Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Big carryovers at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Dec. 4 at Gulfstream Park and Turfway Park, along with horses to single in five-figure carryovers at Aqueduct and Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Woodbine 15% Profit Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 for the day) on your winning win, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers at Woodbine Thoroughbred each racing day in December.
• 2 for $2,000 Exacta Hit It and Split It at Turfway Park: Hit two exactas at Turfway Park for a chance to split a $2,000 prize pool each Thursday in December.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Aqueduct Feeder to 12/6 Remsen KDBC Qualifier
• $50 Fair Grounds Challenge
• $100 Fair Grounds Feeder to 12/20 Gun Runner KDBC Qualifier
• $50 Turfway Park Challenge
• $300 Turfway Park Feeder to 12/13 Turfway Synthetic Betting Championship

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 2: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 12:51 p.m. ET)

#6 Fierce Fairshinda (6-5) has finished eighth and fourth in her first two starts against maiden special weight competition at Saratoga and Gulfstream Park. She’s the fastest filly in this $12,500 maiden claiming field from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, so dropping in class should send her to the winner’s circle.

#2 Bella’s Breeze (6-1), the pacesetting runner-up in a $17,500 maiden claimer at Gulfstream last month, can get out in front and hang on for a spot in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Fierce Fairshinda (6-5)
• #2 Bella’s Breeze (6-1)
• #3 Soda (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 6 with 2

Turfway Park: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#12 Quarry (4-5) is probably too good for this field. He’s cracked the trifecta in three straight maiden special weights at Kentucky Downs, Churchill Downs, and Keeneland, most recently finishing second by a head in a 1 1/16-mile contest.

That near-miss yielded an 85 Brisnet Speed rating, easily the highest number belonging to any horse entered in Race 1. Let’s single Quarry to start a double wager and key him over #4 Chayton (5-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #12 Quarry (4-5)
• #5 Chayton (5-1)
• #8 Underappreciated (20-1)

Wagers

• $12 Double: 12 with 10
• $10 Exacta: 12 with 5
  Total: $22

Turfway Park: Race 2: $12,500 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 6:25 p.m. ET)

#10 Elusive Target (4-1) hasn’t been competitive in four starts this year, but he’s been facing much tougher competition. Last time out, he ran sixth in a $40,000 claimer at Churchill Downs.

Elusive Target’s Brisnet Speed ratings suggest he’ll be competitive while descending to the $12,500 level for trainer Joe Sharp, who strikes at a 31% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder. We’ll single Elusive Target to conclude our double wager, then bet him over longshot #4 P K Wood (15-1) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #10 Elusive Target (4-1)
• #4 P K Wood (15-1)
• #7 J P Hellish (7-2)

Wagers

• $8 Exacta: 10 with 4

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 3: $79,410 Pick 6 carryover (1:38 p.m. ET)

Racing resumes on Thursday at Aqueduct with a $79,410 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6.

Need a single to build tickets around? Check out #4 Shadow Surge (8-5) in Race 3, the opening leg of the Pick 6. Race 3 is a six-furlong $30,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races, and on Nov. 1, Shadow Surge ran second over this precise track, distance, and class level. He was beaten only half a length after carving out the pace.

Shadow Surge subsequently misfired when finishing seventh in a $50,000 claimer on Nov. 23 at Aqueduct, but he was beaten to the early lead and lost ground after steadying in traffic. Dropping back down in class should allow Shadow Surge to rebound and visit the winner’s circle at a short price.

Fair Grounds: Race 5: $15,925 Pick 5 carryover (3:45 p.m. ET)

The highlight of the Thursday card at Fair Grounds is a $15,925 carryover in the 50-cent Late Pick 5.

One of the most straightforward legs to handicap is Race 7, a $125,000 allowance optional claimer for two-year-old fillies dashing six furlongs. Only six horses have entered, and we recommend backing #2 Paving (2-1) as a single.

Paving debuted back in August in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park. After tracking the pace in fourth place, she took over down the homestretch to beat 11 rivals by 2 1/2 lengths, earning an 86 Brisnet Speed rating seven points higher than the par winning number for Thursday’s conditions at Fair Grounds.

Paving hasn’t run since, but she enters off sharp workouts and is adding Lasix for her return. First-time Lasix is a 26% winning angle for trainer Tom Amoss.

The form of Paving’s debut win has been flattered by third-place finisher Sister Troienne, who finished 6 1/4 lengths behind Paving. Sister Troienne has gone unbeaten in three subsequent starts, most notably winning the Wait a While S. at Gulfstream Park.

Paving looks well-spotted to win her return, so we’re willing to take a stand and single her in the Pick 5.

Good luck!