Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Keeneland’s $5,793 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Oct. 22 at Belmont Park, Keeneland, and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a horse to key on top in Keeneland’s $5,793 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It at Keeneland: Opt in and hit the Late Pick 5 at Keeneland for a chance to split a $2,500 prize pool each racing Thursday in October, from Oct. 8 through Oct. 22.
• 8x Rewards Points at Red Shores: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Red Shores Charlottetown and Red Shores Summerside each racing day from Sept. 19 through Oct. 31.
• 4% Cash Back on Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge: Opt in and receive 4% cash back on your Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) entry purchased through TwinSpires when you have previously competed in any BCBC qualifier, hosted by TwinSpires or any other operator.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $116 Keeneland Bet and Set Feeder to 10/23 Keeneland BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $50 Belmont Park Challenge
• $100 Belmont Park Feeder to 11/7 Churchill Downs CBC Qualifier
• $200 Keeneland Feeder to 10/24 Keeneland BCBC Bonus Qualifier
• $150 Keeneland Challenge
• $40 Keeneland Challenge
• $80 Charles Town Feeder to 10/24 Keeneland BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Belmont Park: Race 1: Allowance (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 1:10 p.m. ET)

#5 Fedupwiththefed (8-5) has finished second twice in one-mile allowances at Saratoga and Belmont Park this year, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 83 and 84. The chestnut filly appears well-spotted to snag a victory on Thursday under two-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat.

#2 Katie King (2-1), winner of a $40,000 starter allowance at Aqueduct during the spring, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Fedupwiththefed (8-5)
• #2 Katie King (2-1)
• #4 Full Pour (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 5 with 2

Keeneland: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 2:36 p.m. ET)

#9 Gut Reaction (1-1) debuted with a runner-up finish in a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. He pulled 4 3/4 lengths clear of third-place finisher and next-out winner When I Go, and he earned a 76 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Thursday’s field at Keeneland by a clear margin.

Gut Reaction is the lone speed horse entered in Race 4, so he should work out a perfect trip and secure a short-priced victory.

#4 Cicero Ave (7-2), third on debut in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, can round out the exacta while stretching out in distance for his second start.

Selections

• #9 Gut Reaction (1-1)
• #4 Cicero Ave (7-2)
• #8 Coltrane (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 9 with 4

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 4:19 p.m. ET)

#4 My Blue Heaven (20-1) faltered in a couple of starts at Horseshoe Indianapolis during the summer, but she’s improved her Brisnet Speed ratings in recent maiden special weights at Kentucky Downs and Churchill Downs, finishing fifth and fourth with ratings of 75 and 71.

None of the other runners entered in Race 5 have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 71, so if My Blue Heaven repeats her peak number while returning to Horseshoe Indianapolis, she can vie for victory at a big price.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #4 My Blue Heaven (20-1)
• #10 Tatiana (6-1)
• #6 Real Lady (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 My Blue Heaven

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 9: $5,793 Super High 5 carryover (5:16 p.m. ET)

One of the betting highlights on Thursday’s card at Keeneland is a $5,793 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 9, a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies racing 1 1/16 miles on dirt. The race is restricted to horses who brought a final bid of $65,000 or less at their most recent auction, and 10-horse field looks competitive at first glance.

But dig a little deeper, and #2 Spur of the Moment (5-2) emerges as a potential standout favorite.

Spur of the Moment opened her career with a couple of efforts on turf at Colonial Downs, finishing fifth in a six-furlong maiden special weight and fourth (beaten only 1 1/2 lengths) in a $50,000 maiden optional claimer. Those efforts yielded decent Brisnet Speed ratings of 72 and 70.

However, Spur of the Moment improved meaningfully when switching to dirt for a six-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland. The race was restricted to fillies who brought a final bid of $65,000 or less at their most recent auction, and Spur of the Moment finished second among a dozen runners, beaten only one length while improving her Brisnet Speed rating to 78.

None of the other fillies entered in Race 9 have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 72 on dirt, so Spur of the Moment boasts the best dirt form in the field. She also appears poised to work out a perfect trip. Spur of the Moment has set the pace or vied for the lead in all three of her starts, and she’s the only proven speed horse in Thursday’s field, so the stage is set for Spur of the Moment to secure an uncontested lead and cruise to the winner’s circle.

We recommend keying Spur of the Moment on top of your Super High 5 tickets while emphasizing runners like #7 Kihei Kiana (12-1) and #4 She’s Good Trouble (4-1) underneath. And for good measure, why not place a win bet on Spur of the Moment? Her 5-2 morning-line odds are enticing, and the win bet may help you snag a profit if Spur of the Moment prevails, but you fail to solve the Super High 5.

Good luck!