Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Double at Fair Grounds

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Feb. 5 at Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds, along with horses to play in carryovers at Turfway Park and Oaklawn Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 15% Odds Boost at Oaklawn Park: Receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 for the day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Oaklawn Park each racing Thursday in February.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $500 Aqueduct Feeder to 2/7 Oaklawn Horseplayers Championship
• $50 Turfway Park Challenge
• $160 Turfway Park Feeder to 2/14 Risen Star KDBC Qualifier
• $200 Fair Grounds Feeder to 2/7 Sam F. Davis KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $50 Oaklawn Challenge
• $200 Oaklawn Feeder to 2/6 Oaklawn Southwest Showdown

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 4:05 p.m. ET)

#8 My Boy Star (3-1) debuted with a third-place finish in a six-furlong maiden special weight on dirt at Churchill Downs. He was always involved in the pace, led with a furlong remaining, and tired late to finish 1 3/4 lengths behind the winner.

As a son of talented turf sprinter Bucchero, My Boy Star may improve while switching to grass and cutting back to five furlongs. Let’s bet him to win and hope his 3-1 morning-line odds hold up.

Selections

• #8 My Boy Star (3-1)
• #5 Unwritten Rule (7-2)
• #2 Neo Zapper (4-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #8 My Boy Star

Fair Grounds: Race 7: $50,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#5 Evanescence (3-1) showed promise against stakes competition last year, finishing third in the Eight Belles (G3) and Leslie’s Lady S. sprinting seven furlongs at Churchill Downs. Along the way, she knocked heads with several talented rivals.

Dropping in class at Fair Grounds should help Evanescence visit the winner’s circle for trainer Eddie Kenneally (a 19% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more) and red-hot jockey Jose Ortiz.

Let’s bet Evanescence to win and single her to start a double wager.

Selections

• #5 Evanescence (3-1)
• #2 Modo (5-2)
• #4 Trouble in Love (3-1)

Wagers

• $24 to win on #5 Evanescence
• $6 Double: 5 with 2
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 5:15 p.m. ET)

#2 Follow Up (3-1) is a first-time starter from the hot barn of Cherie DeVaux. Since 2024, DeVaux has compiled a respectable 3-for-15 (20%) record debuting horses in turf routes at Fair Grounds.

Follow Up has put together a sharp work tab highlighted by a bullet half-mile from the Fair Grounds starting gate in :46 4/5. As a full-sibling to Wonder Again (G2) winner Prerequisite and a half-sibling to Cecil B. DeMille (G3) conqueror Stay Hot, Follow Up has the pedigree to shine running long on turf, and the presence of Fair Grounds’ leading jockey Jose Ortiz adds to the appeal.

Let’s place a win bet on Follow Up and bet him over stablemate #5 Untethered (6-1) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #2 Follow Up (3-1)
• #5 Untethered (6-1)
• #3 Robert Lee (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Follow Up
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 5
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 10: $6,738 Super High 5 carryover (6:25 p.m. ET)

If Turfway is able to race on Thursday—which isn’t guaranteed given continued cold temperatures in Kentucky—the track will have a $6,738 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs in the final race of the afternoon.

Race 10 is a $30,000 maiden claimer for three-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. Morning-line favorite #6 Don’t Even (3-1) is an early scratch, making the race highly competitive.

#3 Real N Spectacular (12-1) is a longshot you won’t want to leave off your tickets. The daughter of McKinzie has only run once, in a 5 1/2-furlong $20,000 maiden claimer on dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis. A troubled start left her nearly a dozen lengths off the early pace, but down the homestretch, she gobbled up ground to finish second by 1 1/4 lengths.

The Turfway Tapeta is generally kind to late runners, so switching surfaces for her second start may unlock major improvement from Real N Spectacular. Consider playing her on top of your tickets.

Oaklawn Park: Race 5: $12,081 Pick 6 carryover (3:27 p.m. ET)

Racing returns to Oaklawn Park on Thursday with a $12,081 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Classix Pick 6.

If you’re looking for a single to build tickets around, we recommend backing #1 Pony Express (8-5) in Race 8, the Fifth Season S. for older horses racing one mile on dirt.

Pony Express is shipping in from California after running well in both of his 2025 starts. First, he wired a one-mile $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Santa Anita by six lengths, earning a powerful 103 Brisnet Speed rating. Then he set a fast pace in Santa Anita’s one-mile Tokyo City Cup S. before faltering late to finish second, beaten only three-quarters of a length by the Grade 1-placed Privman while pulling 6 3/4 lengths clear of Grade 1 winner Gaming.

Pony Express is the fastest Fifth Season entrant from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, and he enters off quick workouts at Santa Anita. He shouldn’t have any trouble securing the lead and saving ground from post 1, and from there, he should prove difficult to run down.

Good luck!