Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $41,079 Pick 4 carryover at Horseshoe Indianapolis

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Nov. 4 at Finger Lakes and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a single for the $41,079 Pick 4 carryover at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $100 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 11/8 Churchill Downs CBC Qualifier
• $100 Mountaineer Feeder to 11/15 Churchill Downs Claiming Crown NHC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:44 p.m. ET)

#3 Last Call Jenna (7-2) showed speed in a $75,000 maiden optional claimer racing 1 1/16 miles over the Aqueduct turf last month. She raced in second for a half-mile before giving way to finish 11th.

Last Call Jenna is eligible to improve while switching to dirt, cutting back in distance, and squaring off against easier competition at Finger Lakes. It helps that she hails from the hot barn of Jeremiah Englehart, who has won with 24% of his starters at Finger Lakes this meet.

Let’s bet Last Call Jenna to win and key her over #6 Dancinwiththeboys (9-2) and #5 Dolcezza (6-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #3 Last Call Jenna (7-2)
• #6 Dancinwiththeboys (9-2)
• #5 Dolcezza (6-1)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #3 Last Call Jenna
• $4 Exacta: 3 with 5,6 ($8)
  Total: $30

Finger Lakes: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:40 p.m. ET)

#2 Op Overlord (7-2) has shown flashes of ability in her last couple of starts. In a six-furlong $35,000 maiden claimer on dirt at Aqueduct, she stayed reasonably close to the pace before tiring to finish fourth. Then in a one-mile $25,000 maiden claimer on turf at the Meadowlands, she raced in second for much of the way and stayed on to finish third by two lengths.

Op Overlord may find the competition a bit easier at Finger Lakes, so if her 7-2 morning-line odds hold up, the daughter of Omaha Beach is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #2 Op Overlord (7-2)
• #1 Simoom (5-1)
• #6 Scarlett Queen (5-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #2 Op Overlord

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#7 Frosted Warrior (9-5) has faced tougher competition in his first two starts than he’ll encounter on Tuesday. In his debut, he ran fourth (placed eighth via disqualification) in a Horseshoe Indianapolis maiden special weight. Then he ran 10th in a $50,000 maiden claimer at Keeneland.

Dropping in class for a $20,000 maiden claimer may unlock a winning performance from Frosted Warrior. Let’s key him over #8 Thirty Thirty (3-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #7 Frosted Warrior (9-5)
• #8 Thirty Thirty (3-1)
• #2 Cat’s Spirit (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 7 with 8

Carryover Watch

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: $41,079 Pick 4 carryover (4:14 p.m. ET)

Pick 4 carryovers are anything but common, yet there’s one up for grabs on Tuesday at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

What on earth happened? On Monday, the Late Pick 4 sequence at Horseshoe Indianapolis saw three of the four races end in major upsets. Horses starting at 12-1, 22-1, and 62-1 visited the winner’s circle, so no one solved the $1 wager, generating a $41,079 carryover.

Tuesday’s Late Pick 4 doesn’t look much easier to hit. The four races have drawn a total of 43 horses, averaging 10.75 per race. Every race has drawn at least eight entries, and before scratches there are 12,096 possible outcomes.

It’s difficult to find a trustworthy single in a sequence this competitive. But we believe #6 La Orgullosa (9-2) in Race 5 is worth a try at compelling odds.

Since transferring to the care of trainer Joseph Davis during the summer, La Orgullosa has shown improvement. In her first start for Davis, she led all the way to smash a $12,500 claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Horseshoe Indianapolis by 11 lengths, earning a career-best 81 Brisnet Speed rating. Then in a one-mile $12,500 claimer over the same track, La Orgullosa dueled for the lead for six furlongs before weakening to finish third, beaten only 2 3/4 lengths while earning a 71 Brisnet Speed rating.

If you draw a line through La Orgullosa’s latest effort (a fifth-place finish in a $12,500 claimer on turf), it’s hard to knock her form. Dropping down to the $5,000 level might be all she needs to score another victory. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Tuesday’s conditions is only 73, and furthermore, none of La Orgullosa’s Race 5 rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 80 this year (or a number higher than 75 on dirt this year).

La Orgullosa has drawn inside her primary pace rival, #9 Revs Run (6-1). With a little luck, she can beat Revs Run to the front, save ground on the inside, and lead all the way to win Race 5 as a Pick 4 single.

Good luck!