Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Colonial’s $4,364 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, July 10 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Saratoga, along with horses to play in the $4,364 Pick 6 carryover at Colonial Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 10x Points on Harness Racing: Receive 10x points on all wagers at harness tracks (excluding show bets) each Thursday in July.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
• 20x Tournament Points Boost: Receive 20x points on all tournament wagers from July 1 through July 31.
• Colonial Downs $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Play the Late Pick 5 at Colonial Downs each Thursday in July for a chance to split a $2,500 prize pool each promotional day.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $75 Newmarket Challenge
• $50 Colonial Downs Challenge
• $200 Colonial Downs Feeder to 7/14 Ellis Park MMBC Qualifier
• $160 Charles Town Feeder to 7/20 Woodbine BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

Since 2020, trainer John Ortiz has gone 7-for-16 (44%) debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

This angle points to Ortiz’s unraced two-year-old #3 Just Deeds (9-2) as a win threat. The son of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Liam’s Map enters off a series of half-mile workouts in Kentucky and has the potential to shine from an early age, considering Liam’s Map is the sire of Grade 1-winning juveniles like Juju’s Map, Basin, and Wicked Whisper.

Let’s place a win bet on Just Deeds.

Selections

• #3 Just Deeds (9-2)
• #5 Ganaas (2-1)
• #6 Gnome (7-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #3 Just Deeds

Saratoga: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 4:02 p.m. ET)

Trainer George Weaver has enjoyed success debuting juveniles in turf sprints at Saratoga, going 2-for-3 (67%) since 2023. Perhaps #10 Cy Fair (8-1) can boost that tally to 3-for-4.

A daughter of early-maturing juvenile Not This Time, Cy Fair has posted a couple of half-mile workouts over the Saratoga training track turf course and is slated to be ridden by Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. At 8-1, she’s worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #10 Cy Fair (8-1)
• #6 Aporia (4-1)
• #4 Cooperation (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #10 Cy Fair

Saratoga: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/8 miles on dirt, 4:35 p.m. ET)

#2 Endorse (8-5) showed some potential when debuting in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga last month. Facing 10 rivals, she pressed the pace and took the lead before tiring in the final furlong to finish third by 5 1/4 lengths.

As a daughter of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, Endorse has the pedigree to shine while stretching out over 1 1/8 miles for trainer Todd Pletcher, who wins at a 21% rate with horses running long for the first time.

#5 Lost Horizon (4-1) can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Endorse (8-5)
• #5 Lost Horizon (4-1)
• #6 Resurge (7-2)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #2 Endorse
• $8 Exacta: 2 with 5
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 6: $4,364 Pick 6 carryover (1:28 p.m. ET)

No one hit the “Old Dominion 6” on the opening day of the Colonial Downs meet. As a result, the 50-cent Pick 6 wager with a 15% takeout rate boasts a $4,364 carryover for Thursday’s card.

After analyzing the entries, we’ve identified a compelling favorite and a live longshot that Pick 6 bettors won’t want to leave off their tickets:

Race 6: #13 La Scaloneta (2-1)

The opening leg of the Pick 6 is a $16,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races, and if morning-line favorite La Scaloneta draws in off the also-eligible list, she’ll be a formidable win threat in the one-mile turf test.

If you draw a line through La Scaloneta’s recent misfire in a $50,000 starter allowance on dirt, her form is solid. Two starts back, she employed pace-tracking tactics to finish second by a neck in a $25,000 claimer for non-winners of two races. Three starts back, she rallied from last place in an eight-horse field to finish third in a $35,000 claimer for non-winners of two races. Both of those contests took place over one mile at Gulfstream Park.

Dropping down to the $16,000 level might be all La Scaloneta needs to visit the winner’s circle.

Race 8: #10 Tosca (12-1)

Race 8 is a maiden special weight for Virginia-restricted juveniles sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, and we believe Tosca has a big chance to shine at double-digit odds.

Tosca debuted with a decent try in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park. Facing 10 rivals, the chestnut filly settled in midfield before advancing to finish third behind runaway winner Mythical, who returned to dominate the Tremont S. at Saratoga.

Since 2023, trainer Mary Lightner has gone 4-for-12 (33%) saddling experienced juveniles at Colonial Downs, a statistic suggesting Tosca has a strong chance to shine while facing (presumably) easier foes in her second start.

In addition to including Tosca on Pick 6 tickets, we suggest betting her to win:

• $30 to win on #10 Tosca

Good luck!