Tips, picks, and bets for the 2025 Tremont and Astoria at Saratoga

It can be tricky to handicap early-season stakes races for two-year-olds, such as Thursday’s $150,000 Tremont S. and $150,000 Astoria S. at Saratoga.

Several factors make such races difficult to decipher:

• Many of the entrants in early-season juvenile stakes have raced only once, so there isn’t much form to analyze.
• Determining how occasional unraced entrants stack up against proven winners isn’t easy.
• These races often attract multiple horses who won in gate-to-wire fashion against easier competition on debut. When multiple frontrunners like these knock heads in a stakes, a pace meltdown can ensue and favor late runners.
• Not every horse is cranked to win first-time out, so maidens who lost their first start can improve dramatically and spring upsets even while joining the stakes ranks for their second start.

We’ll keep these factors in mind as we plan our bets for the Tremont and Astoria.

Saratoga Race 1: Tremont S. wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Blinging It Back
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 3
  Total: $25

This 5 1/2-furlong dirt dash has drawn only five entries. Three of them—#3 Mythical (8-5), #4 Mercilesanihilator (4-1), and #5 Romeo (9-5)—are gate-to-wire debut winners racing for the second time. If a speed duel unfolds, it could set the stage for a late-running winner.

That’s why we’re siding with #2 Blinging It Back (3-1). This son of Grade 1-winning sprinter Volatile broke slowly and raced greenly when debuting against Mercilesanihilator in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. Nevertheless, he gobbled up ground down the homestretch to finish third by 1 3/4 lengths.

Having gotten some experience under his belt, Blinging It Back is eligible to improve for trainer Mark Casse, who wins at a 19% rate with second-time starters. We’ll bet him to win and key him over the runaway Gulfstream maiden winner Mythical in an exacta.

Saratoga Race 3: Astoria S. wagers

• $20 Exacta: 3 with 6
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 4
  Total: $25

Half a dozen fillies will sprint 5 1/2 furlongs over the main track in the Astoria. Unlike the Tremont, there’s only one gate-to-wire debut winner in the Astoria entries: #3 Sassy C W (8-5).

Sassy C W stunned in her debut, sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs over the Churchill Downs dirt. She opened up a six-length early lead through hot fractions of :21.91 and :44.89 and cruised to the finish line in front by 5 1/4 lengths in the strong time of :51.34.

A similar performance should make Sassy C W mighty tough to catch in the Astoria. We’ll bet her on top of exacta tickets using Aqueduct maiden winner #6 Vernon Valley (2-1) and first-time starter #4 Ticket to Ride (10-1) for second place. The latter enters off a quick half-mile workout in :47 3/5 at Saratoga, suggesting she has some talent.

Good luck!