Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Burrow Down can rebound in Canada Stakes

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, July 15 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Assiniboia Downs, along with a horse to single in the $2,894 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Assiniboia Downs 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers at Assiniboia Downs to receive a 25% boost (maximum $25 in total) on all winning double wagers for the day at Assiniboia Downs every racing day in July.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
• 8x Points at Red Shores: Receive 8x points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Charlottetown each Tuesday and Saturday in June and July, including each racing date from July 14-19 for Governor’s Plate.
• 20x Tournament Points Boost: Receive 20x points on all tournament wagers from July 1 through July 31.
• Presque Isle Downs $1,000 Early Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Early Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs on any Tuesday in July to win your share of a $1,000 weekly prize pool.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $30 Parx Challenge
• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $200 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 7/28 Ellis Park MMBC Qualifier
• $160 Assiniboia Downs Feeder to 7/20 Woodbine BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: $62,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on dirt, 4:14 p.m. ET)

#5 Pretty Sassy (3-1) showed strong form racing two turns during the winter at Fair Grounds. First she employed pace-tracking tactics to easily win a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight. Then she unleashed a determined homestretch bid to win a 1 1/16-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer by a head.

Those efforts yielded encouraging Brisnet Speed ratings of 87 and 83, which stack up well against the par winning number (87) for Tuesday’s conditions at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Let’s bet Pretty Sassy to win and play her over #1 Normandy Queen (2-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Pretty Sassy (3-1)
• #1 Normandy Queen (2-1)
• #7 Gran Mirella (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Pretty Sassy
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 1
  Total: $30

Assiniboia Downs: Race 5: Canada S. (7 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 10:15 p.m. ET)

#7 Sophia’s Storm (7-5) beat #1 Burrow Down (9-5) by half a length when they ran 1-2 in the six-furlong La Verendrye S. at Assiniboia Downs last month. But Burrow Down was closing ground nicely and may prove better-suited to racing 7 1/2 furlongs in the Canada.

After all, Sophia’s Storm has recently excelled sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs or less, whereas Burrow Down won stakes races over 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles at Assiniboia last year.

Let’s bet Burrow Down on top of a trifecta using Sophia’s Storm, #2 Marvelous Lady (10-1), and #8 Baby Gundin (12-1) underneath.

Selections

• #1 Burrow Down (9-5)
• #2 Marvelous Lady (10-1)
• #7 Sophia’s Storm (7-5)

Wagers

• $5 Trifecta: 1 with 2,7,8 with 2,7,8 ($30)

Assiniboia Downs: Race 7: $17,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 11:05 p.m. ET)

#3 Lansdowne (3-1) has run well in a couple of recent starts over this track, distance, and class level. On June 10, he finished second by 1 1/2 lengths after dueling from the start with two different rivals. On June 23, he settled 2 1/2 lengths off the early pace before forging ahead to prevail by 2 1/4 lengths.

Those efforts earned sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 90 and 84. We’re confident Lansdowne can ride his current momentum to victory over the stakes-placed #7 Upstriker (2-1), so let’s place win and exacta bets accordingly.

Selections

• #3 Lansdowne (3-1)
• #7 Upstriker (2-1)
• #6 Exacting (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Lansdowne
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 7
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $2,894 Pick 5 carryover (4:51 p.m. ET)

The betting highlight of Tuesday’s card at Presque Isle Downs is a $2,894 carryover in the 50-cent Late Pick 5.

The opening leg of the Pick 5 is Race 4, a $5,000 claimer for horses who haven’t won a race in the last six months. The 5 1/2-furlong Tapeta sprint is an important race to solve since it’s also the penultimate leg of the 50-cent Early Pick 5. If you’re a TwinSpires player, you can opt-in to the Presque Isle Downs $1,000 Early Pick 5 Hit It & Split It promotion and chase a $1,000 prize pool in the Early Pick 5 for good measure.

Fortunately for Pick 5 bettors, Race 4 doesn’t appear overly difficult to handicap. Only six horses have entered, and #5 Magnificent Ride (8-5)—a clear favorite on the morning line—looms as a possible standout in his second start for high-percentage trainer Brandon Kulp, a 24% winner at Presque Isle Downs this meet.

Magnificent Ride has spent the vast majority of his 41-start career competing on dirt, winning half a dozen times. But he also showed some ability when making his Tapeta debut on July 2 at Presque Isle. In a six-furlong $5,000 claimer for horses who hadn’t won a race in the last six months, Magnificent Ride raced in midfield before passing a couple of rivals to finish second with a 71 Brisnet Speed rating similar to the numbers he’s earned on dirt this year.

That 71 Brisnet Speed rating is significant because none of Magnificent Ride’s rivals have posted a higher number over a synthetic track this year.

There’s a good chance Magnificent Ride will run as well or better in his second try on Tapeta. Kulp wins at a lofty 26% rate with horses running for the second time under his care, and Magnificent Ride is retaining the services of Presque Isle’s leading jockey Antonio Gallardo, a 23% winner this meet. Throw in the fact Magnificent Ride appears likely to receive a favorable pace setup, and the six-year-old gelding is a worthy single candidate in both the Early Pick 5 and Late Pick 5.

Good luck!