Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Keeneland’s $26,855 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Oct. 9 at Thistledown, Keeneland, and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a horse to single in Keeneland’s $26,648 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Bet $3,000 Get 5% Back on BCBC Seat: Place at least $3,000 in eligible wagers on races from Oct. 1 through Oct. 26 to receive 5% back on your Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge seat purchase through TwinSpires.
• $3,000 Keeneland WIN Ladder: Place a $5+ single-horse win wager on selected races at Keeneland each Thursday and Friday in October to move up the Win Ladder and compete for your share of a $3,000 prize pool.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Keeneland Challenge
• $200 Keeneland Feeder to 10/12 Keeneland BCBC/CBC Qualifier
• $200 Charles Town Feeder to 10/18 Keeneland KDBC/BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Thistledown: Race 1: Emerald Necklace S. (six furlongs on dirt, 12:50 p.m. ET)

#3 Dunn’s River (9-5) has posted Brisnet Speed ratings in the 65-69 range in all four of her starts. Those numbers stamp the dark bay filly as the runner to beat in the Emerald Necklace.

Dunn’s River has already defeated many of the rivals she’ll face on Thursday, and she exits a sharp runner-up finish against males in the Loyalty S. at Belterra Park.

Let’s load up with a large win bet on Dunn’s River.

Selections

• #3 Dunn’s River (9-5)
• #6 Kerkyra (10-1)
• #8 Dynamic Vision (5-1)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #3 Dunn’s River

Keeneland: Race 6: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 3:40 p.m. ET)

#6 Can’t Deny It (4-1) has shown promise in two starts on turf. Last December, he won his debut in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Fair Grounds by 2 1/2 lengths over a next-out winner. Then in March, he wired a $100,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting about 5 1/2 furlongs at Fair Grounds by 6 1/4 lengths over next-out William Walker S. winner Bridle a Butterfly.

Can’t Deny It has posted a bevy of sharp workouts in preparation for his return, including a bullet half-mile from the Hawthorne starting gate in :46. Trainer Larry Rivelli wins at a 25% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so let’s place a win bet on Can’t Deny It and add an exacta with #1 Litigation (3-1) for good measure.

Selections

• #6 Can’t Deny It (4-1)
• #1 Litigation (3-1)
• #8 Operation Sunrise (2-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Can’t Deny It
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 1
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 4:48 p.m. ET)

#7 Mystic Realm (15-1) debuted in a deep maiden special weight sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the Ellis Park turf course. After sticking close to the early pace in a large field, she weakened to finish sixth by 5 1/4 lengths.

The top three finishers all returned to record next-out wins, so it’s safe to say Mystic Realm met a fierce field. The daughter of Mendelssohn is bred to stretch out over one mile and has every chance to graduate in her second start.

At 15-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #7 Mystic Realm (15-1)
• #5 Actis (7-2)
• #2 Betsy (10-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Mystic Realm

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 5: $26,648 Pick 6 carryover (2:10 p.m. ET)

After going unsolved on Wednesday, the $1 Pick 6 at Keeneland features a $26,648 carryover for Thursday’s card.

To win a share, you’ll have to decipher a bevy of competitive fields. The six-race sequence contains 72 horses (averaging 12 per race) and 2,419,200 possible outcomes before scratches. Nine of the horses are also-eligible entrants, so the sequence should simplify a bit once scratches are released, but still, this isn’t a Pick 6 for the faint of heart.

If you’re looking for a single to build tickets around, our best recommendation is #1 Kayla’s Komet (8-5) in Race 7, a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies running 1 1/16 miles on dirt. The race has drawn “only” nine entrants, and many bring uninspiring form to the table.

Kayla’s Komet is an exception. The daughter of Mitole debuted in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park and ran strongly. Facing 11 rivals, she tracked the pace in third place and took over the lead in midstretch before tiring to finish second by 2 1/2 lengths.

That effort earned a sharp 82 Brisnet Speed rating five points higher than the par winning number for Thursday’s conditions at Keeneland. It’s also the highest number belonging to any horse entered in Race 7.

The form of Kayla’s Komet’s debut was flattered when third-place finisher Sister Troienne returned to dominate her next start in a one-mile turf maiden special weight by 4 1/2 lengths.

Kayla’s Komet is trained by Bret Calhoun, who wins at a sharp 20% rate with horses running long for the first time. A pair of bullet workouts at Ellis Park and Keeneland in recent weeks cement Kayla’s Komet as the filly to beat in her second start, so we feel confident highlighting her as a Pick 6 single.

Good luck!