Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Churchill’s $5,044 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Sept. 18 at Aqueduct, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Churchill Downs, including tickets for Churchill’s $5,044 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Churchill Downs WIN Ladder: Place $10+ win wagers at Churchill Downs to split a $3,000 prize pool on Thursdays in September.
• 8x Points at Little Brown Jug: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) in all races at Delaware County Fairgrounds from Sept. 14-18.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Belmont at Aqueduct Challenge
• $200 Belmont at Aqueduct Feeder to 9/20 Pennsylvania Derby/Churchill Downs BCBC Qualifier
• $50 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $200 Churchill Downs Feeder to 9/27 Churchill Downs KDBC/BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Aqueduct: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 3:15 p.m. ET)

Purchased for over $560,000 as a yearling, #5 Belle of Georgia (6-1) is a beautifully bred daughter of Wootton Bassett out of Chica Whopa, who has already foaled three turf stakes winners.

Belle of Georgia is bred to shine on grass and hails from the barn of Miguel Clement, a 21% winner with horses debuting on turf. Let’s place a win bet on Belle of Georgia and hope her 6-1 morning-line odds hold up.

Selections

• #5 Belle of Georgia (6-1)
• #10 Isadora Duncan (7-2)
• #9 Fraudster (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Belle of Georgia

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:47 p.m. ET)

#9 Grand Harbor (4-1) looks like a threat to win on debut for trainer Aaron West, who has gone 7-for-34 (21%) debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Horseshoe Indianapolis since 2021.

Grand Harbor worked a bullet half-mile from the Horseshoe Indianapolis starting gate last month in :47 2/5, and she’s slated to be ridden by jockey Samuel Bermudez, a 32% winner teaming up with West over the last two months.

A win bet is in order, along with a small exacta using #7 Dreaming Bonita (7-2) for second place.

Selections

• #9 Grand Harbor (4-1)
• #7 Dreaming Bonita (7-2)
• #8 Higher Wish (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #9 Grand Harbor
• $5 Exacta: 9 with 7
  Total: $25

Churchill Downs: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs on dirt, 7:28 p.m. ET)

#1 Kenz (7-5) has finished second in her first two starts against maiden special weight competition at Ellis Park. In her second try, she was beaten only a neck while earning an 84 Brisnet Speed rating two points higher than the par winning number for Thursday’s conditions.

After betting Kenz to win, let’s get a bit creative and play her on top of an exacta using longshot #10 Supersonic Agenda (30-1) for second place. Supersonic Agenda has put together an eye-catching work tab at Thistledown and is trained by Ricardo Bailey, whose in-the-money rate with first-time starters stands at an impressive 67%.

Selections

• #1 Kenz (7-5)
• #10 Supersonic Agenda (30-1)
• #7 Raspberry (8-1)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #1 Kenz
• $8 Exacta: 1 with 10
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $5,044 Super High 5 carryover (5:00 p.m. ET)

The opening race on Thursday at Churchill Downs is a rather ordinary $80,000 claimer for three-year-olds and older horses who have never won two races.

However, the 6 1/2-furlong dirt dash is enticing from a betting standpoint because anyone playing the $1 Super High 5 has a shot to take down all or part of a $5,044 carryover.

Seven horses have entered Race 1, so there are only 2,520 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze.

#2 Risk It (2-1) is the favorite while dropping in class. Two years ago, he was a graded stakes-caliber juvenile who ran second in the Iroquois (G3) and fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs. He’s failed to progress since then, but he remains an effective competitor at Churchill. In early summer, he closed ground to finish second by half a length in a six-furlong allowance over this track, earning a 90 Brisnet Speed rating higher than the par winning number (89) for Thursday’s conditions.

Dropping in class might be all Risk It needs to secure his long-awaited second win. It helps that he has the hot jockey/trainer duo of Tyler Gaffalione and David Jacobson in his corner.

Underneath, #7 Vasa (5-2) is a logical contender. The Southern California shipper won a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar in July, then followed up with a fourth-place finish in one-mile $50,000 allowance optional claimer over the same track. Cutting back to a sprint should help Vasa land a top-three finish under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.

#1 Countthebrave (5-1) earned a solid 87 Brisnet Speed rating when second by a neck in a six-furlong $75,000 allowance optional claimer at Horseshoe Indianapolis last time out. He scored his lone win in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last year, so there are reasons to believe Countthebrave can snag a top-five finish even while facing older rivals for the first time.

New York raider #6 Timing Difference (4-1) warrants respect too. He’s been freshened since winning a $75,000 maiden claimer at Aqueduct in May, and trainer Brian Knippenberg wins at a 29% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 7 with 1,4,5,6 with 1,4,5,6 with ALL ($36)
• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 1,6 with 7 with 1,4,5,6 with ALL ($18)
  Total: $54

Good luck!