Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Double at Del Mar

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, July 24 at Saratoga and Del Mar, along with horses to play in carryovers at Colonial Downs and Del Mar.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 10x Points on Harness Racing: Receive 10x points on all wagers at harness tracks (excluding show bets) each Thursday in July.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
• 20x Tournament Points Boost: Receive 20x points on all tournament wagers from July 1 through July 31.
• Colonial Downs $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Play the Late Pick 5 at Colonial Downs each Thursday in July for a chance to split a $2,500 prize pool each promotional day.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Saratoga Challenge
• $200 Saratoga Feeder to 7/28 Ellis Park MMBC Qualifier
• $160 Charles Town Feeder to 8/2 Whitney KDBC/NHC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Saratoga: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 2:18 p.m. ET)

#4 Imagine John (5-2) has shown talent in his first two starts at Saratoga. First, he ran third in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight. Then he ran third behind the exciting Obliteration in the six-furlong Sanford (G3).

Imagine John doesn’t appear to be facing the toughest field on Thursday, so dropping back down in class should help him snatch a victory. #5 Bobrovsky (2-1), runner-up on debut at Churchill Downs, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #4 Imagine John (5-2)
• #5 Bobrovsky (2-1)
• #2 Waitin’onasunnyday (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Imagine John
• $10 Exacta: 4 with 5
  Total: $30

Del Mar: Race 7: $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 8:00 p.m. ET)

#2 Splendora (7-5) is dropping in class after finishing second, fourth, second, and second in a quartet of graded stakes. Her last two starts in non-stakes races yielded blowout sprint wins, and she followed up with a runner-up finish in the seven-furlong La Brea (G1).

Splendora is the fastest entrant in this $100,000 allowance optional claimer from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, so let’s single her to start a double bet.

Selections

• #2 Splendora (7-5)
• #1 Scary Fast Ride (5-1)
• #3 Ooty (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 Double: 2 with 3,11 ($50)

Del Mar: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 8:30 p.m. ET)

Two runners loom as key contenders in this maiden special weight for fillies and mares who have started for a claiming price of $12,500 or less.

#3 Dixie’s Delight (4-1) showed speed when finishing second in a $12,500 maiden claimer at Los Alamitos last month, her dirt debut. The third-place finisher flattered the form by returning to win her next start over the same track and class level.

#11 Perfect Life (6-1) launched a nice late rally to finish third by 1 1/2 lengths in her debut over this class level at Los Alamitos. She’s adding Lasix for her second start and has a chance to improve.

Let’s box these two in an exacta.

Selections

• #3 Dixie’s Delight (4-1)
• #11 Perfect Life (6-1)
• #12 Cote Blanc (12-1)

Wagers

• $5 Exacta: box 3,11 ($10)

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 6: $3,343 Pick 6 carryover (1:28 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of Thursday’s $3,343 Pick 6 carryover at Colonial Downs, you’ll have to solve a race in which there isn’t any proven form whatsoever to analyze.

The 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 gets underway in Race 6, a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies racing one mile over the inner turf course. Only six horses have entered, but all of them are first-time starters, so we’ll have to rely on workouts, pedigrees, and trainer stats to find the winner.

Let’s start with trainer stats. Only two of the fillies are conditioned by trainers who win at higher than an 8% rate with horses debuting on turf. Those are #1 Black Rose (2-1) from the barn of Mark Casse (12%) and #3 Coach Mazzula (3-1) under the care of Brittany Russell (13%).

How about pedigrees? #2 Zoomaha (7-2) is a daughter of Omaha Beach, who sires 14% winners on turf and 13% winners from first-time turf starters. The sire of #4 Lady Faye (8-1) is Mendelssohn, a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) hero who sires 12% winners in those two turf categories. Curlin, the sire of #5 Ultimate Love (3-1), likewise boasts duel 12% stats.

The broodmare sires of Zoomaha and Lady Faye are Animal Kingdom (14% and 18%) and New Bay (15% and 13%), and the dam of Ultimate Love has foaled two turf winners, so we’ll rank these three fillies as the best-bred grass candidates.

Now for workouts. None of the entrants have posted a timed workout on turf, but Black Rose, Zoomaha, and Ultimate Love have turned in respectably quick exercises on dirt. Black Rose in particular showed speed when clocking a bullet five furlongs in 1:00.00.

Taking all of these data points together, we recommend bettors use Black Rose, Zoomaha, and Ultimate Love to kick off the Pick 6.

Del Mar: Race 8: $20,997 Super High 5 carryover (8:30 p.m. ET)

The final race at Del Mar, a maiden special weight for fillies and mares who have started for a claiming price of $12,500 or less, features a $20,997 carryover in the 50-cent Super High 5.

We’ve already identified #3 Dixie’s Delight (4-1) and #11 Perfect Life (6-1) as our top two choices, for reasons outlined earlier. We suggest building tickets around them, counting on one to win and the other to finish in the top three.

Others worth using underneath include #4 Lady Lollipop (3-1), #5 Made to Move (12-1), #6 Mia Mac (15-1), #7 Firecracker Molly (20-1), and #12 Cote Blanc (12-1). We particularly like Firecracker Molly, who finished fifth in a six-furlong $12,500 maiden claimer two starts back. She’s adding Lasix after faltering against male rivals in a recent route race and is eligible to bounce back with a top-five finish.

Good luck!