Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Churchill’s $6,212 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Sept. 25 at Aqueduct and Churchill Downs, including tickets for Churchill’s $6,212 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Churchill Downs WIN Ladder: Place $10+ win wagers at Churchill Downs to split a $3,000 prize pool on Thursdays in September.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Belmont at Aqueduct Feeder to 9/27 Churchill Downs KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $40 Belmont at Aqueduct Challenge
• $150 Churchill Downs Feeder to 10/4 Keeneland Fall Challenge Qualifier
• $50 Churchill Downs Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Aqueduct: Race 6: $75,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (six furlongs on turf, 3:40 p.m. ET)

#5 Zuby (6-1) is an unraced daughter of Vekoma, who sires a sharp 18% winners from first-time turf starters. Zuby has posted several half-mile workouts on grass and looks like a live win threat for trainer George Weaver, who strikes at a 22% rate with horses debuting on turf.

Let’s try a win bet on Zuby.

Selections

• #5 Zuby (6-1)
• #9 Scorch (9-2)
• #4 Defining Role (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Zuby

Churchill Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 6:59 p.m. ET)

Although #6 Soaring High (6-1) is bred to shine running one mile or farther, the daughter of Curlin has shown speed during morning workouts. On Sept. 13, she clocked a bullet five furlongs at Keeneland in :59 3/5. Last Friday, she followed up with a bullet half-mile from the Keeneland starting gate in :47 3/5.

Let’s place a win bet on Soaring High, then single her to start a small double wager.

Selections

• #6 Soaring High (6-1)
• #5 Counting Stars (9-2)
• #11 Funny Bunny (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Soaring High
• $5 Double: 6 with 8
  Total: $25

Churchill Downs: Race 6: $80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 3/8 miles on turf, 7:28 p.m. ET)

#8 Common Defense (2-1) was tons the best when stretching out for a 1 1/2-mile grass allowance at Kentucky Downs three weeks ago. After rating in midfield, he exploded down the homestretch to dominate by eight lengths.

We’ll count on Common Defense to keep his momentum rolling with a victory over New York raider #6 Zverev (3-1), who won a 1 3/8-mile $50,000 allowance optional claimer over the Saratoga turf last month.

Selections

• #8 Common Defense (2-1)
• #6 Zverev (3-1)
• #5 Barricade (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Common Defense
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 6
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $6,212 Super High 5 carryover (5:00 p.m. ET)

Thursday’s evening card at Churchill Downs kicks off with a $6,212 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs in Race 1, a $75,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on turf.

Mathematically speaking, assembling a winning ticket for the $1 wager shouldn’t be difficult. Eight horses have entered Race 1, so there are only 6,720 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze.

We rank #2 Running Game (5-2) as the filly to beat. Two starts back, she finished a pacesetting second in a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, beaten less than one length while earning an 84 Brisnet Speed rating significantly higher than the par winning number (77) for Thursday’s conditions.

Running Game subsequently tired after a speed duel to finish 10th in a one-mile maiden special weight over the tricky European-style turf course at Kentucky Downs. Returning to Churchill and dropping in class should send Running Game to the winner’s circle under hot jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., a 20% winner at Churchill this meet.

Let’s key Running Game on top in the Super High 5. Underneath, we’ll emphasize #6 Risky Wave (3-1) and #7 Les Is Best (3-1). Les Is Best has cracked the trifecta in multiple maiden special weights and even finished ahead of Running Game when third at Kentucky Downs last month. Meanwhile, Risky Wave edged Les Is Best by half a length when they ran second and fourth in a one-mile $50,000 maiden claimer at Ellis Park during the summer.

#1 Sevenon (15-1) is dropping in class and stretching out in distance off a pair of 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weights at Ellis Park, opening the door for improvement.

#4 McKinzie’s Glory (7-2) has a shot to factor based off her nose defeat in a 1 1/16-mile $50,000 maiden claimer at Saratoga two starts back.

We’ll round out the bottom slots of our tickets with first-time starter #3 Stormin’ Nancy (10-1) and second-time turf starter #5 Lindy Can (12-1).

• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 6,7 with 6,7 with 1,3,4,5 with 1,3,4,5 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 6,7 with 1,4 with 6,7 with 1,3,4,5 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 6,7 with 1,4 with 1,3,4,5 with 6,7 ($12)
  Total: $48

Good luck!