Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Big Kitty can win big

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, March 17 at Will Rogers Downs and Turf Paradise, along with a horse to single in Mahoning Valley’s $7,884 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 5x Rewards Points at Northfield Park: Receive 5x rewards points on all wagers at Northfield Park each racing Tuesday in March.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Parx Challenge
• $200 Parx Feeder to 3/21 Louisiana Derby/Jeff Ruby KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Will Rogers Downs: Race 8: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 5:34 p.m. ET)

After winning back-to-back $7,500 claimers at Will Rogers Downs by daylight margins, #4 Big Kitty (8-5) finished second in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance on Feb. 24. He was beaten only a half-length by Royalamerican, the third-place finisher from the Remington Springboard Mile S. on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Royalamerican bounced out of that allowance win to take the Welder S. at Will Rogers Downs, so Big Kitty’s near-miss against Royalamerican is an impressive bit of form. We’ll count on Big Kitty to triumph in his second try over this track and class level, keying him over #2 Washita Valley (5-2) and #3 Slades Tank (7-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #4 Big Kitty (8-5)
• #2 Washita Valley (5-2)
• #3 Slades Tank (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 4 with 2,3 ($30)

Turf Paradise: Race 4: $6,250 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:42 p.m. ET)

#1 Gi Gis Map (5-2) has won three starts in a row at Turf Paradise, including a $6,250 claimer. With improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 75, 76, and 78 under his belt, Gi Gis Map is a logical favorite to nab a fourth straight win for red-hot trainer Robertino Diodoro.

Let’s single Gi Gis Map to kick off a double wager.

Selections

• #1 Gi Gis Map (5-2)
• #4 Sing a Happy Sing (4-1)
• #5 Minedandrefined (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 Double: 1 with 2

Turf Paradise: Race 5: $8,500 Claiming (one mile on dirt, 6:12 p.m. ET)

Formerly based in California, #2 Mrazek’s Old Dream (5-2) made his Turf Paradise debut in an $8,500 claimer racing one mile on turf, rallying from off the pace to finish second by 1 1/4 lengths.

Returning to dirt should suit Mrazek’s Old Dream. Two starts back, he ran third in a $10,000 claimer racing one mile over the Santa Anita main track. Facing easier competition over the same distance at Turf Paradise should send Mrazek’s Old Dream to the winner’s circle, so let’s key him over #7 Big A’s Little One (7-2) in an exacta and single him to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #2 Mrazek’s Old Dream (5-2)
• #7 Big A’s Little One (7-2)
• #3 Inxpress (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 2 with 7

Carryover Watch

Mahoning Valley: Race 4: $7,884 Pick 5 carryover (1:39 p.m. ET)

If Mahoning Valley is able to race on Tuesday—cold temperatures, snow, and wind may have other ideas—the Ohio oval will have a $7,884 carryover up for grabs in the 50-cent Late Pick 5.

Mathematically speaking, the sequence appears straightforward to solve. The five races have drawn a combined 33 entries before scratches, averaging only 6.6 per race. Three of the races have attracted between five and six horses, and all told there are 11,520 possible Pick 5 outcomes, a modest number.

We can slice that number down to 1,920 just by singling #3 Hoof and Boots (4-5) in Race 4, the opening leg of the Late Pick 5. Race 4 is a maiden special weight for fillies and mares sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, and Hoof and Boots looms as a standout.

Hoof and Boots is shipping in after spending her first six starts competing at Laurel Park in Maryland. If you draw a line through two disappointing performances running long, the rest of her form is solid. On Feb. 14, she ran second in a six-furlong $40,000 maiden claimer, beaten only 2 1/2 lengths by next-out $40,000 claiming winner Juniper’s Jubilee.

That effort yielded a 78 Brisnet Speed rating, Hoof and Boots’ second straight 70+ rating. She’d previously earned a 74 when finishing second in a 5 1/2-furlong $25,000 maiden claimer, beaten 2 1/4 lengths by next-out $25,000 claiming winner Barbados Bulldog.

None of Hoof and Boots’ Tuesday rivals have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 62, so a typical performance from Hoof and Boots should land her in the Mahoning Valley winner’s circle. It helps that she’ll be ridden by hot jockey Luis Rivera, a 21% winner at Mahoning this meet. Bettors can feel confident singling Hoof and Boots to kick off the Late Pick 5.

Good luck!