Friday's Best Bets and Quick Picks: Maidens at Churchill Downs, Del Mar

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Nov. 14 at Churchill Downs and Del Mar, including tickets for Churchill’s $6,951 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Churchill Downs 1 million Points Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Play the Late Pick 5 at Churchill Downs each Friday in November for a chance to split a 1 million rewards points daily prize pool.
• 5x Points at The Meadowlands: Receive 5x points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at The Meadowlands each Friday in November.
• Gulfstream Park 15% Across the Board Boost: Receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 for the day) on any winning individual win, place, or show wager, or combination of win, place, and show wagers, at Gulfstream Park each Friday in November.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $100 Aqueduct Feeder to 11/16 Churchill Downs KDBC Qualifier
• $70 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $200 Churchill Downs Bonus Feeder Friday to 11/15 Churchill Downs Claiming Crown NHC Qualifier
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 2:27 p.m. ET)

#8 Patron Silver (3-1) ran well in her Oct. 18 debut at Keeneland. Facing 11 rivals in a one-mile maiden special weight on turf, Patron Silver settled in fourth place behind a slow pace before rallying to finish second, beaten 1 3/4 lengths by a gate-to-wire winner.

Trainer Kenny McPeek wins at a 23% rate with second-time grass starters, so if Patron Silver gets a little better pace setup at Churchill Downs, she can deliver a win over #4 Bohemian (9-2).

Selections

• #8 Patron Silver (3-1)
• #4 Bohemian (9-2)
• #9 Lowenstein (6-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #8 Patron Silver
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 4
  Total: $35

Del Mar: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 4:02 p.m. ET)

There aren’t any obvious speed horses in this field, which should suit #7 Druliner (7-5) just fine. She’s finished second in both her starts over this distance and class level, and in her most recent race, she stayed within three lengths of a respectable early pace.

Druliner should work out a favorable trip on Friday, perhaps stalking #1 Keep the Pavels (12-1), a sprinter stretching out in distance. Let’s bet Druliner on top of a cold exacta using #3 Coyote Cafe (5-1) for second place.

Selections

• #7 Druliner (7-5)
• #3 Coyote Cafe (5-1)
• #1 Keep the Pavels (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 7 with 3

Del Mar: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 6:04 p.m. ET)

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert wins at a 31% rate with horses debuting over one mile or farther. That’s a good sign for #8 Consequent (7-2), a Juddmonte homebred daughter of perennial leading sire Into Mischief.

Consequent is a full-sister to Show Card, winner of the Tranquility Lake S. and Dark Mirage S. racing one mile on the California circuit, so she’s bred to handle this distance. A lengthy work tab featuring several quick exercises should have Consequent fit for a winning debut under jockey Juan Hernandez, a 44% winner teaming up with Baffert over the last two months.

If Consequent’s 7-2 morning-line odds hold up, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #8 Consequent (7-2)
• #3 Bank Shot (8-1)
• #1 Conquistadora (4-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #8 Consequent

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $6,951 Super High 5 carryover (1:00 p.m. ET)

If you can select the top five finishers, in order, in Friday’s opening race at Churchill Downs, you can win a share of $6,951 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

Hitting the Super High 5 will be easier said than done. Race 1 is a $100,000 maiden claimer for two-year-olds dashing 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track. Six of the nine entrants are first-time starters, so there isn’t much established form to analyze.

Wagers

• $1 Super High 5: 5,8 with 5,8 with 6 with 1,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,7 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 5,8 with 6 with 5,8 with 1,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,7 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 5,8 with 5,8 with 1,3,4 with 6 with 1,2,3,4,7 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 5,8 with 6 with 1,3,4 with 5,8 with 1,2,3,4,7 ($24)
  Total: $96

Among the first-time starters, #6 Silver Talisman (7-2) is the most intriguing since he’s trained by Brendan Walsh, who wins at a 21% rate with horses debuting at the maiden claiming level. He’s been working more or less steadily since the beginning of September and is slated to be ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, one of the leading riders at Churchill Downs this meet.

But a couple of experienced runners may have even stronger win chances.

#5 Southeastern (3-1) is the morning-line favorite. He debuted back in June in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, racing off the pace on his way to last place. He disappeared from the work tab immediately thereafter and didn’t post another timed workout until September. Since then, Southeastern has breezed nine times for hot trainer Brad Cox, who wins at a 28% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company. The presence of Churchill’s leading jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. adds to the appeal.

At a much bigger price, #8 Six String Prince (12-1) must also be respected. While he failed to factor in his debut at Churchill Downs, finishing seventh in a seven-furlong maiden special weight, that was a deep race won in fast fashion by Englishman. The distant runner-up, White Tiger, flattered the form by returning to win his next start. Six String Prince should find the competition much easier at the maiden claiming level, opening the door for a competitive (and potentially winning) performance.

We’ll build our tickets around Southeastern, Six String Prince, and Silver Talisman, counting on one of the first two to win while emphasizing Silver Talisman underneath.

Good luck!