Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Carryovers at Aqueduct, Churchill

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, June 11 at Churchill Downs and Santa Anita, along with horses to play in carryovers at Churchill and Aqueduct.

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• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $2,000 Early Pick 4 Hit It and Split It at Churchill Downs: Hit the Early Pick 4 at Churchill Downs for a chance to split a $2,000 prize pool each racing Thursday in June.
• 8x Rewards Points at Charlottetown - Red Shores: Receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Charlottetown Red Shores each racing day until June 27.
• $250,000 Minimum Guarantee Jackpot 8: Play the Jackpot 8 at Churchill Downs on TwinSpires for a chance to win a guaranteed payout of $250,000 for any single winner of the entire Jackpot 8.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Belmont at the Big A Challenge
• $200 Belmont at the Big A Feeder to 6/20 Churchill Downs KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $60 Churchill Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 6/14 Churchill Downs NHC Qualifier
• $150 Churchill Downs Feeder to 6/13 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier
• $100 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $40 Churchill Downs Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $12,500 Starter Allowance (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:00 p.m. ET)

#5 Get Her Number (9-5) is the clear morning-line favorite after winning four starts in a row with strong Brisnet Speed ratings. However, he scratched twice from races at Churchill Downs last month (once due to unsoundness, once due to illness), and a relatively light recent work tab could leave him vulnerable in his first start since April.

Let’s try to beat Get Her Number with #3 Air of Defiance (7-2). He’s been in sharp form this year and recently won a $12,500 starter allowance sprinting six furlongs at Churchill by 2 3/4 lengths.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #3 Air of Defiance (7-2)
• #5 Get Her Number (9-5)
• #2 Highly Flammable (8-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #3 Air of Defiance

Churchill Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 6:27 p.m. ET)

#8 Lady Lux (3-1) was a bit unlucky not to win her debut in a five-furlong sprint over this track and class level on May 14. She tracked the pace, took over the lead, and then stayed on to finish second by 1 1/2 lengths while pulling 10 1/2 lengths clear of the third-place finisher.

The 83 Brisnet Speed rating Lady Lux earned is close to the par winning number (84) for Thursday’s conditions. Let’s place a win bet on Lady Lux and hope her enticing 3-1 morning-line odds hold up.

Selections

• #8 Lady Lux (3-1)
• #1 I Know Nothing (4-1)
• #10 Clever One (8-1)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #8 Lady Lux

Santa Anita: Race 8: Affirmed S. (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 7:36 p.m. ET)

After finishing fourth in his debut sprinting against future Pat Day Mile (G2) winner Crude Velocity, #4 Decisive Win (9-5) relished stretching out in distance for a one-mile maiden special weight on May 22 at Santa Anita. He led all the way to dominate by 5 1/2 lengths with a flashy 96 Brisnet Speed rating.

Decisive Win looks like a talented prospect, and he looms as the lone frontrunner in the Affirmed field, setting the stage for a favorable trip. Let’s bet him over Robert B. Lewis (G3) third-place finisher #3 Secured Freedom (8-5) in an exacta.

Selections

• #4 Decisive Win (9-5)
• #3 Secured Freedom (8-5)
• #1 One More Freud (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 4 with 3

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 3: $23,617 Pick 6 carryover (2:12 p.m. ET)

The betting highlight on Thursday at Aqueduct is a $23,617 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

If you’re looking for a single to build Pick 6 tickets around, our best recommendation is #3 Judge Boushay (5-2) in Race 6, a maiden special weight for New York-breds racing one mile over the main track.

Judge Boushay ran strongly over this track, distance, and class level on May 10. He dueled through increasingly quick fractions of :23.08, :45.82, and 1:09.74 before weakening to finish second. His form was flattered when King Farro—the other pace player who tired to finish third, 3 1/4 lengths behind Judge Boushay—returned to win his next start at the same class level.

Judge Boushay’s runner-up finish earned an 89 Brisnet Speed rating, easily the highest number belonging to any horse entered in Race 6. A similar performance on Thursday can send Judge Boushay to the winner’s circle for hot trainer Chad Brown.

Churchill Downs: Race 2: $4,998 Super High 5 carryover (5:29 p.m. ET)

Winning a share of Thursday’s $4,998 Super High 5 carryover at Churchill Downs won’t be easy.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 2, a $20,000 maiden claimer for three-year-olds and older horses racing 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Only seven have entered, but it’s tough to separate the contenders. #3 Al Amjaad (3-2) is the clear-morning line favorite after finishing second in a 1 1/8-mile contest over this track and class level on May 17, but he was soundly beaten and earned a modest 73 Brisnet Speed rating, so we don’t view him as a lock to win.

One longshot we recommend using, including on top of your tickets, is #7 Surfin’ M (10-1). He’s competed exclusively against tougher competition, and two starts back he ran second in a $30,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Oaklawn Park, earning a 77 Brisnet Speed rating.

Surfin’ M is highly inconsistent; across 10 starts, he’s cracked the trifecta five times and finished way up the track the other five times. But he’s fast enough to beat Thursday’s field if he brings his A game.

Good luck!