Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: New Year’s Day plays

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Jan. 1, at Gulfstream Park and Turfway Park, along with a horse to single in the $20,776 Pick 6 carryover at Oaklawn Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 2 for $2,000 Exacta Hit It and Split It at Turfway Park: Hit two exactas at Turfway Park for a chance to split a $2,000 prize pool each Thursday in January.
• 4X Rewards Points at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita: Receive 4X rewards points on all wagers at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita on Thursday, Jan. 1.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Fair Grounds Feeder to 1/10 Fair Grounds/Tampa Bay Downs KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $50 Oaklawn Challenge
• $200 Oaklawn Feeder to 1/3 Jerome/Smarty Jones KDBC Qualifier
• $50 Turfway Park Challenge
• $120 Turfway Park Feeder to 1/17 Lecomte KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 8: Cash Run S. (one mile on dirt, 3:48 p.m. ET)

#6 Jetty’s Home (6-1) has competed well in New York and Kentucky. Last time out, she trounced a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs by 2 3/4 lengths over a field including next-out winner Fizzy Lass. Two starts back, she finished seventh after racing midfield against a hot pace in the Frizette (G1).

Jetty’s Home looks like a great fit for the Cash Run, and she has the hot jockey/trainer duo of Tyler Gaffalione and Saffie Joseph Jr. in her corner. They’ve teamed up to win at a 24% rate together over the last two months.

Let’s try a win bet on Jetty’s Home.

Selections

• #6 Jetty’s Home (6-1)
• #1 Vita Mia (6-1)
• #7 Secane (8-5)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Jetty’s Home

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#1 Kentucky Mule (15-1) is an intriguing longshot. She debuted in a five-furlong maiden special weight over the Churchill Downs turf course and was beaten only 3 1/2 lengths while finishing ninth. She gained 3 1/4 lengths through the final furlong.

Trainer Rodolphe Brisset wins at a 28% rate with second-time starters, and at a 22% rate with horses racing on Lasix for the first time, two angles that apply to Kentucky Mule. Let’s place a win bet on the chestnut filly.

Selections

• #1 Kentucky Mule (15-1)
• #11 Miss Milky Way (5-2)
• #8 Cynical Humor (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Kentucky Mule

Turfway Park: Race 8: Gowell S. (six furlongs on Tapeta, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#4 Pure Eloquence (8-1) showed promise in her June 19 debut at Gulfstream Park. Sprinting five furlongs on turf, she set fast fractions of :21.42 and :44.21 on her way to victory by five lengths over next-out winner Chucky’s Ride.

Pure Eloquence reached the finish line in :55.92 and earned an 89 Brisnet Speed rating, one of the highest numbers in the Gowell field. She hasn’t run since, but trainer Jack Sisterson wins at a respectable 15% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and a recent five-furlong workout from the Turfway Park starting gate in a bullet 1:00 suggests Pure Eloquence is ready for a competitive return.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #4 Pure Eloquence (8-1)
• #8 Map of the Moon (2-1)
• #3 Woodstock (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Pure Eloquence

Carryover Watch

Oaklawn Park: Race 5: $20,776 Pick 6 carryover (3:24 p.m. ET)

Oaklawn Park is kicking off 2026 on a high note. The Arkansas racetrack’s $1 Classix Pick 6 has tossed up an enticing $20,776 carryover for New Year’s Day.

Five of the six races in the sequence have drawn between 10 and 14 entries, making it a difficult Pick 6 to solve. One race, however, has drawn only six entries. That’s the feature event, Race 8, the $135,000 Oaklawn Sports S. for four-year-old fillies who have never won a stakes (other than those for state-breds).

Slated to take place over 1 1/16 miles on dirt, the Oaklawn Sports features a capable field with a few proven stakes competitors, but morning-line favorite #6 Lemon Zest (7-5) looms as a logical single for budget-conscious bettors.

Best single: Race 8: #6 Lemon Zest (7-5)

A Godolphin homebred conditioned by two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox, Lemon Zest has run well in all four of her dirt route races. First, she won a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. Then she trounced a one-mile allowance at Ellis Park. After that, she ran second in the 1 1/16-mile Remington Park Oaks and third in the 1 1/8-mile Mother Goose (G2).

Lemon Zest faced a deep field in the Mother Goose. The winner, Fully Subscribed, added the Comely (G3) to her record one month later. The runner-up, Drexel Hill, previously finished second in the Kentucky Oaks (G1).

The Oaklawn Sports looks like an easier spot, setting the stage for Lemon Zest to return to the winner’s circle. It helps that she appears poised to work out a perfect trip under reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat, who has gone 7-for-15 (47%) teaming up with Cox over the last two months. Lemon Zest has early speed, but there’s only one other definite speed horse entered in the Oaklawn Sports: longshot #3 Kerry’s Kiss (10-1).

From her outside post, Lemon Zest can track Kerry’s Kiss in second place before taking over to win.

Good luck!