Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Doroteo should enjoy shorter trip

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, July 1 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Assiniboia Downs, including a horse to single in the $1,737 Pick 5 carryover at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Assiniboia Downs 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers at Assiniboia Downs to receive a 25% boost (maximum $25 in total) on all winning double wagers for the day at Assiniboia Downs every racing day in July.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
• 8x Points at Red Shores: Receive 8x points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Charlottetown each Tuesday and Saturday in June and July, including each racing date from July 14-19 for Governor’s Plate.
• Hastings 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers at Hastings to receive a 25% boost (maximum $25 in total) on all winning double wagers for the day at Hastings every racing day in July.
• 20x Tournament Points Boost: Receive 20x points on all tournament wagers from July 1 through July 31.
• Presque Isle Downs $1,000 Early Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Early Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs on any Tuesday in July to win your share of a $1,000 weekly prize pool.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $30 Parx Challenge
• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $120 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 7/5 Indiana Derby KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $100 Mountaineer Feeder to 7/14 Ellis Park MMBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 3:12 p.m. ET)

There’s a lot to like about the form lines of #5 Doroteo (5-2). He debuted in the six-furlong Sugar Bowl S. at Fair Grounds, finishing second by one length against experienced stakes competitor Tough Catch while pulling 7 3/4 lengths clear of the rest. Then Doroteo ran third and sixth in 1 1/16-mile maiden special weights won by capable stakes performers Hypnus and Clever Again.

Cutting back to six furlongs for a maiden special weight should make Doroteo formidable, so let’s bet him to win and key him over #2 Shallus (2-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Doroteo (5-2)
• #2 Shallus (2-1)
• #7 Lifes Reward (7-2)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #5 Doroteo
• $8 Exacta: 5 with 2
  Total: $30

Assiniboia Downs: Race 1: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 8:30 p.m. ET)

#5 Commandoslastdance (7-5) holds a Brisnet Speed rating advantage against this field. Whereas none of her rivals have posted a number higher than 73 this year, Commandoslastdance’s two starts this season have produced numbers of 76 and 72. She also owns ratings of 72, 76, 75, and 73 from last year.

Commandoslastdance won a $10,000 claimer to kick off 2025 and is dropping in class off a fifth-place finish in a $12,500 allowance optional claimer, so tackling easier competition should send this four-year-old filly to the winner’s circle for hot trainer Michael Nault.

#1 Ropers N Wranglers (2-1), who won a $5,000 claimer by 2 1/4 lengths two starts back, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Commandoslastdance (7-5)
• #1 Ropers N Wranglers (2-1)
• #4 Russian Pearl (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 5 with 1

Assiniboia Downs: Race 3: Hazel Wright Sire S. (six furlongs on dirt, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#5 Nikkitysplit (2-5) won her debut sprinting five furlongs at Assiniboia Downs by 3 1/2 lengths, then closed ground nicely to run second in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance over the same track.

Those efforts earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 70 and 72, the two highest numbers in the Hazel Wright Sire S. field. Nikkitysplit looks mighty tough to beat, so let’s bet her on top of a cold exacta using recent maiden winner #3 Twolefttoload (3-1) for second place.

Selections

• #5 Nikkitysplit (2-5)
• #3 Twolefttoload (3-1)
• #4 Amplify (8-1)

Wagers

• $30 Exacta: 5 with 3

Carryover Watch

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: $1,737 Pick 5 carryover (3:43 p.m. ET)

After going unsolved on Saturday, the 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis boasts a $1,737 carryover for Tuesday’s card.

Winning a share won’t be easy. Not counting five also-eligible entrants, Tuesday’s Late Pick 5 sequence contains 45 horses (averaging nine per race) and 56,000 possible outcomes.

The opening leg of the Pick 5 is Race 4, an allowance for fillies and mares who have never won two races. Eight horses have entered the one-mile dirt contest, and #1 Fugitive Star (5-2) looms as an intriguing non-favored single candidate.

#8 Ensorcell (9-5) is the morning-line favorite after finishing third in a 1 1/8-mile allowance at Churchill Downs. But the pace-tracking filly risks a wide trip while breaking from the far outside post, and Fugitive Star is just as fast from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective.

Fugitive Star struggled in her first two starts. She debuted in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park and failed to show speed, trailing for much of the journey before passing a couple of rivals to finish fifth. Then—following a long layoff—Fugitive Star ran ninth in a one-mile maiden special weight on turf at Fair Grounds.

Tackling a dirt route at Horseshoe Indianapolis made all the difference for Fugitive Star. She made her third start in a one-mile maiden special weight on May 3, and after tracking the pace in second place, she took command with ease to win by 3 1/2 lengths over Painted Desert, who returned to win her next start against similar competition.

The best part about Fugitive Star’s maiden victory was her strong finish. She ran her final quarter-mile in :12.54, earning an excellent 100 Brisnet Late Pace rating.

Fugitive Star was ridden to victory by Fernando De La Cruz, who retains the mount for Tuesday’s contest. Over the last two months, De La Cruz has won at a lofty 35% rate teaming up with hot trainer Brad Cox, who conditions Fugitive Star. And take note, Cox strikes at a 28% rate with last-out maiden winners, so Fugitive Star has every chance to shine again while facing proven winners for the first time.

For all these reasons, Fugitive Star ranks as a viable Pick 5 single.

Good luck!