Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Two Churchill exactas

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Nov. 12 at Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a pair of exactas.

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• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It at Churchill Downs: Opt in and hit the Late Pick 5 at Churchill Downs for a chance to split the $2,500 prize pool each racing Thursday in November, from Nov. 5 through Nov. 19.
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• $86 Churchill Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 11/14 Churchill Downs Claiming Crown NHC Qualifier
• $80 Belmont Park Feeder to 11/20 Churchill Downs CBC Bonus Feeder
• $200 Churchill Downs Feeder to 11/21 Churchill Downs CBC Qualifier
• $40 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $120 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $40 Charles Town Challenge
• $80 Charles Town Feeder to 11/13 Churchill Downs NHC Bonus Feeder

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 1:00 p.m. ET)

#5 I Like to Party (8-5) is an unraced son of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Life Is Good, who is siring a sharp 19% winners from first-time starters.

Quick workouts (including a bullet five furlongs in :59 3/5 at Churchill Downs) suggest I Like to Party has the talent to factor on debut for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Luis Saez and Brian Lynch, who have gone 6-for-11 (55%) teaming up together over the last two months.

Let’s key I Like to Party over #4 Oscar’s Party (3-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #5 I Like to Party (8-5)
• #4 Oscar’s Party (3-1)
• #2 With You (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 5 with 4

Churchill Downs: Race 5: $100,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 2:57 p.m. ET)

#1 Hathaway (4-1) got off to a bad start when debuting with a sixth-place finish in a Keeneland maiden special weight. For her second start, she’s dropping in class, adding blinkers, and picking up hot apprentice jockey Yomar Ortiz Jr. (who rides with a seven-pound weight allowance), setting the stage for improvement.

Let’s try a win bet on Hathaway and play her over #6 Order Restored (9-5) in an exacta.

Selections

• #1 Hathaway (4-1)
• #6 Order Restored (9-5)
• #3 Leedu (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Hathaway
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 6
  Total: $25

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 5:41 p.m. ET)

#9 Sibilla (5-2) debuted in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint at this track and class level last month. She rallied from off the pace to finish second with a 54 Brisnet Speed rating only four points lower than the par winning number for Thursday’s conditions.

As a daughter of Mandaloun out of a mare by Liam’s Map, Sibilla has the pedigree to stretch out over one mile. Plus, it’s encouraging to note she’s trained by Philip Bauer, a strong 23% winner with second-time starters.

We’ll bet Sibilla to win.

Selections

• #9 Sibilla (5-2)
• #7 Hoosier Surprise (2-1)
• #10 Alloutjustice (9-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #9 Sibilla

Good luck!