Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Frankly can surprise at Assiniboia

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, July 22 at Thistledown, Finger Lakes, and Assiniboia Downs, including a 10-1 longshot in the R. C. Anderson S.

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• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Assiniboia Downs 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers at Assiniboia Downs to receive a 25% boost (maximum $25 in total) on all winning double wagers for the day at Assiniboia Downs every racing day in July.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
• 8x Points at Red Shores: Receive 8x points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Charlottetown each Tuesday and Saturday in June and July, including each racing date from July 14-19 for Governor’s Plate.
• 20x Tournament Points Boost: Receive 20x points on all tournament wagers from July 1 through July 31.
• Presque Isle Downs $1,000 Early Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Early Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs on any Tuesday in July to win your share of a $1,000 weekly prize pool.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $30 Parx Challenge
• $200 Presque Isle Downs Feeder to 7/28 Ellis Park MMBC Qualifier
• $160 Mountaineer Feeder to 8/2 Whitney KDBC/NHC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Thistledown: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 1:50 p.m. ET)

#1 Nydini (10-1) has been freshened since tiring to finish ninth in his Jan. 8 debut at Tampa Bay Downs. That was a six-furlong maiden special weight won by next-out Sam F. Davis S. conqueror John Hancock.

Trainer David Wolochuk wins at a 29% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and at a 25% rate with second-time starters, so Nydini is eligible to fire a strong shot in his return. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #1 Nydini (10-1)
• #4 Daytona Gold (3-1)
• #5 Bolt’s Treasure (2-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Nydini

Finger Lakes: Race 9: $5,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 4:52 p.m. ET)

#8 Limits of Power (5-1) has disappointed in his last five starts at the $20,000 maiden claiming level at Aqueduct. But most of those defeats came in route races. In a six-furlong $20,000 maiden claimer at Aqueduct last fall, Limits of Power finished second with a 79 Brisnet Speed rating.

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Tuesday’s conditions at Finger Lakes is only 67. Plunging down to the $5,000 level in his first start for trainer James Acquilano (a 26% winner with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder) may allow Limits of Power to snatch a win.

Selections

• #8 Limits of Power (5-1)
• #5 Nine N Four (5-2)
• #7 Mount Morris (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Limits of Power

Assiniboia Downs: Race 4: R. C. Anderson S. (one mile on dirt, 9:50 p.m. ET)

#6 Nikkitysplit (1-5) owns the three best Brisnet Speed ratings in this field, most recently posting a 74 when wiring the Hazel Wright Sire S. by 3 1/2 lengths. But she’s yet to run farther than six furlongs, it remains to be seen how she’ll fare while stretching out over one mile.

Perhaps #2 Frankly (10-1) can surprise. She was beaten only 5 1/4 lengths when finishing fourth behind Nikkitysplit in a five-furlong maiden special weight in May, and she’s subsequently dominated an $11,250 maiden claimer at Assiniboia by 4 1/4 lengths.

Frankly’s pedigree offer some potential for stretching out over one mile, and take note, red-hot trainer Michael Nault strikes at a 29% rate with horses running long for the first time.

Let’s bet Frankly to win, then key her over Nikkitysplit in the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Frankly (10-1)
• #6 Nikkitysplit (1-5)
• #5 Twolefttoload (5-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #2 Frankly
• $15 Exacta: 2 with 6
  Total: $30

Good luck!