Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Lendalfoot intrigues at 12-1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Sept. 11 at Aqueduct, Colonial Downs, and Churchill Downs, including two singles for Colonial’s $1,846 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Churchill Downs WIN Ladder: Place $10+ win wagers at Churchill Downs to split a $3,000 prize pool on Thursdays in September.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Colonial Downs Challenge
• $200 Colonial Downs Feeder to 9/20 Pennsylvania Derby/Churchill Downs BCBC Qualifier
• $50 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $200 Churchill Downs Feeder to 9/13 Woodbine Mile/Churchill Downs KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Aqueduct: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 1:10 p.m. ET)

#6 Memorized (5-2) didn’t show much when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga, finishing fourth by a wide margin. But the quality of competition was deep (the runner-up returned to win her next start), and there are reasons to believe Memorized can improve on Thursday.

For one, Memorized is trained by Chad Brown, a 31% winner with horses running long for the first time, a 26% winner with second-time starters, and a 25% winner with horses trying grass for the first time.

For another, Memorized was produced by the Creative Cause mare Memories Prevail, who has already foaled a pair of turf winners.

Under Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat (a 26% winner on grass this year), Memorized is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #6 Memorized (5-2)
• #2 Sweet Little Lila (9-2)
• #1 Always Ready (7-2)

Wagers

• $35 to win on #6 Memorized

Colonial Downs: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 2:28 p.m. ET)

Trainer Keri Brion wins at a respectable 15% rate with horses debuting on turf. At Colonial Downs specifically, Brion has gone 1-for-5 (20%) debuting horses in turf routes since 2020.

Perhaps Brion’s unraced filly #10 Lendalfoot (12-1) is worth out attention. Her pedigree offers potential for success on grass, and a lengthy series of workouts (including a bullet five furlongs in 1:01) should have her fit for a competitive debut.

At 12-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #10 Lendalfoot (12-1)
• #6 Dare Greatly (5-2)
• #11 Squirrely (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #10 Lendalfoot

Churchill Downs: Race 4: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 6:30 p.m. ET)

#10 Tennessee Belle (6-5) brings strong forms lines into this allowance for two-year-old fillies. In her debut at Saratoga, she ran second against next-out Spinaway (G1) winner Tommy Belle. Then in her second start, she wired a six-furlong maiden special weight by 7 1/4 lengths with a flashy 91 Brisnet Speed rating.

Let’s bet Tennessee Belle over #7 On Time Girl (3-1) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #10 Tennessee Belle (6-5)
• #7 On Time Girl (3-1)
• #9 Champagne Candice (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 10 with 7

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 7: $1,846 Pick 6 carryover (1:58 p.m. ET)

Fans of Colonial Downs will be happy to hear there’s a $1,846 carryover in Thursday’s 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6.

We’ve analyzed the entries and identified a pair of short-priced single candidates you can build tickets around:

Race 7: #8 Judith (7-5)

The opening leg of the Old Dominion 6 is a maiden special weight for fillies and mares sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. The conditions should suit morning-line favorite Judith.

Judith opened her career with a pair of starts in one-mile maiden special weights. She never factored in her first try at Keeneland, racing far back on her way to eighth place. Nine months later, she showed some early speed at Del Mar before tiring to finish eighth again.

Those races may have been too long. Cutting back in distance for her second start off the layoff worked wonders for Judith. In a five-furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar, she pressed the pace on her way to finishing second, beaten only half a length while earning an 86 Brisnet Speed rating.

That 86 is significant for a couple of reasons. One, it’s the only 80+ rating belonging to any horse entered in Race 7. For another, it’s 11 points higher than the par winning number for Thursday’s conditions.

Judith should find the competition a bit easier at Colonial Downs than Del Mar, setting the stage for a decisive victory.

Race 12: #5 Souper Roll (7-5)

Souper Roll should be tough to beat while dropping in class for the final leg of the Old Dominion 6.

Race 12 is a $16,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles on turf. Souper Roll’s last two starts over the Colonial turf have come against significantly tougher competition. In a 1 1/8-mile $40,000 maiden claimer, she carved out the pace before staying on to finish third, beaten 1 3/4 lengths by a next-out winner. Then in a one-mile maiden special weight, Souper Roll finished sixth, beaten only 2 1/2 lengths after a slow start.

Tackling the $16,000 level might be all Souper Roll needs to deliver a breakthrough win for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Paco Lopez and Michael Stidham, who have gone 5-for-9 (56%) teaming up together over the last two months.

Good luck!