Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Heart of Stone at 12-1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, July 17 at Saratoga, Delaware Park, and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with horses to play in the $6,187 Pick 6 carryover at Colonial Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 10x Points on Harness Racing: Receive 10x points on all wagers at harness tracks (excluding show bets) each Thursday in July.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
• 20x Tournament Points Boost: Receive 20x points on all tournament wagers from July 1 through July 31.
• Colonial Downs $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Play the Late Pick 5 at Colonial Downs each Thursday in July for a chance to split a $2,500 prize pool each promotional day.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Colonial Downs Feeder to 7/28 Ellis Park MMBC Qualifier
• $50 Colonial Downs Challenge
• $160 Charles Town Feeder to 7/20 Woodbine BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Saratoga: Race 3: Rick Violette S. (1 1/16 miles on turf, 2:21 p.m. ET)

#6 Smooth Breeze (7-5) has run well against non-state-restricted competition, but he’s 2-for-2 competing against New York-breds on turf. He won his debut in a maiden special weight at Saratoga last summer, and during the spring he trounced an Aqueduct allowance by four lengths.

Smooth Breeze looks like a good fit for the Rick Violette field, so we’ll play him over #4 Outsource (4-1) in an exacta. The latter launched a big homestretch rally to win a Saratoga allowance last month.

Selections

• #6 Smooth Breeze (7-5)
• #4 Outsource (4-1)
• #5 Leon Blue (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 6 with 4

Delaware Park: Race 6: Dashing Beauty S. (six furlongs on dirt, 3:10 p.m. ET)

#5 Mystic Lake (3-5) has won five of her last six starts outside of the Grade 1 ranks, including the Inside Information (G2), Charles Town Oaks (G2), and Miss Preakness (G3). She’s also performed respectably in a couple of top-tier contests, finishing fourth in the Madison (G1) and Cotillion (G1).

The Dashing Beauty should be ripe for conquest by Mystic Lake, who has red-hot jockey Jorge Ruiz (a 35% winner at Delaware Park this meet) named to ride. #1 St. Benedicts Prep (2-1) can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Mystic Lake (3-5)
• #1 St. Benedicts Prep (2-1)
• #3 Admiral Hopper (12-1)

Wagers

• $30 Exacta: 5 with 1

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 4:14 p.m. ET)

There are several reasons to believe #4 Heart of Stone (12-1) can outrun expectations on debut. For one, she’s a daughter of talented sprinter Shancelot, who sires 21% winners from first-time starters. Second, she enters off fast workouts at Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a bullet half-mile in :47.

Third, Heart of Stone is trained by Michelle Elliott, who has gone 8-for-40 (20%) saddling first-time starters in dirt sprints at Horseshoe Indianapolis since 2021. Throw in the fact apprentice jockey Joseph Romero (who rides with a seven-pound weight allowance) has the mount, and Heart of Stone is worthy of a win bet. 

Selections

• #4 Heart of Stone (12-1)
• #5 Cyawouldntwanabeya (8-5)
• #3 Electrifying Lady (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Heart of Stone

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 7: $6,187 Pick 6 carryover (1:57 p.m. ET)

There are several good reasons to play the “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 at Colonial Downs on Thursday.

For starters, the base bet amount is only 50 cents, lower than the $1 and $2 minimums found at many other tracks. For another, the takeout rate is a modest 15%. Lastly, Thursday’s sequence features an enticing $6,187 carryover.

Anyone who assembles a winning ticket is likely to catch a nice payoff. Before scratches, Thursday’s Old Dominion 6 contains 67 horses (averaging about 11.2 per race) and 1,585,584 possible outcomes. Every race contains at least eight entries, and finding a reliable single to build tickets around is difficult.

That said, we’ll give it a try. #4 La Cantera (5-2) is a logical favorite in Race 8, a $30,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races. The 1 1/16 mile turf test has drawn nine entries (one of the smaller fields in the sequence), and La Cantera’s credentials are compelling.

La Cantera has displayed consistent form in five turf starts at Gulfstream Park since being claimed by trainer Saffie Joseph. First, she won a $50,000 maiden claimer by 2 1/2 lengths. Then she mixed third-place finishes in a couple of $35,000 starter optional claimers among seventh-place tries in the Sanibel Island S. and Martha Washington S.

These performances suggest La Cantera will be an excellent fit for a $30,000 claimer. Brisnet Speed ratings agree. La Cantera’s five turf starts have yielded ratings of 84, 78, 79, 82, and 75, which compare favorably against the par winning number (76) for Thursday’s conditions at Colonial Downs. Those numbers also stamp La Cantera as the fastest horse entered in Race 8; none of her rivals have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 82.

Throw in the fact Joseph wins at a lofty 28% rate in claiming races, and we rank La Cantera as the most reliable single candidate among the many horses entered in Thursday’s Pick 6 sequence.

Good luck!