Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Saratoga’s $55,493 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, June 5 at Gulfstream Park, Saratoga, and Churchill Downs, including a horse to single in Saratoga’s $55,493 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 5x Points on Harness Racing: Receive 5x points on all wagers at harness tracks (excluding show bets) each Wednesday and Thursday from May 7 through June 26.
• Belmont Stakes Racing Festival 15% Odds Boost: Receive a 15% odds boost (up to $50 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Saratoga for the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival on Wednesday and Thursday.
• Churchill Downs Triple Rewards Points: Receive triple rewards point on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Churchill Downs from Wednesday through Friday.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $100 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 6/21 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier
• $200 Churchill Downs Feeder to 6/14 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier
• $70 Churchill Downs Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 12:50 p.m. ET)

#4 Le Sunshine (7-2) debuted in the Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies S. dashing five furlongs over the Gulfstream Park turf course. After pressing hot fractions of :21.05 and :44.49, she tired to finish eighth, but was beaten only 1 1/4 lengths for third place.

Dropping down in class for a maiden special weight should help Le Sunshine visit the winner’s circle for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, who wins at a 19% rate with second-time starters. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #4 Le Sunshine (7-2)
• #5 Spicy Princess (5-2)
• #2 Back Ring Buzz (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Le Sunshine

Saratoga: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 1:13 p.m. ET)

#4 Hideaway (3-1) is dropping in class after finishing seventh in the 1 1/16-mile Edgewood (G2) on turf at Churchill Downs. She was beaten only 2 3/4 lengths for second place against a deep field including Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) third-place finisher Nitrogen and Natalma (G1) runner-up Vixen.

Hideaway should find the competition a bit easier at Saratoga, and she’s picking up five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Let’s bet Hideaway to win and key her over #2 New Attitude (8-1) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #4 Hideaway (3-1)
• #2 New Attitude (8-1)
• #3 Share Repurchase (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Hideaway
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 2
  Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 8: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 8:23 p.m. ET)

#6 Rock It (8-1) raced greenly when debuting in a 1 1/16-mile turf maiden special weight at Keeneland, ultimately finishing 10th by a wide margin.

Now Rock It is switching to dirt, cutting back to 6 1/2 furlongs, dropping in class for a $50,000 maiden claimer, and adding blinkers. All these changes could add up to significant improvement, so let’s try a modest win bet on Rock It.

Selections

• #6 Rock It (8-1)
• #5 Excellent Chance (8-1)
• #2 Battle School (8-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #6 Rock It

Carryover Watch

Saratoga: Race 5: $55,493 Pick 6 carryover (2:52 p.m. ET)

The Pick 6 at Saratoga went unsolved on Wednesday, opening day of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. As a result, the $1 wager boasts a non-jackpot carryover worth $55,493 for Thursday’s card.

There’s a chance the Pick 6 will go unclaimed once again, triggering a double carryover into Friday. Thursday’s sequence is challenging; even after excluding also-eligible and main-track-only entrants from consideration, the six races contain 58 horses (averaging about 9.7 per race) and 777,600 possible outcomes.

There’s good news though. Race 6, a $50,000 allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on dirt, features a viable single in the form of #8 Velvet Vortex (2-1).

Velvet Vortex debuted with a sharp win in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Fair Grounds. After pressing a hot pace in second place, she wore down frontrunning Velvet Devil to prevail by three-quarters of a length, earning a 95 Brisnet Speed rating. Velvet Devil pulled 8 1/2 lengths clear of the rest and returned to win her next start, so it’s safe to say Velvet Vortex ran well.

Unfortunately, Velvet Vortex faltered as a short-priced favorite in her second start, finishing fourth in a 6 1/2-furlong $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Keeneland. However, there were extenuating circumstances. Racing over a drying-out track labeled good, Velvet Vortex chased blazing fractions of :21.57 and :44.41 before understandably weakening in the homestretch. Deep closers swept the exacta, but Velvet Vortex was beaten only a head and a nose for second place.

Just how fast was the pace at Keeneland? Fast enough that Velvet Vortex earned massive Brisnet E1 and E2 Pace ratings of 101 and 109. Those numbers tower over Thursday’s field, and even the 97 and 99 ratings Velvet Vortex posted in her debut stamp her as generally faster than her Saratoga rivals.

This means Velvet Vortex has every chance to set or press a modest pace while stretching out over one mile, leaving her with plenty in the tank to draw off down the Saratoga homestretch. Keep in mind, trainer Brad Cox wins at a 28% rate with horses running long for the first time.

Throw in the fact none of Velvet Vortex’s rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 95, and all signs suggest the morning-line favorite is well-spotted to deliver victory under hot jockey Flavien Prat.

Good luck!