Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Trifectas at Gulfstream, Fair Grounds

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Feb. 26 at Gulfstream Park, Fair Grounds, and Turfway Park, along with analysis of the $14,968 Pick 6 carryover at Oaklawn Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 15% Odds Boost at Oaklawn Park: Receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 for the day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Oaklawn Park each racing Thursday in February.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Oaklawn Challenge
• $200 Oaklawn Feeder to 3/1 Rebel KDBC Qualifier
• $40 Fair Grounds Challenge
• $80 Fair Grounds Feeder to 3/14 Virginia Derby/Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier
• $50 Turfway Park Challenge
• $160 Turfway Park Feeder to 3/7 Tampa Bay Derby/Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 3: $8,000 Claiming (five furlongs on Tapeta, 1:20 p.m. ET)

#1 Beautiful Crazy (6-5) looms as a standout favorite while dropping in class. In two starts since returning from a layoff, she’s finished fourth in a $25,000 allowance optional claimer and fourth in a $25,000 claimer, both sprinting five furlongs over the Gulfstream Tapeta.

Trainer Jose D’Angelo wins at a sharp 23% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, so let’s key Beautiful Crazy on top of #2 Stubold (3-1) and #7 Maerdama (5-2) in a trifecta.

Selections

• #1 Beautiful Crazy (6-5)
• #7 Maerdama (5-2)
• #2 Stubold (3-1)

Wagers

• $10 Trifecta: 1 with 2,7 with 2,7 ($20)

Fair Grounds: Race 4: $35,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 3:15 p.m. ET)

#6 Rue Lala (2-1) has been in sharp form since returning from a layoff. First, she won a $50,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the Fair Grounds turf. Then, in a $35,000 allowance optional claimer for Louisiana-breds over the same course and distance, she won again.

Tackling another $35,000 allowance optional claimer for Louisiana-breds should allow Rue Lala to snag a third straight win. #1 Bet Towinit (3-1) and #2 Six String (3-1) can chase her home.

Selections

• #6 Rue Lala (2-1)
• #1 Bet Towinit (3-1)
• #2 Six String (3-1)

Wagers

• $16 Exacta: 6 with 1
• $4 Trifecta: 6 with 1 with 2
  Total: $20

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#1 Emerald Spun (9-2) showed promise in her debut sprinting six furlongs over this track and class level. After dropping back to ninth place, she rallied steadily to finish third, beaten only three lengths while earning a 79 Brisnet Speed rating higher than the par winning number (78) for Thursday’s conditions.

Trainer Rodolphe Brisset wins at a lofty 28% rate with second-time starters, and Emerald Spun is bred to relish stretching out over one mile, so a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #1 Emerald Spun (9-2)
• #4 Miss Milky Way (7-2)
• #8 Flower River (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Emerald Spun

Carryover Watch

Oaklawn Park: Race 4: $14,968 Pick 6 carryover (3:03 p.m. ET)

The betting highlight of Thursday’s card at Oaklawn Park is a $14,968 carryover in the $1 Classix Pick 6.

The sequence gets underway in Race 4, a $32,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races. #1 Onmywaytosavthday (5-2) is favored to win the six-furlong dirt dash. She’s dropping in class after rallying to finish third (beaten only a half-length) in a one-mile $75,000 claimer for non-winners of two races at Oaklawn on Dec. 20.

But is Onmywaytosavthday a lock to win? Not necessarily. She’s lost numerous times competing for claiming tags from $10,000 to $30,000 in Kentucky, and when she finished third at Oaklawn, she actually came home a neck behind #8 Thea (3-1), who is back for Race 4.

Formerly based in California, Thea ran second by a neck on Dec. 20, which marked her debut at Oaklawn. She subsequently ran fifth and fourth in a pair of two-turn allowances. Dropping in class for a $32,000 claimer should suit Thea, so we prefer her over Onmywaytosavthday, though bettors with large budgets may wish to use both.

One of the most intriguing Pick 6 legs is Race 7, a six-furlong maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies. #4 Helene’s Power (3-1) is going to be a popular choice after rallying from midfield to finish second by a neck over this track, distance, and class level on Feb. 5. But might #5 Black Magic River (9-2) be the better choice?

Black Magic River finished fifth on Feb. 5, but there were extenuating circumstances. She set blazing fractions of :21.62 and :45.74 that benefited Helene’s Power. Despite the intensity of the pace, Black Magic River led until inside the final furlong.

There isn’t a ton of speed on paper in Race 7, so if Black Magic River is able to set a more relaxed pace, she may be capable of turning the tables on Helene’s Power. Use them both in the Pick 6.

The sequence concludes with Race 9, a $12,500 maiden claimer for Arkansas-bred fillies and mares. #9 Paris Accord (9-5) is a logical favorite to win the six-furlong sprint after finishing second and third in her last two starts, both $20,000 maiden claimers for Arkansas-breds. The class drop may unlock a winning performance.

Still, it could be a mistake to underestimate #8 Jack’s Gal (4-1), who is likewise dropping in class after finishing fifth in a $50,000 maiden claimer and fourth in a $40,000 maiden claimer, both at Oaklawn. She earned back-to-back 58 Brisnet Speed ratings not far off Paris Accord’s career-best 62, and take note, trainer Tammy Hornsby wins at a strong 31% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

We recommend using both Paris Accord and Jack’s Gal in the Pick 6.

Good luck!