Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Belmont’s $22,988 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Oct. 15 at Keeneland and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a horse to single in the $22,988 Pick 6 carryover at Belmont Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It at Keeneland: Opt in and hit the Late Pick 5 at Keeneland for a chance to split a $2,500 prize pool each racing Thursday in October, from Oct. 8 through Oct. 22.
• 8x Rewards Points at Red Shores: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Red Shores Charlottetown and Red Shores Summerside each racing day from Sept. 19 through Oct. 31.
• 4% Cash Back on Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge: Opt in and receive 4% cash back on your Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) entry purchased through TwinSpires when you have previously competed in any BCBC qualifier, hosted by TwinSpires or any other operator.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $76 Keeneland Bet and Set Feeder to 10/16 Keeneland KDBC/BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $200 Belmont Park Feeder to 10/24 Keeneland BCBC Bonus Qualifier
• $50 Belmont Park Challenge
• $150 Keeneland Challenge
• $40 Keeneland Challenge
• $200 Keeneland Feeder to 10/17 Keeneland KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $40 Charles Town Challenge
• $80 Charles Town Feeder to 10/23 Keeneland BCBC Bonus Feeder

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 8: $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 4:44 p.m. ET)

#6 Caribbean Life (4-5) is dropping in class after finishing third in the one-mile Iroquois (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. He owns the two highest Brisnet Speed ratings in this field and should be tough to beat.

#8 My Boy Gary (9-2), a four-length maiden winner when making his dirt debut racing one mile at Churchill Downs last month, can round out the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Caribbean Life (4-5)
• #8 My Boy Gary (9-2)
• #9 Take a Picture (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 6 with 8

Keeneland: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 5:16 p.m. ET)

#4 She’s On a Roll (9-5) is a logical favorite after finishing second in her last three tries at the maiden special weight level, but her 10-0-4-1 lifetime tally suggests she has a tendency to settle for minor awards.

Let’s try to beat She’s On a Roll with #3 Just Entitled (5-1). The beautifully bred daughter of Justify out of a Galileo mare debuted with a fifth-place finish in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs during the spring. She’s posted eight timed workouts in preparation for her comeback and is eligible to move forward for trainer Brendan Walsh, who wins at a solid 16% rate with second-time starters.

Selections

• #3 Just Entitled (5-1)
• #4 She’s On a Roll (9-5)
• #6 Take the Helm (12-1)

Wagers

• $24 to win on #3 Just Entitled
• $6 Exacta: 3 with 4
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:24 p.m. ET)

#7 Polka Dot Jersey (10-1) has shown flashes of ability sprinting on turf. Last time out, he finished fourth (beaten only 1 3/4 lengths) in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Now Polka Dot Jersey is tackling a maiden special weight restricted to horses bred in Indiana. He brings plenty of early speed to the table and could be dangerous if he secures the early lead in his dirt debut.

Let’s try a win bet on Polka Dot Jersey, then key him over first-time starter #9 Sibilla (5-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #7 Polka Dot Jersey (10-1)
• #9 Sibilla (5-2)
• #5 Aint Having It (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Polka Dot Jersey
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 9
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Belmont Park: Race 3: $22,988 Pick 6 carryover (2:16 p.m. ET)

Thanks in part to a 31-1 longshot winner in the sequence, the $1 Pick 6 at Belmont Park on Wednesday went unsolved, triggering a $22,988 carryover into Thursday’s card.

Thursday’s sequence features 54 entries (averaging nine per race) and 396,900 possible outcomes before scratches.

Are you looking for a trustworthy single to build tickets around? Try #2 Risk Tolerance (2-5), the heavy favorite to win Race 3, an $80,000 allowance optional claimer for three-year-olds and older horses racing 1 1/16 miles over the outer turf course.

Best single: Race 3: #2 Risk Tolerance (2-5)

Risk Tolerance has been sharp in three starts on the New York Racing Association circuit this year. First, he finished second in a 1 3/16-mile $80,000 allowance optional claimer, beaten only half a length by the multiple Grade 1-placed Integration.

Next, Risk Tolerance cut back to one mile and nabbed an allowance at Saratoga, prevailing by three-quarters of a length over next-out allowance winner Highlands Way, with subsequent Gio Ponti S. winner Siyouincanada finishing another length back in third.

Most recently, Risk Tolerance rallied to finish a close fourth in the 1 1/16-mile Bernard Baruch S., beaten only three-quarters of a length.

Risk Tolerance earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 96 in both his allowance win and the Bernard Baruch, and across his last five starts, he hasn’t earned a number lower than 92. Those numbers are significant since none of his Race 3 rivals have earned a rating higher than 91 in their last four starts apiece.

Strong jockey and trainer stats cement Riks Tolerance as the horse to beat. He’s conditioned by five-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown, a 25% winner at Belmont Park this meet. He’s slated to be ridden by Flavien Prat, a 26% winner at the current Belmont meet. And over the last two months, Prat and Brown have won at a 28% rate teaming up together.

Dropping back down into an allowance should send Risk Tolerance to the winner’s circle at a short price, making him a compelling single to start the Pick 6.

Good luck!