Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: How to bet Presque Isle’s Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Sept. 2 at Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Assiniboia Downs, along with a ticket for the $522 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 9/4 Kentucky Downs MMBC Qualifier
• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $100 Mountaineer Feeder to 9/13 Woodbine Mile/Churchill Downs KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 3: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:58 p.m. ET)

Speed is dominant in 5 1/2-furlong sprints at Finger Lakes. Pacesetters have won 55% of races over this distance during the current meet, and that’s from a large sample size of 113 races.

This stat bodes well for #5 He Has It All (7-2). The four-year-old gelding has wired his last two starts at Finger Lakes by blowout margins, most recently trouncing a non-state-restricted allowance sprint by 9 1/2 lengths over a next-out winner.

Dropping into the New York-bred ranks for another allowance should make He Has It All mighty tough to catch. A large win bet is in order.

Selections

• #5 He Has It All (7-2)
• #3 Stars N Stones (5-2)
• #1A Apollo Code (3-1)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #5 He Has It All

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 2:10 p.m. ET)

#5 Mr Sledge Hammer (4-5) is an odds-on favorite after finishing third and second in his first two starts sprinting over this track and class level. But in his runner-up finish, he came home only four lengths ahead of first-time starter #6 My Lunar Charm (9-2), who closed ground late after a stumbling start and a troubled trip.

My Lunar Charm is trained by Stephen Fosdick, who wins at a lofty 23% rate with second-time starters. My Lunar Charm’s pedigree suggests he’ll appreciate stretching out over one mile, so let’s place a win bet and an exacta counting on My Lunar Charm to turn the tables on Mr Sledge Hammer.

Selections

• #6 My Lunar Charm (9-2)
• #5 Mr Sledge Hammer (4-5)
• #1 Sombeyay King (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 My Lunar Charm
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 5
  Total: $30

Assiniboia Downs: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 10:40 p.m. ET)

This field of maidens hasn’t come up especially deep on paper, so let’s try placing a win bet on first-time starter #2 Judge Oliver (7-1) from the barn of Jason Homer.

A son of Uptown Rythem (who sires 18% winners from first-time starters), Judge Oliver has put together a lengthy work tab and will be guided by apprentice jockey Ciera Pruitt, who rides with a five-pound weight allowance. Over the last two months, Pruitt has won at a 22% rate teaming up with Homer.

Selections

• #2 Judge Oliver (7-1)
• #1 Calming Force (9-5)
• #7 Do Not (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Judge Oliver

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $522 Pick 5 carryover (4:51 p.m. ET)

One of the highlights of the Tuesday card at Presque Isle Downs is a non-jackpot $522 carryover in the 50-cent Late Pick 5.

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence and assemble a ticket for under $25:

Race 4: $25,000 Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta)

We’ll take a stand and single improving three-year-old #4 Calvin’s Ride (9-5), who hasn’t missed the exacta in four starts at Presque Isle. Last time out, he set a solid pace over this track, distance, and class level before staying on to win by one length with a sharp 84 Brisnet Speed rating.

Race 5: $25,000 Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta)

#1 I Lucked Out (9-5) has wired his last two starts running long at Presque Isle. Last time out, he trounced a 1 1/16-mile allowance by 3 3/4 lengths with a career-best 89 Brisnet Speed rating seven points higher than the par winning number for Race 5’s conditions. As the only frontrunner in the field, I Lucked Out looms as a logical single.

Race 6: $5,000 Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta)

#2 Kitten’s War (9-5) is a logical favorite after winning back-to-back $6,250 claimers over this track and distance. But #4 Saratoga Gaze (4-1) is fast enough to challenge while dropping in class, and #5 Cat One (5-2) fits well from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective.

Race 7: Allowance (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta)

There aren’t any standouts in this competitive seven-horse field. We’ll spread with #1 All About Me (9-2), #2 Naughty Favors (3-1), #4 Wherever We Are (5-2), #5 Going Streakin (6-1), and #6 Anhinga (7-2).

Race 8: $6,250 Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta)

Brisnet Speed ratings suggest #4 Time for an Angel (3-1), #5 Red Pixie (5-2), and #8 La Panda (9-2) are all fast enough to win the Pick 5 finale. We’ll use all three to wrap up our ticket.

• 50-cent Pick 5: 4 with 1 with 2,4,5 with 1,2,4,5,6 with 4,5,8 ($22.50)

Good luck!