Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Colonial’s $15,458 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Aug. 6 at Colonial Downs, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Del Mar, including analysis of Colonial’s $15,458 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in August.
• 15% Across the Board Boost at Colonial Downs: Opt in to receive a 15% bonus on any winning individual win, place, or show wager, or combination of win, place, and show wagers, at Colonial Downs each racing Thursday in August.
• 15% Odds Boost at Saratoga: Opt in to receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Saratoga each racing Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday in August.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $68 Saratoga Bet and Set Feeder to 8/9 Saratoga NHC Qualifier
• $50 Colonial Downs Challenge
• $120 Colonial Downs Feeder to 8/16 Saratoga SSBC Qualifier
• $250 Saratoga Feeder to 8/8 Saratoga KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $40 Saratoga Challenge
• $150 Saratoga Challenge
• $80 Woodbine Feeder to 8/14 King's Plate Bonus Qualifier
• $88 Charles Town Feeder to 8/14 Saratoga SSBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Trainer Brendan Walsh has been hot at Colonial Downs this meet, going 9-3-1-2 (33%). This bodes well for Walsh’s unraced juvenile #6 Royal County Down (5-1), a $370,000 yearling acquisition.

Royal County Down boasts a promising pedigree. She’s a full-sibling to two-time stakes winner Call Another Play (who broke her maiden as a two-year-old at Colonial Downs) and a half-sibling to four-time graded stakes winner Future Is Now (an accomplished turf sprinter).

Royal County Down has put together a lengthy work tab at Turfway Park, and at 5-1, she’s worthy of a win bet. We'll also key her over #5 Cakey (2-1) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #6 Royal County Down (5-1)
• #5 Cakey (2-1)
• #9 Hugh’s Legend (30-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Royal County Down
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 5
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 5:47 p.m. ET)

#10 Bozzetto (7-2) debuted in an off-the-turf maiden special weight racing one mile and 70 yards at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The Juddmonte homebred carved out the pace before tiring in the homestretch to finish third by four lengths.

As a son of Not This Time out of the Tapit mare Maquette, Bozzetto has a pedigree with potential for success on turf. It’s also encouraging to note trainer Brad Cox wins at a 28% rate with second-time starters, and at a 33% rate with horses running long for the second time.

Let’s load up with a win bet on Bozzetto.

Selections

• #10 Bozzetto (7-2)
• #8 Carnival Lad (12-1)
• #11 Bridgesong (5-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #10 Bozzetto

Del Mar: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 7:03 p.m. ET)

#1 Midnight Buck (10-1) debuts off a series of quick half-mile workouts at Del Mar, capped off by one from the starting gate in :47 3/5. Both his sire (Mo Forza) and dam sire (Gervino) won graded stakes on grass, so Midnight Buck has the pedigree to shine on turf.

Throw in the fact trainer Luis Mendez wins at a respectable 13% rate with horses debuting on turf, and Midnight Buck is worthy of a win bet if he stays anywhere near his 10-1 morning-line odds.

Selections

• #1 Midnight Buck (10-1)
• #6 Can’tafford Not To (4-1)
• #2 Liberty Cat (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Midnight Buck

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $3,051 Pick 6 carryover (2:00 p.m. ET)
Colonial Downs: Race 5: $15,458 Pick 5 carryover (2:30 p.m. ET)

A pair of carryovers add betting value to the Thursday card at Colonial Downs.

The 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6, with its modest 15% takeout rate, features a $3,051 carryover. The 50-cent Late Pick 5 is even more enticing, with a prize pool of $15,458 and a takeout rate of just 12%.

The Pick 6 and the Late Pick 5 overlap starting in Race 5, a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for two-year-olds. A large field has entered, and separating the contenders isn’t easy. Bettors will want to consider the quick-working first-time starter #2 Start the Disco (7-2) and the experienced #12 Fields of Grey (4-1), as well as #11 Court Night (4-1), who has the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Paco Lopez and Michael Trombetta in his corner.

Race 6 is a maiden special weight for fillies and mares racing 1 1/8 miles on turf. #1 Belle (6-5) is the morning-line favorite after finishing second in a maiden special weight on Tapeta at Woodbine, but she’s yet to race on turf, and switching surfaces is a question mark. #9 Lisa Joy (6-1), a former British campaigner making her second stateside start for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey, is an intriguing alternative.

Race 7 is a six-furlong allowance. #5 It’s Our Time (9-5) will be formidable if he replicates his runaway debut win from August 2025, or even his fourth-place finish from the 2025 Champagne (G1). But he faltered as the favorite in his 2026 debut, finishing sixth in a $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs, so he’s not a lock to win on Thursday. Logical challengers include #1 Village Person (4-1) and #3 Crossingthechannel (3-1).

The penultimate leg of both the Pick 6 and the Late Pick 5 is Race 8, a $10,000 starter allowance for fillies and mares racing one mile on turf. The 10-horse field is led by #7 Put a Rock On It (5-2), winner of a $16,000 starter allowance at Colonial last month. But two starts back, she was beaten in a Laurel Park $16,000 starter allowance by #4 Let’s Dance Again (8-1) and #6 Bay Street (7-2), who are back to challenge again. Any of these three could challenge for victory, and so could #2 Americandreammaker (3-1), who has won three starts in a row.

The card closes out with Race 9, a $16,000 claimer in which fillies and mares will travel one mile on turf. An overflow field of 14 horses, including two also-eligibles, has entered. Spreading deep may be necessary to ensure survival. One intriguing contender at a bit of a price is #1 Katarzyna (8-1), who posted the field’s highest last-out Brisnet Speed rating (a 78) when running fourth in a Virginia-restricted $16,000 claimer over this course and distance. The winner, Set Ablaze, came back to dominate a non-state-restricted $16,000 claimer at Colonial by 5 1/2 lengths. Don’t leave Katarzyna off your tickets.

Good luck!