Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Colonial’s $22,340 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Aug. 13 at Colonial Downs, Saratoga, and Del Mar, including analysis of Colonial’s $22,340 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in August.
• 15% Across the Board Boost at Colonial Downs: Opt in to receive a 15% bonus on any winning individual win, place, or show wager, or combination of win, place, and show wagers, at Colonial Downs each racing Thursday in August.
• 15% Odds Boost at Saratoga: Opt in to receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Saratoga each racing Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday in August.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $64 Saratoga Bet and Set Feeder to 8/16 Saratoga King of the Turf Qualifier
• $50 Colonial Downs Challenge
• $200 Colonial Downs Feeder to 8/22 Saratoga KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $150 Saratoga Feeder to 8/16 Saratoga SSBC Qualifier
• $150 Saratoga Challenge
• $40 Saratoga Challenge
• $80 Charles Town Feeder to 8/21 Saratoga KDBC/BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 12:35 p.m. ET)

The fastest of the experienced runners in this field of juvenile fillies is #2 Alta Vista Chapel (4-1). She earned a 59 when debuting with a fifth-place finish in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Colonial Downs.

Trainer John Robb wins at a 23% rate with horses tackling the maiden claiming ranks for the first time, so Alta Vista Chapel ought to contend while dropping in class for her second start. At 4-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #2 Alta Vista Chapel (4-1)
• #3 My Lucky Wife (6-1)
• #7 Befuddled (7-5)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Alta Vista Chapel

Saratoga: Race 8: Birdstone S. (1 3/4 miles on dirt, 5:14 p.m. ET)

#1 Parchment Party (8-5) is an obvious favorite; he won this race last year and boasts victories in the Temperence Hill S. and Isaac Murphy Marathon racing 1 1/2 miles this year.

But don’t underestimate #4 Passing Game (15-1) at double-digit odds. He showed the stamina to stay two miles when finishing second in the John Forbes Memorial S. on turf last fall, but he’s also compiled a respectable 6-2-2-0 tally on dirt.

Let’s place a small win bet on Passing Game, then bet him in the exacta with Parchment Party.

Selections

• #4 Passing Game (15-1)
• #1 Parchment Party (8-5)
• #7 Jokestar (4-1)

Wagers

• $10 to win on #4 Passing Game
• $7 Exacta: 4 with 1
• $3 Exacta: 1 with 4
  Total: $20

Del Mar: Race 1: $80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles on turf, 5:00 p.m. ET)

#5 Mr. A. P. (8-5), runner-up in the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), recently returned from a long layoff in the one-mile Oceanside H. at Del Mar. Making his turf debut, he raced within three lengths of the early lead before staying on to finish third by six lengths.

Dropping in class for his second start back should help Mr. A. P. snag a victory. #1 Iriseach (3-1), fifth in the Oceanside, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Mr. A. P. (8-5)
• #1 Iriseach (3-1)
• #4 Zeus’s Echo (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 5 with 1

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 6: $4,250 Pick 6 carryover (1:35 p.m. ET)
Colonial Downs: Race 7: $22,350 Pick 5 carryover (2:06 p.m. ET)

Fans of traditional, non-jackpot carryovers have two options to pursue on Thursday at Colonial Downs.

The elusive 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6, with its 15% takeout rate, boasts a $4,250 prize pool.

The carryover for the 50-cent Late Pick 5, which features a 12% takeout rate, is over five times larger at $22,350.

Pick 6 bettors looking for a single to build tickets around should check out #5 White Rocks (6-5) in Race 6, which drew only six entries. Race 6 is a $50,000 allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares racing 7 1/2 furlongs on dirt, and the conditions should suit White Rocks perfectly.

White Rocks earned a field-best 93 Brisnet Speed rating when competing at this track and class level on July 22. Racing one mile, she set quick fractions of :22.56, :45.15, and 1:09.31 before faltering in the final furlong to finish second by one length.

During the spring, White Rocks earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 90 and 91 when recording top-three finishers in $80,000 allowance optional claimers racing one mile at Churchill Downs. Cutting back to 7 1/2 furlongs for her second try at Colonial Downs can yield a victory, especially if she’s able to set a more relaxed pace.

It’s a lot harder to find a viable single in the Late Pick 5 since every race in the sequence contains at least 10 horses. If you need a single to reduce ticket costs, you can try #8 Ready for Trouble (5-2) in Race 7, a $10,000 claimer for fillies and mares dashing 5 1/2 furlongs on turf.

We’re a bit skeptical of morning-line favorite #5 Clay Soldier (9-5), who exits a sixth-place finish at this course, distance, and class level. In contrast, Ready for Trouble rallied nicely to win a five-furlong grass allowance at Delaware Park last month by half a length, earning an 83 Brisnet Speed rating six points higher than the par winning number for Thursday’s conditions at Colonial.

Ready for Trouble should be formidable while dropping into the claiming ranks for hot trainer Jamie Ness, a 29% winner at Colonial this meet.

Good luck!