Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Carryovers at Oaklawn, Turfway

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Feb. 19 at Turf Paradise and Fair Grounds, along with analysis of carryovers at Oaklawn Park and Turfway Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 15% Odds Boost at Oaklawn Park: Receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 for the day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Oaklawn Park each racing Thursday in February.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Oaklawn Challenge
• $200 Oaklawn Feeder to 2/21 Oaklawn KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $40 Fair Grounds Challenge
• $160 Fair Grounds Feeder to 3/1 Rebel KDBC Qualifier
• $50 Turfway Park Challenge
• $80 Turfway Park Feeder to 3/7 Tampa Bay Derby/Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turf Paradise: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 4:35 p.m. ET)

#5 Ez Cowboy (2-1) owns sharp Brisnet Speed ratings and has finished second twice in sprints over this track and class level. He has tactical speed and should sit a comfortable trip on or near the lead while stretching out over one mile, setting the stage for a breakthrough victory.

We’ll single Ez Cowboy to start a double wager.

Selections

• #5 Ez Cowboy (2-1)
• #2 Monster Matt (7-2)
• #3 Pingo (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 Double: 5 with 2

Turf Paradise: Race 5: $30,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (five furlongs on dirt, 5:05 p.m. ET)

Formerly based in California, #2 Reno (5-2) owns the highest Brisnet Speed ratings in this field. He exits a runner-up finish over this track and class level on Jan. 19, and the winner of that race—Hela Forever—returned to take a $15,000 allowance optional claimer at Turf Paradise in comfortable fashion.

Reno has a strong chance to graduate in his first start under the care of red-hot trainer M. L. Pierce, a 44% winner at Turf Paradise this meet. We’ll single Reno to conclude our double wager, then bet him over California raider #7 Rocksalot (9-2) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #2 Reno (5-2)
• #7 Rocksalot (9-2)
• #3 Prowling Cat (5-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 2 with 7

Fair Grounds: Race 9: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on dirt, 5:45 p.m. ET)

#2 Speed Skater (2-1) debuted in a $50,000 maiden optional claimer racing 1 1/16 miles over the Fair Grounds turf course. She never got involved while finishing eighth, but she was beaten only 7 3/4 lengths, and the 69 Brisnet Speed rating she earned is only two points lower than the par winning number for Thursday’s conditions.

Dropping in class, switching to dirt, and adding blinkers should allow Speed Skater to challenge for victory. It helps that she has the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Marcelino Pedroza Jr. and Brad Cox in her corner. Over the last two months, Pedroza and Cox have won at a 35% rate teaming up together.

#3 Jailhouse Religion (5-2) can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Speed Skater (2-1)
• #3 Jailhouse Religion (5-2)
• #7 American Select (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 2 with 3

Carryover Watch

Oaklawn Park: Race 4: $9,959 Pick 6 carryover (3:03 p.m. ET)

One of the betting highlights on Thursday at Oaklawn Park is a $9,959 carryover in the $1 Classix Pick 6.

The sequence gets underway in Race 4, a $12,500 maiden claimer for three-year-olds and older horses dashing six furlongs. We recommend singling the five-year-old gelding #3 Capital Connection (4-1), who looms as a compelling contender in his first start since being claimed by trainer Genaro Garcia.

Back in 2024, Capital Connection recorded a quintet of top-four finishes in maiden special weights, including a pair of six-furlong sprints at Oaklawn. Along the way, he earned sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 81, 75, 83, 80, and 80. None of the other horses entered in Race 4 have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 76.

Following a long layoff, Capital Connection returned to action in a six-furlong $30,000 maiden claimer on Nov. 19 at Churchill Downs. The result? A respectable third-place finish. He was beaten only 2 1/2 lengths while earning a 79 Brisnet Speed rating.

Capital Connection’s Brisnet Speed rating advantage should make him tough to beat while dropping in class for a $12,500 maiden claimer. Bettors can feel confident singling Capital Connection to start the Pick 6.

Turfway Park: Race 10: $3,491 Super High 5 carryover (10:25 p.m. ET)

In the final race on Thursday at Turfway Park, a $3,491 Super High 5 carryover is up for grabs.

Solving the $1 wager looks a bit more straightforward than usual. Race 10 is a maiden special weight for three-year-olds who brought a final bid of $65,000 or less at their most recent auction, and three logical favorites in the six-furlong Tapeta sprint are worth building tickets around.

The first is #4 Jolted (4-1). In his first try over the Turfway Tapeta, he ran second over this distance and class level. The winner by two lengths, Lockstocknpharoah, came back to smash a $62,500 allowance optional claimer at Turfway by 8 1/4 lengths.

#2 High Honors (3-1) is likewise logical after cracking the trifecta in a trio of maiden special weights on turf in Kentucky. And don’t overlook #1 Gentleman Jim (7-2), who ran third in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint over this track and class level on Jan. 2, beaten only 3 1/4 lengths by next-out $62,500 allowance optional claiming winner Gnome.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 4 with 1,2 with 1,2 with 5,6,7,10,11,12 with 5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 ($84)

Good luck!