Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Churchill’s $4,886 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Oct. 29 at Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including tickets for Churchill’s $4,886 Super High 5 carryover.

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Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $90 Churchill Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 11/14 Churchill Downs Claiming Crown NHC Qualifier
• $50 Belmont Park Challenge
• $80 Belmont Park Feeder to 11/6 Churchill Downs CBC Bonus Feeder
• $120 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $200 Churchill Downs Feeder to 11/7 Churchill Downs CBC Qualifier
• $40 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $40 Charles Town Challenge
• $80 Charles Town Feeder to 11/13 Churchill Downs NHC Bonus Feeder

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $100,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 1:00 p.m. ET)

#4 Quentin B (5-2) faltered at this track, distance, and class level on Sept. 25, finishing sixth. But that marked his first start back from a seven-month layoff. Last winter, he showed talent finishing second in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park, earning a 91 Brisnet Speed rating.

Trainer Dale Romans wins at a solid 19% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff, so if Quentin B rebounds to peak form, he can deliver a victory over #6 Bright Skittle (8-5). We’ll place a win bet and an exacta bet accordingly.

Selections

• #4 Quentin B (5-2)
• #6 Bright Skittle (8-5)
• #5 Dark Force (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Quentin B
• $10 Exacta: 4 with 6
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 1:30 p.m. ET)

#7 Nonna (5-2) has earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 88 and 86 while finishing second in a $50,000 maiden claimer at Ellis Park and third in a $100,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs.

None of the other horses entered in Race 1 have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 83. Nonna appears well-spotted to snag victory in his third career start, so let’s bet him to win and key him over #8 Guns Allowed (3-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #7 Nonna (5-2)
• #8 Guns Allowed (3-1)
• #4 Bold Stand (9-5)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Nonna
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 8
  Total: $25

Churchill Downs: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs on dirt, 4:25 p.m. ET)

#12 Positano John (5-1) is an unraced three-year-old trained by Philip Bauer, who wins at a 21% rate with first-time starters. Sharp workouts at Churchill Downs (including a bullet five furlongs in :59 4/5) suggest Positano John has the talent to factor on debut.

Let’s place a win bet on Positano John.

Selections

• #12 Positano John (5-1)
• #3 We Be Mischief (4-1)
• #7 Mojacar (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #12 Positano John

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 3: $4,886 Super High 5 carryover (1:58 p.m. ET)

Anyone who solves the $1 Super High 5 in Thursday’s third race at Churchill Downs will win a portion of $4,886 carryover.

You’ll want to wait until scratches are announced before structuring your tickets. Race 3 is a five-furlong turf allowance for two-year-olds who have never won two races, and the overwhelming morning-line favorite is #6 Ruiva (4-5), who is also the first also-eligible entrant in Friday’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) at Keeneland.

Ruiva’s form is strong. She exits a narrow defeat in the Indian Summer (G3) sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland, a race in which she set a blazing pace before weakening to finish fourth by a neck. Dropping in class and cutting back to five furlongs at Churchill Downs should make her tough to catch, but there’s a chance she’ll scratch from this allowance in hopes of gaining entry into the Juvenile Turf Sprint.

Wagers

If Ruiva competes at Churchill, we recommend keying her on top in the Super High 5. Consider betting a ticket like this one:

• $1 Super High 5: 6 with 3,5,7,8 with 3,5,7,8 with 3,5,7,8 with 3,5,7,8 ($24)

If Ruiva scratches, the battle for first place figures to be a lot more competitive. We recommend building tickets around #3 Trim Castle (10-1), counting on him to finish in the top three:

• $1 Super High 5: 3 with 5,7,8 with 5,7,8 with 5,7,8 with ALL ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 5,7,8 with 3 with 5,7,8 with 5,7,8 with ALL ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 5,7,8 with 5,7,8 with 3 with 5,7,8 with ALL ($18)
  Total: $54

Trim Castle is dropping down in class and distance after finishing 10th in the 1 1/16-mile Bourbon (G2) and fifth in the one-mile Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile S. Three starts back, in the only turf sprint he’s contested to date, Trim Castle finished third in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance at Kentucky Downs. The winner, How’s Al Today, subsequently won the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile and is the morning-line favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1).

The 86 Brisnet Speed rating Trim Castle earned in that allowance sprint is a solid fit for Thursday’s field. If he returns to that level of form, he can vie for victory at a nice price.

Other logical contenders in Race 3 include #5 Allura (8-1), runner-up in the 5 1/2-furlong Bolton Landing S. at Saratoga; #7 Reza (7-2), who demolished a five-furlong maiden special weight on Tapeta at Gulfstream Park by eight lengths; and #8 Cactus Closer (6-1), who closed belatedly from behind Ruiva’s hot pace to finish sixth by 1 1/4 lengths in the Indian Summer.

Good luck!