Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 3-1 in the Manitoba Matron

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Sept. 16 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Assiniboia Downs, along with a ticket for the $2,304 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Assiniboia Downs 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers to receive a 25% boost on all winning double wagers at Assiniboia Downs each Tuesday in September.
• 8x Points at Little Brown Jug: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) in all races at Delaware County Fairgrounds from Sept. 14-18.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $200 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 9/20 Pennsylvania Derby/Churchill Downs BCBC Qualifier
• $200 Mountaineer Feeder to 9/27 Churchill Downs KDBC/BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:10 p.m. ET)

#8 Gunzo (7-2) failed to show early speed in his Aug. 27 debut over this track and class level, breaking poorly and dropping 14 lengths off the pace. But he gradually got involved and gained 7 1/4 lengths through the final furlong alone to finish second by 1 1/4 lengths.

If Gunzo breaks cleanly in his second start, he can step forward and snatch a victory over Kentucky shipper #4 Seen You Later (2-1). We’ll place win and exacta bets accordingly.

Selections

• #8 Gunzo (7-2)
• #4 Seen You Later (2-1)
• #1 Tainted Justice (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Gunzo
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 4
  Total: $25

Assiniboia Downs: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 8:30 p.m. ET)

#4 Areunotentertained (4-5) has finished second, third, and second in his first three starts at Assiniboia Downs. One of those was a stakes.

Areunotentertained boasts sharp Brisnet Speed ratings, and he’s already defeated key rival #2 The Wright Way (2-1), so let’s key him on top of an exacta and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #4 Areunotentertained (4-5)
• #2 The Wright Way (2-1)
• #3 High Miler (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 4 with 2
• $15 Double: 4 with 3
  Total: $30

Assiniboia Downs: Race 2: Manitoba Matron S. (1 1/8 miles on dirt, 9:00 p.m. ET)

#1 Burrow Down (7-5) dominated the 2024 Manitoba Matron by 5 1/4 lengths. But she’s run well below form in her last two route races at Assiniboia Downs, so perhaps the red-hot three-year-old filly #3 Welcometohollywood (3-1) can spring a surprise.

Welcometohollywood has won three straight stakes against her own age group. Two starts back, she trounced the 1 1/16-mile Manitoba Oaks by 15 3/4 lengths. Last time out, she stayed 1 1/8 miles to win the Century Casino Oaks by three-quarters of a length.

We’ll single Welcometohollywood to conclude our double wager, then bet her over Burrow Down in an exacta.

Selections

• #3 Welcometohollywood (3-1)
• #1 Burrow Down (7-5)
• #5 Baby Gundin (5-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 3 with 1

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $2,304 Pick 5 carryover (3:30 p.m. ET)

The Tuesday card at Presque Isle Downs is highlighted by a $2,304 carryover in the 50-cent Early Pick 5.

Let’s analyze the sequence in race-by-race fashion and assemble a ticket for roughly $50:

Race 1: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta)

#2 Half Birthday (9-5) has recorded two wins and a second in his last three tries at the $5,000 level, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings along the way. But #5 I’m Heading East (8-5) ran second in an $8,500 claimer two starts back and is a serious win threat while dropping in class.

Race 2: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta)

#3 Warrior’s Notion (5-2) and #6 Michaelshatrick (9-2) look like the best of the local runners, but neither is a given to graduate at the $15,000 level. #4 Lookin Like Lucky (9-5) is arguably a better fit for the class level, but he’s unproven on Tapeta. We’ll use all three.

Race 3: $25,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta)

First-time starter #2 Miss Moxee (2-1) is shipping in from New York for trainer Linda Rice, who has gone 5-for-19 (26%) at Presque Isle this meet. Miss Moxee is a must-used contender, but local runner #3 Crimson Red (3-1) may challenge while dropping in class, and #4 King of Swords (4-1) has the pedigree to factor while trying Tapeta for the first time.

Race 4: $40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta)

#3 La Girvina (9-5) is a formidable contender after rattling off four straight wins running long at Presque Isle. But #2 Curlin’s Girl (8-5) has been facing tougher competition than La Girvina in sprints as of late and has the Brisnet Speed ratings to challenge.

Race 5: $6,250 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta)

#3 Wonder Wave (9-5) has cracked the trifecta in her last two starts sprinting over this track and class level. She’s a logical favorite, though #4 Grosse Ile (5-2)—who is trying Tapeta for the first time—must be used as backup in case she relishes the surface switch. We’ll also include recent $7,500 maiden claiming winner #6 Raven Dance (7-2).

• 50-cent Pick 5: 2,5 with 3,4,6 with 2,3,4 with 2,3 with 3,4,6 ($54)

Good luck!