Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Longshots at Churchill, Fair Grounds

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Nov. 20 at Churchill Downs and Fair Grounds, including tickets for Churchill’s $5,624 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Churchill Downs 15% Win Bonus: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 for the day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Churchill Downs each Thursday in November.
• 10x Points at Charlottetown Red Shores: Receive 10x rewards points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Charlottetown Red Shores each racing day from Nov. 15 through Nov. 29.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $200 Churchill Downs Feeder to 11/22 Churchill Downs CBC Qualifier
• $100 Fair Grounds Feeder to 11/27 Churchill Downs CBC Qualifier
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 1:29 p.m. ET)

#6 Publisher (6-5) is going to be heavily favored while dropping in class out of six straight graded stakes, including the Kentucky Derby (G1). But his 0-for-10 lifetime record is a cause for pause. Publisher has cracked the trifecta four times at the maiden special weight level without winning, so the stretch-running colt has a tendency to settle for minor awards.

Let’s try to beat Publisher with #1 Up Country (2-1), who has the tactical speed to work out a favorable trip close to the pace. He finished second over this track, distance, and class level on Sept. 25 and should be able to save ground from his inside draw.

We’ll bet Up Country over Publisher in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #1 Up Country (2-1)
• #6 Publisher (6-5)
• #5 Money Man (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 1 with 6

Churchill Downs: Race 10: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 5:24 p.m. ET)

#7 Sartorial (12-1) ran well when debuting in a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. After settling in the back half of a nine-horse field, he rallied to finish third behind next-out Street Sense (G3) winner Incredibolt.

Trainer Rusty Arnold wins at a solid 17% rate with second-time starters, so there’s a chance Sartorial will move forward on Thursday. At 12-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #7 Sartorial (12-1)
• #2 Chip Honcho (5-2)
• #9 Phila Street (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Sartorial

Fair Grounds: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 5:45 p.m. ET)

#10 Dr Hinckley (10-1) feels like a colt who could challenge for victory on debut. He’s a son of talented sprinter/mile Vekoma (who sires a lofty 23% winners from first-time starters), and he’s trained by Robertino Diodoro, who saddles 21% debut winners.

A respectable work tab dotted with five-furlong breezes should have Dr Hinckley fit for a competitive debut. Let’s bet him to win.

Selections

• #10 Dr Hinckley (10-1)
• #1 Wherethehitsare (8-1)
• #7 Joey D (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #10 Dr Hinckley

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $5,624 Super High 5 carryover (1:00 p.m. ET)

The opening race on Thursday at Churchill Downs features a $5,624 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

Race 1 is a $30,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races. Eight horses have entered the 1 1/16-mile dirt race, and we’re confident #5 Goldenageactress (5-2) will deliver a strong showing in her first start since being claimed by high-percentage trainer Linda Rice.

Wagers

• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 3 with 1,4 with 1,4,6,8 with 1,4,6,8 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 1,4 with 3 with 1,4,6,8 with 1,4,6,8 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 3 with 5 with 1,4 with 1,4,6,8 with 1,4,5,8 ($12)
  Total: $36

Goldenageactress spent her first nine starts competing in non-claiming competition on turf. Most notably, she led all the way to win a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs.

However, Goldenageactress ran well when making her dirt debut at Keeneland last month in a 1 1/16-mile $40,000 claimer for non-winners of two races. She displayed tactical speed and advanced to challenge around the far turn before weakening to finish third. The form of that race was flattered when runner-up Mizmalice returned to win a $30,000 claimer at Churchill Downs in her next start.

Perhaps Goldenageactress can do the same. The class drop is appealing since Rice wins at a powerful 39% rate with horses descending in class off a claim. Throw in the presence of five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. (a 26% winner at Churchill Downs this meet), and Goldenageactress is a compelling favorite.

The only horse we anticipate giving Goldenageactress a fight for victory is #3 Onmywaytosavthday (9-2). The David Jacobson trainee took a nice step forward when stretching out from six furlongs to 1 1/16 miles in a $20,000 claimer for non-winners of two races, finishing a close second in that 1 1/16-mile Churchill Downs contest. She earned a 76 Brisnet Speed rating equal to Goldenageactress’ lone dirt number, so stepping up to the $30,000 level shouldn’t be much of a concern.

Other horses we’ll emphasize underneath are #1 Misty Muppet (3-1) and #4 Sweet Note (7-2). Misty Muppet brings a bevy of sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and could factor in her first start since being claimed by hot trainer J. Kent Sweezey, while Sweet Note likewise boasts solid Brisnet Speed ratings and could sit a nice trip while stretching out from sprints to a route.

Good luck!