Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: First-timers at 8-1 odds

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, June 23 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Presque Isle Downs, including a ticket for Presque Isle’s $1,756 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 25% Double Down at Assiniboia Downs: Hit two double wagers to receive a 25% boost (up to $25 per day) on all winning double wagers at Assiniboia Downs each racing Tuesday and Wednesday until June 24.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $88 Parx Feeder to 7/3 Saratoga SSBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $96 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 6/25 Churchill Downs SFBC Bonus Feeder
• $51 Mountaineer Bet and Set Feeder to 6/28 Churchill Downs Haskell Challenge Qualifier
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 3:12 p.m. ET)

The experienced runners in this field don’t appear overly formidable, so we’ll take a shot betting first-time starter #4 Dade County (8-1). The bay gelding has posted fast workouts at Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a bullet five furlongs from the starting gate in 1:01, and he’s trained by Dawn Fontenot, who has gone 1-for-4 (25%) saddling first-time starters in recent years.

At 8-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #4 Dade County (8-1)
• #1 Willy’s in Charge (5-2)
• #7 Money Monday (8-5)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Dade County

Presque Isle Downs: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 3:57 p.m. ET)

#6 Violenta (2-1) has finished third and second in a pair of maiden special weight sprints at Presque Isle Downs this year, earning respectable Brisnet Speed ratings of 73 and 74. She’s progressing in the right direction for hot trainer Randall Russell (a 25% winner at Presque Isle this meet) and appears poised to snag victory in her third start of the season.

#4 Jenadriyah (4-1) and #2 American Surfer (3-1) can battle to complete the exacta and trifecta.

Selections

• #6 Violenta (2-1)
• #4 Jenadriyah (4-1)
• #2 American Surfer (3-1)

Wagers

• $11 Exacta: 6 with 2,4 ($22)
• $4 Trifecta: 6 with 2,4 with 2,4 ($8)
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 4:51 p.m. ET)

#2 So Grand (5-2) has lots of early speed, but he has trouble sustaining it to the finish line. He’s 0-for-19 and has recently lost a couple of $15,000 maiden claimers at Presque Isle, making him difficult to trust on Tuesday.

Let’s try to beat So Grand with first-time starter #4 Disposable Income (8-1). Hot trainer Juan Arriagada wins at a 20% rate with first-time starters, and Disposable Income is a son of Country House, who sires a solid 17% winners from first-time starters.

A fast half-mile workout in :46 4/5 at Presque Isle last month suggests Disposable Income has talent, so let’s bet him to win and play him over So Grand in an exacta.

Selections

• #4 Disposable Income (8-1)
• #2 So Grand (5-2)
• #1 Stark County (7-2)

Wagers

• $16 to win on #4 Disposable Income
• $4 Exacta: 4 with 2
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $1,756 Pick 5 carryover (3:30 p.m. ET)

Tuesday’s 50-cent Early Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs features a non-jackpot carryover worth $1,756.

Mathematically speaking, it should be straightforward to solve. The five races have drawn 33 horses (averaging 6.6 per race), so there are only 12,348 possible Pick 5 outcomes to analyze before scratches.

However, the five races feature competitive fields, and narrowing down the contenders isn’t easy.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Early Pick 5:

Wager

• 50-cent Pick 5: 1,3,5 with 6 with 2,3,6 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,3,4,6 ($67.50)

Race 1: $10,000 Starter Optional Claiming (five furlongs on Tapeta)

We’re drawn to the chances of #5 Half Birthday (9-2), who was last seen wiring a $10,000 starter optional claimer at Presque Isle in October. Red-hot trainer Scooter Davis wins at a 31% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so the extended break shouldn’t be an issue. However, #3 Time for an Angel (5-2) and #1 Naked Eye (3-1) boast competitive Brisnet Speed ratings and are worth using as well.

Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta)

As outlined earlier, we favor #6 Violenta (2-1) in this spot, and we’re willing to single the three-year-old filly in the Early Pick 5.

Race 3: $12,500 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta)

#6 Baytown Storm (3-1) and #3 Cocktail Kisses (7-2) finished a head apart when running 1-2 in a recent $12,500 claimer at Presque Isle Downs. They loom as the horses to beat in Race 3, but we’ll also use #2 Bossy Jeans (8-1), who is trying Tapeta for the first time after showing some ability on dirt and turf.

Race 4: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta)

We’ve already made our case for #4 Disposable Income (8-1) as a live longshot, but we won’t stand alone with the first-time starter in the Early Pick 5. We’ll also include his experienced rivals #2 So Grand (5-2) and #1 Stark County (7-2). The latter is switching from turf to Tapeta and adding blinkers for his second start, opening the door for improvement.

Race 5: $5,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta)

The finale is arguably the most competitive leg of the Early Pick 5. We’ll spread deep with #1 Leonard’s Legacy (7-2), #2 Mr. Bones (3-1), #3 Paschal Moon (9-2), #4 Smokin’ Hot (4-1), and #6 Disco Cents (8-1).

Good luck!