Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Win plays on price horses

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Jan. 15 at Gulfstream Park, Fair Grounds, and Turfway Park, including horses to use in Turfway’s $6,503 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 2 for $2,000 Exacta Hit It and Split It at Turfway Park: Hit two exactas at Turfway Park for a chance to split a $2,000 prize pool each Thursday in January.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $120 Aqueduct Feeder to 1/17 Lecomte KDBC Qualifier
• $50 Fair Grounds Challenge
• $200 Fair Grounds Feeder to 1/25 Fair Grounds/Aqueduct KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $50 Turfway Park Challenge
• $120 Turfway Park Feeder to 1/31 Southwest KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 2: $17,500 Maiden Claiming (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, 12:50 p.m. ET)

#1 Supreme Honor (6-1) was soundly beaten when eighth in the FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality S. last time out. But the competition was deep: runaway winner Strategic Risk returned to take the Smarty Jones S. on the Road to the Kentucky Derby in his next start.

Adding Lasix, removing blinkers, plunging in class, and switching from dirt to Tapeta may unlock a winning performance from Supreme Honor. Let’s try a modest win bet on the bay colt.

Selections

• #1 Supreme Honor (6-1)
• #7 Buck’s Howl (7-2)
• #2 Herbstreit (2-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Supreme Honor

Fair Grounds: Race 8: $50,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 5:15 p.m. ET)

#12 Sharp Mindset (7-2) has started twice in maiden special weight sprints on turf. In her debut at Saratoga, she finished fifth by five lengths against next-out Bolton Landing S. winner Snow Face Princess. Then at Churchill Downs, Sharp Mindset finished eighth while beaten only 3 1/4 lengths.

Dropping in class for a $50,000 maiden optional claimer should make Sharp Mindset tough to beat for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Paco Lopez and Joe Sharp. A large win bet is in order.

Selections

• #12 Sharp Mindset (7-2)
• #9 Auntie Vodka (8-1)
• #11 Gus’s Gal (9-2)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #12 Sharp Mindset

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#1 Resplendence (8-1) has shown some ability competing in maiden special weights. In a one-mile grass contest at Kentucky Downs, she finished fifth behind next-out Miss Grillo (G2) winner Ground Support. Then in a one-mile dirt test at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Resplendence set the pace before staying on to finish second by a nose.

Horses exiting races at Horseshoe Indianapolis often perform well when trying Tapeta at Turfway Park. At 8-1, Resplendence is worthy of a win bet.

We’ll also bet Resplendence on top of #3 Polly Darling (12-1) in a small exacta. Since 2021, trainer William Cowans has gone 2-for-4 (50%) saddling first-time starters in route races at Turfway.

Selections

• #1 Resplendence (8-1)
• #3 Polly Darling (12-1)
• #9 Core Memories (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Resplendence
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 3
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 9: $6,503 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

The $1 Super High 5 at Turfway Park proved unsolvable in Wednesday’s final race at Turfway Park, Penitent, a 40-1 longshot and a horse we recommended betting, prevailed by a head. The next four horses across the finish line were almost as inscrutable, starting at odds of 20-1, 18-1, 5-1, and 38-1.

Suffice to say, no one hit the Super High 5, so the carryover for Thursday’s card stands at $6,503.

Thursday’s Super High 5 is available to play in Race 9, a maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. An overflow field of 14 has entered, though with two early scratches, the also-eligible entrants are expected to start.

Here are five horses we recommend including on your tickets:

#2 American Summer (6-1): Nine timed workouts at Turfway Park, including a recent bullet half-mile in :47 4/5, suggest American Summer will be fit for a competitive debut. It’s encouraging to note trainer Kelsey Danner has been on fire at Turfway since Jan. 1, going 4-for-11 (36%).

#4 Overlook (5-2): Overlook debuted over this track, distance, and class level on Dec. 10. After making a midrace move into second place, she weakened slightly to run third with a respectable 74 Brisnet Speed rating. Adding Lasix for her second start should put her in the hunt for another top-three finish.

#11 American Tapit (5-1): Four previous starts against maiden special weight competition on dirt and turf have yielded four runner-up finishes for American Tapit. Perhaps the consistent daughter of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah will move forward while switching to Tapeta and adding blinkers and Lasix for red-hot trainer Horacio De Paz.

#13 Cup of Coffee (4-1): After showing promise on dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Cup of Coffee ran strongly in a six-furlong maiden special weight on Dec. 11 at Turfway. She dueled for the lead before battling on to finish second by half a length, earning a 76 Brisnet Speed rating. She’s a logical win threat in her second try at Turfway.

#14 Tapajo Belle (10-1): Tapajo Belle debuted against Cup of Coffee on Dec. 11 and rallied from far back to finish fifth, beaten 5 1/4 lengths for first place. With this effort under her belt, Tapajo Belle is eligible to move forward on Thursday. Another top-five finish could be within reach.

Good luck!