Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Two Hawthorne carryovers

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, July 3 at Ellis Park and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with analysis of carryovers at Hawthorne.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 10x Points on Harness Racing: Receive 10x points on all wagers at harness tracks (excluding show bets) each Thursday in July.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
• 20x Tournament Points Boost: Receive 20x points on all tournament wagers from July 1 through July 31.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Ellis Park Challenge
• $200 Ellis Park Feeder to 7/14 Ellis Park MMBC Qualifier
• $100 Charles Town Feeder to 7/5 Indiana Derby KDBC/NHC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Ellis Park: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

During the 2024 meet at Ellis Park, trainer Brendan Walsh compiled an excellent 5-for-18 (28%) record debuting juveniles. That included a 3-for-7 (43%) tally on dirt.

These stats suggest Walsh’s two-year-old filly #7 Cue the Drama (4-1) is a threat to win her first start. A daughter of juvenile Grade 1 winner Complexity (who sires a sharp 16% winners from first-time starters), Cue the Drama has posted encouraging workouts at Keeneland, including half a mile in :48 1/5.

Let’s bet Cue the Drama to win.

Selections

• #7 Cue the Drama (4-1)
• #5 Runadhara (5-1)
• #8 Sonic Sass (7-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #7 Cue the Drama

Ellis Park: Race 8: Allowance (seven furlongs on dirt, 4:12 p.m. ET)

#11 Comes a Time (10-1) started twice as a juvenile last year. He defeated a next-out winner in his debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct, then faltered to finish eighth when stepping up in class and distance for the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense (G3).

The Street Sense was a tough race. The top three finishers were future Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont (G1) winner Sovereignty, eventual Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Tiztastic, and future Arkansas Derby (G1) hero Sandman.

Comes a Time is adding Lasix for his three-year-old debut and should appreciate dropping back down in class and distance for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox. A win bet is in order, along with exactas using #7 Fact (5-2) and #5 McKinzie Street (6-1) for second place.

Selections

• #11 Comes a Time (10-1)
• #7 Fact (5-2)
• #5 McKinzie Street (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #11 Comes a Time
• $6 Exacta: 11 with 7
• $4 Exacta: 11 with 5
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 3:12 p.m. ET)

The experienced runners in this field don’t appear overly formidable, so we’ll try backing #3 Jutland (4-1). As a son of three-time Grade 1-winning grass runner Raging Bull out of a mare by War Front, Jutland is bred to excel on turf.

Trainer Kelsey Danner wins at a respectable 10% rate with horses debuting on turf, and Danner’s 4-for-10 (40%) record at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet cements Jutland as an appealing contender under hot jockey Adam Beschizza. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #3 Jutland (4-1)
• #2 Free Choice (5-1)
• #8 Casa Cielo (3-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #3 Jutland

Carryover Watch

Hawthorne: Race 3: $518 Pick 6 carryover (4:42 p.m. ET)
Hawthorne: Race 8: $2,098 Super High 5 carryover (7:16 p.m. ET)

Bettors with a penchant for chasing carryovers have a couple of options to pursue on Thursday at Hawthorne.

The $1 Pick 6 has tossed up a $518 carryover, while the prize pool for the $1 Super High 5 stands at $2,098.

Best Pick 6 single: Race 7, #2 Another Mystery (9-5)

Pick 6 players looking for a single to build tickets around are advised to back Another Mystery in Race 7, a $40,000-$60,000 allowance optional claimer taking place over one mile on turf.

At one time, Another Mystery was a graded stakes-caliber performer with a win in the 2022 John B. Connally Turf Cup (G3) ranking as his greatest triumph. These days, he competes with aplomb at easier class levels. His 8-6-2-0 lifetime tally over the Hawthorne lawn includes a couple of stakes wins in 2024, and he recently returned to Hawthorne with a 1 1/4-length triumph in a $40,000-$60,000 allowance optional claimer racing 7 1/2 furlongs.

Sticking to the same class level for his second local start of the season should make Another Mystery tough to beat for red-hot trainer Chris Block, who has gone 13-for-36 (36%) at Hawthorne this meet.

Best horses to play in Super High 5: #4 Lost Sunset (3-1) and #6 Honor His Half (5-2)

The Super High 5 is available to play in Race 8, a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the main track. Morning-line favorite Honor His Half looms as a strong candidate to finish in the top three.

The three-year-old filly has competed consistently in three straight $5,000 claiming sprints over the Hawthorne dirt, finishing second, third, and second while earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 71, 65, and 70 that stack up well against Thursday’s field.

However, Lost Sunset has run a bit faster. The speedy six-year-old mare earned ratings of 72 and 74 when wiring a pair of six-furlong $5,000 claimers at Hawthorne last year. She then put up a 73 when kicking off 2025 with a third-place finish in a $7,500 claimer at Hawthorne.

Lost Sunset misfired in her latest try, finishing fifth in a $12,500 claimer, but dropping back down to the $5,000 level should enable a rebound. Take note, trainer Frank Kirby strikes at a 30% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

We recommend keying Lost Sunset on top and counting on Honor His Half to finish either second or third.

• $1 Super High 5: 4 with 6 with 1,2,5 with 1,2,5 with 1,2,5,7,8 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 4 with 1,2,5 with 6 with 1,2,5 with 1,2,5,7,8 ($18)
  Total: $36

Good luck!