Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Cavalry Call tries dirt

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Oct. 8 at Keeneland and Presque Isle Downs, along with a horse to single in the mandatory-payout $4,424 Pick 6 carryover at Thistledown.

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• $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It at Keeneland: Opt in and hit the Late Pick 5 at Keeneland for a chance to split a $2,500 prize pool each racing Thursday in October, from Oct. 8 through Oct. 22.
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Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $90 Keeneland Bet and Set Feeder to 10/11 Keeneland CBC Qualifier
• $50 Belmont Park Challenge
• $200 Belmont Park Feeder to 10/17 Keeneland KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $280 Keeneland Bonus Feeder to 10/9 Keeneland KFC Qualifier
• $40 Keeneland Challenge
• $150 Keeneland Challenge
• $80 Charles Town Feeder to 10/16 Keeneland KDBC/BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 1:32 p.m. ET)

#5 Cavalry Call (7-2) failed to factor when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over the European-style turf course at Kentucky Downs, finishing 11th. But there are reasons to believe he can improve on Thursday.

For one, Cavalry Call is switching from turf to dirt, which is a 19% winning move for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse. For another, he’s dropping into a maiden special weight restricted to horses who brought a final bid of $65,000 or less at their most recent auction.

Let’s place a win bet on Cavalry Call.

Selections

• #5 Cavalry Call (7-2)
• #1 Soap Note (5-1)
• #2 Divine Truth (6-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #5 Cavalry Call

Keeneland: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 4:44 p.m. ET)

#8 Joy of Life (7-2) exits a pair of tough maiden special weights at Saratoga. In her debut, she finished third behind next-out Spinaway (G1) winner Summer Starlet. In her second start, she ran fourth against next-out Frizette (G1) runner-up Rum Twist.

The 78 Brisnet Speed rating Joy of Life earned in her second start is the highest number belonging to any filly entered in Race 8, so the stage appears set for Joy of Life to graduate third-time out. Let’s bet her to win.

Selections

• #8 Joy of Life (7-2)
• #5 Candy Illusion (6-1)
• #1 Pearl Lake (6-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #8 Joy of Life

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 4:51 p.m. ET)

#1 Just Grey Z (4-1) is an intriguing first-time starter from the barn of William Walden, who wins at a strong 21% rate with horses debuting over one mile or farther.

As a son of Justify out of a mare by Tapit, Just Grey Z is bred to relish running long. A lengthy series of workouts (including eight over the Tapeta track at Turfway Park) should have him fit for a competitive debut under hot jockey Gaddiel Martinez, so let’s bet Just Grey Z on top of #5 Lucky Lucky Gingin (5-2) and #4 Sinking Coin (3-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #1 Just Grey Z (4-1)
• #5 Lucky Lucky Gingin (5-2)
• #4 Sinking Coin (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 1 with 4,5 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Thistledown: Race 6: $4,424 Pick 6 mandatory payout (2:00 p.m. ET)

Thursday is closing day of the Thistledown meet, which means the $4,424 carryover in the 20-cent Pick 6 is slated for a mandatory payout.

Assembling a winning ticket on a modest budget appears manageable, at least from a mathematical perspective. The Pick 6 sequence contains only 39 horses (averaging 6.5 per race) before scratches, and the number of possible outcomes—74,088—is low by Pick 6 standards. Thanks to the 20-cent minimum bet amount, it should be possible to cover many of the logical contenders and still spend less than $100, or maybe less than $50.

With this goal in mind, we recommend kicking off your Pick 6 tickets by singling #4 Bend My Ear (8-5) in Race 6. This move alone will reduce the number of outcomes to consider down to 10,584, a big step toward lowering ticket costs.

Best single: Race 6: #4 Bend My Ear (8-5)

The opening leg of the Pick 6 is an allowance for fillies and mares who have never won two races. The six-furlong dirt dash has drawn only seven entries, and Bend My Ear should be tough to beat for hot trainer David Wolochuk, a 24% winner at Thistledown this meet.

Bend My Ear has made three starts at Thistledown this year, all in allowance sprints for non-winners of two races. In her first try—which marked her dirt debut—she finished third by 1 1/4 lengths. Her second start yielded a runner-up finish by 1 1/4 lengths, and her latest effort saw her close from four lengths back to finish second by a nose.

Those three efforts yielded improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 70, 75, and 80. None of the other horses entered in Race 6 have earned a rating higher than 78, so if Bend My Ear repeats or improves upon her last performance, she can secure a comfortable victory under jockey Mauro Cedillo, a 20% winner teaming up with Wolochuk over the last two months.

Some bettors may wish to use #6 Suzie Q’s Sister (2-1) as backup, since she finished a head in front of Bend My Ear when the latter made her Thistledown debut earlier this year. But Bend My Ear and Suzie Q’s Sister have met twice since then, and Bend My Ear finished ahead of Suzie Q’s Sister on both occasions. Since there’s plenty of speed to set up Bend My Ear’s late charge in Race 6, we’re confident she’ll come out on top.

Good luck!