Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Colonial’s $30,505 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Aug. 28 at Saratoga, Kentucky Downs, and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a horse to single in the $30,505 Pick 6 carryover at Colonial Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Colonial Downs $3,000 Turf Trial: Play the Colonial Downs Turf Trial (involving $10+ win bets in turf races at Colonial Downs) for a chance to split a $3,000 prize pool on Wednesdays and Thursdays in August.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Saratoga Feeder to 8/30 Saratoga/Kentucky Downs MMBC Qualifier
• $50 Saratoga Challenge
• $150 Kentucky Downs Feeder to 9/4 Kentucky Downs MMBC Qualifier
• $40 Kentucky Downs Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Saratoga: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 1:42 p.m. ET)

#6 Cadenza (4-1) showed speed when debuting in a six-furlong maiden special weight over the Saratoga main track, dueling for the lead before weakening to finish fifth in a 10-horse field.

As a half-sibling to five stakes winners and four turf winners, Cadenza has the potential to develop into a classy filly competing on grass. Under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., Cadenza is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #6 Cadenza (4-1)
• #5 Bashful Baby (10-1)
• #10 Market Hours (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Cadenza

Kentucky Downs: Race 6: Allowance (6 1/2 furlongs on turf, 4:13 p.m. ET)

#3 Vulcan’s Boots (6-1) is a third-time starter from the barn of Kelsey Danner, who has gone 3-for-14 (21%) saddling experienced juveniles at Kentucky Downs since 2021.

Vulcan’s Boots failed to factor after breaking slowly in his debut, but he improved sharply in a one-mile maiden special weight over the Colonial Downs turf two weeks ago. After tracking a slow pace in second place, he blazed his final two quarter-miles in :23.70 and :23.73 to win by three lengths.

Vulcan’s Boots’ strong finish is a sign of potential, and cutting back to 6 1/2 furlongs over the testing European-style turf course at Kentucky Downs shouldn’t be problematic. Let’s try a win bet on Vulcan’s Boots, then key him over impressive Saratoga debut winner #4 Johnny’s Red Storm (9-5) in an exacta.

Selections

• #3 Vulcan’s Boots (6-1)
• #4 Johnny’s Red Storm (9-5)
• #9 Intricate Spirit (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Vulcan’s Boots
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 4
  Total: $25

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

Trainer Cipriano Contreras enjoys strong success with first-time starters, winning at a 24% rate. At Horseshoe Indianapolis specifically, Contreras has gone 6-for-28 (21%) debuting juveniles in dirt sprints since 2020.

These stats bode well for #2 Cloudless Day (4-1). The unraced two-year-old filly has posted nine timed workouts at Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a swift five furlongs in 1:00 2/5, so it appears she has some ability.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #2 Cloudless Day (4-1)
• #9 Obvious Agenda (9-2)
• #8 Dreaming Bonita (10-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Cloudless Day

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $30,505 Pick 6 carryover (1:54 p.m. ET)

The 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 at Colonial Downs has proven inscrutable as of late. Five consecutive race days have passed without anyone assembling a winning ticket, which means Thursday’s Pick 6 boasts a quintuple carryover worthy $30,505.

There’s no guarantee bettors will hit the Pick 6 on Thursday either. Before scratches, the sequence contains 62 horses (averaging about 10.3 per race) and 1,158,300 possible outcomes. If you do manage to solve the Pick 6, you’ll almost certainly cash a lucrative payoff.

Finding a single in a sequence this competitive isn’t easy. But it may be necessary in order to keep ticket costs affordable. With this in mind, we’ve identified #8 She’s Honed In (8-5) as a viable single candidate in Race 5, a $50,000 maiden optional claimer for two-year-old fillies racing one mile over the inner turf course.

She’s Honed In has already run once over this course, distance, and class level. In her Aug. 8 debut, she suffered a subpar start and dropped a dozen lengths off the early pace, but then she rallied with interest to finish third by five lengths.

That effort earned a 75 Brisnet Speed rating three points higher than the par winning number (72) for Thursday’s conditions at Colonial. The only other horse in Thursday’s field who has earned a remotely similar number is #2 My Lady Jbella (5-2) with a 71, but she finished 3 3/4 lengths behind She’s Honed In when running sixth on Aug. 8.

In addition to her promising form and sharp Brisnet Speed rating, She’s Honed In has encouraging stats in her corner. She’s trained by Kelsey Danner, who wins at a 17% rate with horses running on grass for the second time and at a 21% rate with horses running long for the second time. Furthermore, She’s Honed In is slated to be ridden by Axel Concepcion, a 29% winner teaming up with Danner over the last two months.

For all these reasons, we’re confident She’s Honed In will deliver on her morning-line odds and secure victory in her second start.

Good luck!