Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Second-time starter at 20-1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, May 15 at Gulfstream Park, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Churchill Downs, along with horses to play in a pair of carryovers at Hawthorne.

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• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 5x Points on Harness Racing: Receive 5x points on all wagers at harness tracks (excluding show bets) each Wednesday and Thursday from May 7 through May 29.
• 10x Tournament Points Boost: Receive 10x points on all tournament wagers (excluding show bets) on Thursday.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $100 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 5/24 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier
• $50 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $100 Churchill Downs Feeder to 5/18 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 1:22 p.m. ET)

Since 2020, trainer Carlos David has compiled an excellent 51-for-241 (21%) record saddling two-year-olds at Gulfstream Park. So far this year, both of David’s juvenile runners have finished second.

David can pick up a win on Thursday with #6 Evolution (9-5). The daughter of Brethren finished second in her debut dashing 4 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland last month and is a logical win threat while returning to Florida, where she’s conducted all of her serious training.

Evolution’s unraced stablemate #8 Forever Hustlin (9-2) can battle with #9 Tully Road (3-1) to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Evolution (9-5)
• #9 Tully Road (3-1)
• #8 Forever Hustlin (9-2)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 6 with 8,9 ($20)

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 3:43 p.m. ET)

Trainer Israel Acevedo has gone 1-for-43 (2%) saddling first-time starters since 2021, so we’ll forgive #1 Emily’s Joy (20-1) for finishing sixth in her debut dashing 4 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland last month. She may not have been cranked for a peak performance.

In contrast, Acevedo has gone 6-for-26 (23%) saddling second-time starters in recent years, suggesting Emily’s Joy can move forward and win while facing possibly easier competition at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Let’s try a modest win bet on this double-digit longshot.

Selections

• #1 Emily’s Joy (20-1)
• #6 Clowning Around (9-5)
• #10 Nanina (5-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #1 Emily’s Joy

Churchill Downs: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 5:29 p.m. ET)

High-percentage trainer Larry Rivelli has gone 2-for-2 debuting juveniles at Churchill Downs this meet. Rivelli has a strong chance to make that 3-for-3 with #4 Shez Twisted (5-2) on Thursday.

Shez Twisted enters off a sharp series of workouts at Hawthorne, including a swift half-mile from the starting gate in :47 2/5. Hot jockey Jareth Loveberry (a 30% winner teaming up with Rivelli over the last two months) is named to ride, so Shez Twisted is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #4 Shez Twisted (5-2)
• #7 Mi Amiga (5-1)
• #3 Color Comin’ In (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Shez Twisted

Carryover Watch

Hawthorne: Race 2: $988 Pick 6 carryover (4:05 p.m. ET)
Hawthorne: Race 7: $3,341 Super High 5 carryover (6:13 p.m. ET)

Carryover chasers have a couple of options to pursue on Thursday at Hawthorne.

The $1 Super High 5 boasts the bigger prize pool at $3,341, but the $1 Pick 6 also features a value-adding carryover worth $988.

The Super High 5 is up for grabs in Race 7, the final leg of the Pick 6. It’s a $10,000 starter optional claimer slated to take place over 1 1/16 miles on turf, though with rain a possibility at Hawthorne, there’s at least an outside chance the race will be taken off the turf.

Assuming the races stays on grass, #2 Temper Tantrum (5-1) is a must-use contender at nice odds. The seven-year-old gelding boasts a 7-for-19 record on turf, which includes a sharp victory in a $12,500 claimer at Hawthorne one week ago. In that one-mile contest, Temper Tantrum tracked a slow pace in third place before launching a rail rally to take over and defeat #6 Shady McGee (6-1) and #9 Bakaneko (8-1) by 1 1/4 lengths.

Temper Tantrum has won three out of six starts since transferring to the care of high-percentage trainer Larry Rivelli last fall, and breaking from post 2 sets the stage for another ground-saving trip. Temper Tantrum should be included on Pick 6 tickets, and Super High 5 bettors should consider counting on him to finish in the top three.

Shady McGee is likewise worth including on Pick 6 tickets, and Brisnet Speed ratings suggest #7 Wicked Suprise (3-1) is a win contender too. He was last seen finishing second over this course, distance, and class level on Oct. 13. Hot trainer Cheryl Winebaugh wins at a respectable 14% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so Wicked Suprise has a big chance to factor in his 2025 debut. Don’t leave him off your Super High 5 tickets.

As for the rest of the Pick 6, one of the most interesting legs is Race 4, a maiden special weight for fillies and mares racing one mile and 70 yards on dirt. #5 Eliza Vance (7-5) is the morning-line favorite, but she’s yet to race farther than 5 1/2 furlongs and enters off a subpar fifth-place finish over this track and class level in her 2025 debut. Trainer Larry Rivelli wins at only a 9% rate with horses running long for the first time, so Eliza Vance doesn’t appear unbeatable while stretching out nearly three furlongs in distance.

#1 Unkept Promises (9-2) is an intriguing alternative. She failed to factor in her first two starts sprinting, but improved dramatically when stretching out over this track, distance, and class level on April 24. After pressing the pace and taking over the lead, she battled on to finish second by two lengths with a respectable 61 Brisnet Speed rating.

With the question marks surrounding Eliza Vance, we suggest making Unkept Promises a Pick 6 single.

Good luck!