Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Dragoon Guard returns

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, May 22, at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Churchill Downs, along with tickets for the $15,300 Super High 5 carryover at Gulfstream Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 5x Points on Harness Racing: Receive 5x points on all wagers at harness tracks (excluding show bets) each Wednesday and Thursday from May 7 through May 29.
• Churchill Downs Selected Races $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win bet if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Churchill Downs on Thursday.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $30 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $200 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 5/26 Churchill Downs BCBC Qualifier
• $200 Churchill Downs Feeder to 5/24 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier
• $50 Churchill Downs Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 2:10 p.m. ET)

#3 J’s Uno (5-1) is an unraced two-year-old from the barn of Joseph Davis, who has compiled a solid 5-1-2-0 record debuting juveniles at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet. That’s a 20% win rate and a 60% in-the-money rate.

J’s Uno has put together a sharp work tab at Horseshoe Indianapolis, highlighted by a quick half-mile from the starting gate in :48 4/5. Let’s try a win bet on this intriguing 5-1 shot.

Selections

• #3 J’s Uno (5-1)
• #2 Jr Sunchaser (12-1)
• #1 Brazilian Conexao (10-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 J’s Uno

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on dirt, 5:00 p.m. ET)

#6 Dragoon Guard (2-1) was one of the better three-year-olds in the country last year. He won four straight starts, including the Indiana Derby (G3) and West Virginia Derby (G3), before finishing third to Grade 1 winners Seize the Grey and Stronghold in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1).

Dragoon Guard has been freshened since September by trainer Brad Cox, a 27% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. A lengthy series of fast workouts (including a bullet five furlongs in :59 2/5 at Churchill Downs) should have Dragoon Guard fit for a winning return.

Let’s single Dragoon Guard to start a double bet.

Selections

• #6 Dragoon Guard (2-1)
• #5 Tumbarumba (3-1)
• #2 Will Take It (6-1)

Wagers

• $15 Double: 6 with 5,6 ($30)

Churchill Downs: Race 2: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on dirt, 5:29 p.m. ET)

#5 Army Hero (9-5) and #6 Tough Customer (5-2) are dropping in class out of tougher races. Army Hero exits a troubled sixth in a $50,000 maiden claimer at Keeneland, while Tough Customer was last seen running second in a $30,000 maiden claimer at Oaklawn Park.

Army Hero and Tough Customer appear to rank a bit above their Thursday rivals at Churchill Downs, so let’s box them in an exacta and use them both to conclude our double bet.

Selections

• #5 Army Hero (9-5)
• #6 Tough Customer (5-2)
• #2 Halfway Tempted (3-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: box 5,6 ($20)

Carryover Watch

Gulfstream Park: Race 9: $15,300 Super High 5 carryover (5:07 p.m. ET)

Eight horses have entered the Thursday finale at Gulfstream Park, an $8,000 claimer for fillies and mares sprinting five furlongs on Tapeta. If you can select the top five finishers in order, you can win a share of the $15,300 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5.

The best place to begin is with morning-line favorite #1 Peggysue I Love U (5-2), who has cracked the trifecta in four straight $8,000 claimers over the Gulfstream Tapeta this year. Her consistency, proven ability over this track and class level, and sharp Brisnet Speed ratings suggest she’s likely to record another top-three finish on Thursday.

Candidates to upset Peggysue I Love You include #2 Starship Voyager (7-2) and #6 Sugar Treat (3-1). Starship Voyager is still relatively untested over synthetic tracks; after spending her first seven starts competing on dirt, she switched to Tapeta for a 5 1/2-furlong $8,000 claimer at Gulfstream last month and led all the way to win by 3 1/2 lengths. It’s possible Tapeta is her true calling, in which case she has upside to run as well or better in her second try over this track.

As for Sugar Treat, she’s been competing on dirt as a late, finishing third in her last two starts against $8,000 claiming company. But last year, she showed fine form over the Gulfstream Tapeta, finishing first and third in $16,000 claimers while earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings. Trainer Saffie Joseph wins at a 22% rate with horses switching from dirt to synthetic, so Sugar Treat is eligible to vie for victory while returning to Tapeta.

#3 Spirit of Victory (6-1) has finished behind Peggysue I Love U twice in the last two months, but she came home only a neck behind Peggysue I Love U in an $8,000 claimer on April 27 and can certainly factor for a top-five finish.

#7 Xenon (8-1) likewise warrants respect. The three-year-old filly has hit the board in three straight $17,500 claimers against her own age group over the Gulfstream Tapeta, and Brisnet Speed ratings suggest she’s fast enough to factor against older horses.

We’ll round out our tickets with #8 Spicy Guacamole (5-1), who finished second to Starship Voyager in the latter’s Tapeta debut before bouncing back to win an $8,000 claimer on May 3.

Here are the Super High 5 tickets we suggest playing:

• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 2,6 with 2,6 with 3,7,8 with 3,7,8 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 2,6 with 3 with 2,6 with 7,8 ($4)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 2,6 with 3 with 7,8 with 2,6 ($4)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 3 with 2,6 with 2,6 with 7,8 ($4)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 3 with 2,6 with 7,8 with 2,6 ($4)
• $1 Super High 5: 2,6 with 1 with 2,6 with 3,7,8 with 3,7,8 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 2,6 with 1 with 3 with 2,6 with 7,8 ($4)
• $1 Super High 5: 2,6 with 1 with 3 with 7,8 with 2,6 ($4)
• $1 Super High 5: 2,6 with 2,6 with 1 with 3,7,8 with 3,7,8 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 2,6 with 3 with 1 with 2,6 with 7,8 ($4)
• $1 Super High 5: 2,6 with 3 with 1 with 7,8 with 2,6 ($4)
  Total: $68

Good luck!