown enough speed to set the pace in a sprint. Chances are, Riding a Dream will secure an uncontested lead while dropping in class, allowing him to bounce back with a gate-to-wire victory.

Compelling jockey and trainer statistics cement Riding a Dream as the horse to beat. He’s slated to be ridden by Presque Isle’s leading jockey Antonio Gallardo, a 24% winner this meet and a 35% winner teaming up with trainer Juan Arriagada. The latter ranks atop the Presque Isle trainer standings thanks in part to a stellar 28% win percentage this meet.

For all these reasons, we feel confident recommending Riding a Dream as a Pick 5 single.

Good luck!