Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Oaklawn’s $52,483 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, April 2, at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita, along with horses to play in carryovers at Oaklawn Park and in the Sunset Six.

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• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Aqueduct Challenge
• $200 Aqueduct Feeder to 4/12 Keeneland KDBC Qualifier
• $50 Oaklawn Challenge
• $250 Oaklawn Feeder to 4/4 Blue Grass KDBC Qualifier
• $40 Charles Town Challenge
• $200 Charles Town Feeder to 4/18 Keeneland KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 8: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 4:17 p.m. ET)

#3 Bronze Bullet (7-5) is a picture of consistency. He hasn’t missed the trifecta in five starts, nor the exacta in three starts on Tapeta. That includes a runner-up finish in the Pulpit S., in which he crossed the wire in a dead-heat for victory, only to be disqualified to second place for interference.

Bronze Bullet has run well sprinting over the Gulfstream Tapeta and shouldn’t mind cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs for this allowance dash. Let’s key him on top of an exacta using #4 Trelawny (6-1) and #7 Losmastix (4-1) for second place.

Selections

• #3 Bronze Bullet (7-5)
• #4 Trelawny (6-1)
• #7 Losmastix (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 3 with 4,7 ($30)

Santa Anita: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 5:05 p.m. ET)

#4 Zihnal (9-2) is an intriguing first-time starter conditioned by hot trainer Jonathan Thomas, who wins at a respectable 17% rate with horses debuting over one mile or farther.

Zihnal’s sire, Quality Road, won four Grade 1s over distances from one mile to 1 1/8 miles. Zignal’s dam, Theodora B., won the 1 1/4-mile Dance Smartly (G2). Zihnal has the pedigree to shine running long, and fast workouts (including a bullet five furlongs from the Santa Anita starting gate in :59 1/5) should have him fit for a strong debut.

Let’s place a win bet on Zihnal and key him over #1 Plagarist (7-2) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #4 Zihnal (9-2)
• #1 Plagarist (7-2)
• #2 Memory (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Zihnal
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 1
  Total: $25

Santa Anita: Race 4: $40,000 Claiming (one mile on turf, 5:37 p.m. ET)

#2 Flying Drummer (7-5) is the heavy favorite, but he hasn’t run in 25 months, and he’s yet to race on turf. Switching surfaces off the long layoff isn’t necessarily a recipe for victory.

Let’s oppose Flying Drummer with #6 None Above the Law (9-2). He’s dropping in class after finishing second in a one-mile $50,000 allowance optional claimer over the Santa Anita lawn last month. Back in 2021, None Above the Law won the Del Mar Derby (G2), so he’s always had talent. He can recapture his winning ways while dropping into the claiming ranks on Thursday.

Let’s bet None Above the Law to win and play him over #1 Packs a Wahlop (3-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 None Above the Law (9-2)
• #1 Packs a Wahlop (3-1)
• #3 Tariff (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 None Above the Law
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 1
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Oaklawn Park: Race 4: $52,483 Pick 6 carryover (3:21 p.m. ET)

The $1 Classix Pick 6 at Oaklawn Park has tossed up a $52,483 carryover for Thursday’s card.

Two middle legs of the sequence appear fairly straightforward to handicap. The first is Race 6, a six-furlong maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies. #1 Lake Louise (2-1) is a logical favorite after debuting with a runner-up finish over this track, distance, and class level on March 14. She closed ground to finish only 1 1/2 lengths behind the winner and is eligible to move forward in her second start for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, who strikes at a solid 18% rate with second-time starters.

But don’t overlook #8 Lil Tipsy (5-1) at a bit of a price. She started twice in Kentucky last year, most notably running second in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight. She went to the sidelines following her second start, but has posted sharp workouts in advance of her return for trainer Matt Shirer, a 19% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. If Lil Tipsy has improved at all as a three-year-old, she can vie for victory on Thursday.

The other seemingly straightforward race to handicap is Race 7, a $22,000 claimer for three-year-olds and older horses who have never won three races. #5 Ben Franklin (8-5) is a compelling choice to win the six-furlong dash after finishing second in a recent $30,000 claimer for non-winners of three races.

But #3 Colonel Caliente (7-2) has win potential too. He recently trounced a $16,000 claimer for non-winners of two races by 2 3/4 lengths, earning an 87 Brisnet Speed rating that stacks up well against Ben Franklin’s recent numbers. Colonel Caliente was claimed out of that race by trainer Ray Ashford Jr., who wins at a lofty 30% rate with new claiming acquisitions, so don’t leave Colonel Caliente off your tickets.

Sunset Six: $30,598 Pick 6 carryover (3:47 p.m. ET)

The Sunset Six, a special Pick 6 wager featuring three races at Gulfstream and three at Santa Anita, boasts a $30,598 carryover for Thursday.

The second leg of the Sunset Six is the above-mentioned Race 8 at Gulfstream Park, in which we rank #3 Bronze Bullet (7-5) as the horse to beat. If you’re betting the Sunset Six, we recommend singling Bronze Bullet so you can keep costs affordable and spread deeper in more competitive legs of the sequence.

Good luck!