Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 10-1 debut at Indianapolis

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Nov. 3 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Zia Park, along with a horse to single in Mahoning Valley’s $4,315 Pick 5 carryover.

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• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 50% Profit Boost Tokens at Horseshoe Indianapolis: Opt in to receive three 50% Profit Boost Tokens (maximum boost of $25 per token) for win wagers at Horseshoe Indianapolis on Tuesday, Nov. 3.
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Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $80 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 11/6 Churchill Downs CBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $80 Mountaineer Feeder to 11/13 Churchill Downs NHC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:00 p.m. ET)

The experienced runners in this field don’t appear overly formidable, so we’ll try betting first-time starter #6 Persisted (10-1).

Persisted is a daughter of Metropolitan H. (G1) winner Bee Jersey, who sires a sharp 18% winners from first-time starters. She enters off a couple respectable half-mile workouts at Horseshoe Indianapolis (including one from the starting gate in :48 4/5) and has a shot to outrun her 10-1 morning-line odds.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #6 Persisted (10-1)
• #1 Gonna Be Golden (3-1)
• #9 Echo Paradise (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Persisted

Zia Park: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:47 p.m. ET)

Two-year-old #6 True to the Test (7-2) looks like a threat to win on debut for trainer Todd Fincher, who strikes at a strong 26% rate with horses debuting at the maiden special weight level.

True to the Test is a son of Sporting Chance, winner of the Hopeful (G1) as a juvenile and the sire of 17% winners from first-time starters. True to the Test’s dam is African Heat, a stakes-winning juvenile who has previously foaled True to the Test’s full siblings Higher Ed and Buy Local, stakes winners who placed against stakes company at age two.

This pedigree suggests True to the Test is cut out to succeed from an early age. Let’s bet him to win and key him over his stakes-placed stablemate #8 Boom Boom Go (3-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #6 True to the Test (7-2)
• #8 Boom Boom Go (3-1)
• #3 Zactoattack (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 True to the Test
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 8
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 5:00 p.m. ET)

This field of Indiana-bred fillies and mares hasn’t come up all that tough on paper, so we’ll favor the relatively untested three-year-old filly #7 Charming Justice (7-2).

Charming Justice has only raced once, rallying after a slow start to finish third at this track, distance, and class level on Oct. 14. She gained 4 1/2 lengths through the final furlong and finished only a head behind runner-up #8 Tiva (5-2), the morning-line favorite in Race 8.

If Charming Justice breaks better in her second start, she’ll have every chance to graduate for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Micah Meeks and Joseph Davis. Let’s bet her to win and key her over Tiva in a small exacta.

Selections

• #7 Charming Justice (7-2)
• #8 Tiva (5-2)
• #5 Blazen Eyes (4-1)

Wagers

• $24 to win on #7 Charming Justice
• $6 Exacta: 7 with 8
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: $4,315 Pick 5 carryover (12:15 p.m. ET)

The 50-cent Early Pick 5 at Mahoning Valley proved inscrutable on Monday. The betting favorite fell to defeat in every leg of the sequence, and longshots starting at 8-1, 9-1, and 23-1 visited the winner’s circle.

As a result, no one assembled a winning ticket, triggering a $4,315 carryover into Tuesday’s Early Pick 5.

Tuesday’s sequence features 41 entries (averaging 8.2 per race) and 32,340 possible outcomes. Neither number is unmanageable for a Pick 5, though the field look competitive, and assembling a winning ticket won’t be a walk in the park.

Bettors seeking a single to build tickets around have a possible option in the form of #4 Lluvia Fuerte (8-5), the morning-line favorite to win the opening race on the card.

Best single: #4 Lluvia Fuerte (8-5)

Race 1 is a maiden special weight for Ohio-bred two-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on dirt. Although she’s already lost twice at this class level, Lluvia Fuerte is a compelling favorite for two reasons. One, she’s placed in both of her starts, showing an ability to compete well against this caliber of competition. Two, she’s already beaten four of the six rivals she’ll face on Tuesday.

Lluvia Fuerte debuted on Oct. 1 in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Belterra Park. She carved out the pace before tiring to finish third by 5 3/4 lengths.

On Oct. 19, Lluvia Fuerte tackled a 5 1/2-furlong sprint at Mahoning Valley. This time, she opened up a three-length lead, only to weaken in the final furlong and finish second by half a length.

There’s a strong chance the third time will be the charm for Lluvia Fuerte. The two runners in Race 1 she hasn’t yet beaten, #5 Nina From Pasadena (4-1) and #6 Baroness (5-1), don’t appear overly formidable. Nina From Pasadena has lost all three of her starts at this class level by double-digit margins, while Baroness is a first-time starter who brings a modest-looking work tab to the table.

Thus, Lluvia Fuerte appears well-spotted to graduate in her third career start, stamping the chestnut filly as a logical Pick 5 single.

Good luck!