Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Playing Hawthorne’s Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, June 18 at Hawthorne and Churchill Downs, including a ticket for Hawthorne’s $537 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $2,000 Early Pick 4 Hit It and Split It at Churchill Downs: Hit the Early Pick 4 at Churchill Downs for a chance to split a $2,000 prize pool each racing Thursday in June.
• 8x Rewards Points at Charlottetown - Red Shores: Receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Charlottetown Red Shores each racing day until June 27.
• $250,000 Minimum Guarantee Jackpot 8: Play the Jackpot 8 at Churchill Downs on TwinSpires for a chance to win a guaranteed payout of $250,000 for any single winner of the entire Jackpot 8.
• Royal Ascot $10 Bet Back: Receive a Bonus Bet up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse finishes second or third in selected races at Royal Ascot from Tuesday through Saturday.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Royal Ascot Challenge
• $50 Belmont at the Big A Challenge
• $140 Belmont at the Big A Feeder to 6/26 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier
• $61 Churchill Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 6/21 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier
• $40 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $100 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $250 Churchill Downs Feeder to 6/20 Churchill Downs KDBC/BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Hawthorne: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:38 p.m. ET)

Trainer Larry Rivelli has gone 16-for-38 (42%) at Hawthorne this meet, which includes a 4-for-8 (50%) tally with first-time starters.

These stats bode well for #4 Liams Fancy (9-5), an unraced juvenile from Rivelli’s barn. The well-bred daughter of Liam’s Map has put together a sharp work tab capped off with a half-mile from the Hawthorne starting gate in :47 2/5, and she’s slated to be ridden by hot jockey Jareth Loveberry, who has gone 17-for-33 (52%) teaming up with Rivelli over the last two months.

Let’s key Liams Fancy on top of a trifecta using fellow first-time starters #3 Phinarosa (3-1) and #2 Second Opinion (4-1) underneath.

Selections

• #4 Liams Fancy (9-5)
• #3 Phinarosa (3-1)
• #2 Second Opinion (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 Trifecta: 4 with 2,3 with 2,3 ($30)

Churchill Downs: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 5:00 p.m. ET)

#4 Ez Pal (5-2), a son of early-maturing Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) winner Golden Pal, has the potential to win on debut for trainer Wesley Ward, a 29% winner with first-time starters.

Ez Pal has put together a sharp series of half-mile workouts at Keeneland and is slated to be ridden by five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Let’s place a large win bet on Ez Pal.

Selections

• #4 Ez Pal (5-2)
• #7 Randie’s Rascal (9-2)
• #8 August (7-2)

Wagers

• $50 to win on #4 Ez Pal

Churchill Downs: Race 7: $50,000 Starter Allowance (seven furlongs on dirt, 7:54 p.m. ET)

#9 Big Gain (7-2) faltered in a $50,000 starter allowance at Churchill Downs last month, finishing fourth by 7 1/2 lengths. But the distance was 1 1/16 miles, and Big Gain has fared better in sprints as of late.

Indeed, in his last two sprint starts, Big Gain has finished second in $12,500 starter allowances at Oaklawn Park and Keeneland, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 94 and 98.

None of the other horses entered in Race 7 have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 95, so a peak performance from Big Gain while cutting back in distance can send him to the winner’s circle under hot jockey Jose Ortiz.

Let’s bet Big Gain to win and key him over #2 Sharons Beach (6-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #9 Big Gain (7-2)
• #2 Sharons Beach (6-1)
• #3 Attersee (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #9 Big Gain
• $5 Exacta: 9 with 2
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Hawthorne: Race 2: $537 Pick 6 carryover (4:12 p.m. ET)

At first glance, Thursday’s $537 carryover in the $1 Pick 6 at Hawthorne might seem too small to pursue. But what if we can construct a winning ticket on a modest budget?

We’re confident the Pick 6 can be solved for under $75—perhaps much less if scratches remove a logical contender or two.

Here’s how we recommend betting the Pick 6:

Wager

• $1 Pick 6: 7 with 4,5,6 with 4,7 with 1 with 1,2,6,7 with 4,7,9 ($72)

Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (7 1/2 furlongs on turf)

#7 Urgent Action (8-5) debuted with a third-place finish in a non-state-restricted maiden special weight on dirt at Hawthorne. As a son of Oscar Performance, he’s bred to handle turf, and tackling the Illinois-bred ranks should make Urgent Action tough to beat. It helps that he’s trained by Chris Block, who has gone 7-for-14 (50%) at Hawthorne this meet. We’ll single Urgent Action to start the Pick 6.

Race 3: $6,250 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt)

#4 Street Style (2-1) is a logical favorite after finishing a close second over this track and class level on May 31. But #5 Black Russian (3-1) and #6 Incorporated (9-2) could challenge while dropping in class.

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf)

#7 Cataenjo (7-2) debuted with a respectable fifth-place finish in an Aqueduct maiden special weight and should find the competition more manageable at Hawthorne. But #4 Sunny Ray (3-1) has run almost as fast on the Brisnet Speed rating scale and exits a sharp runner-up finish in a Horseshoe Indianapolis maiden special weight. We’ll use them both.

Race 5: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt)

#1 Twirling Roses (5-2) is dropping in class after recording a couple of top-four finishes in $10,000 and $17,500 starter optional claimers at Hawthorne. The eight-year-old gelding owns the best recent Brisnet Speed ratings in this field and looms as a logical single.

Race 6: $10,000 Starter Optional Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt)

This is arguably the most competitive leg of the Pick 6. We’ll spread deep with #1 Mamba Out (6-1), #2 Little Sass (5-1), #6 Wampus Kitten (4-1), and #7 Icy River (7-2).

Race 7: $10,000 Starter Optional Claiming (one mile on turf)

#7 Moogie Son (3-1), victorious in a recent $15,000 claimer racing one mile over the Hawthorne turf, is a logical win threat for hot trainer Larry Rivelli. But stablemate #9 Silver Quarters (5-1) has won three of his last four starts and shouldn’t be underestimated. We’ll round out our ticket with #4 Even the Wind (4-1), runner-up in a recent $12,500 claimer at Hawthorne for Chris Block.

Good luck!