Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Mahoning’s $1,773 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Oct. 27 at Finger Lakes and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a horse to single in the $1,773 Pick 5 carryover at Mahoning Valley.

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Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $80 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 11/6 Churchill Downs CBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge
• $80 Mountaineer Feeder to 11/13 Churchill Downs NHC Bonus Feeder

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 1: Allowance (one mile and 70 yards on dirt, 12:55 p.m. ET)

#7 Free Dance (8-5) enters this allowance for New York-breds in hot form. He’s dominated his last two starts in non-state-restricted allowances at Finger Lakes by margins of 7 3/4 lengths and 4 1/2 lengths, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 90 and 86.

Free Dancer appears likely to record a third straight win for hot trainer Chris Englehart (a 26% winner at Finger Lakes this meet), so let’s key him over #3 Beach Invasion (5-2) and #1 Maturation (4-1) in a trifecta.

Selections

• #7 Free Dance (8-5)
• #3 Beach Invasion (5-2)
• #1 Maturation (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 Trifecta: 7 with 1,3 with 1,3 ($30)

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

There’s quite a bit of pace in this field, which should suit #2 Soul of the Night (2-1). The Brad Cox-trained filly isn’t a need-the-lead type; in fact, she rallied from 2 1/2 lengths behind to win a $150,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs last month.

Let’s key Soul of the Night on top of #6 My Kid’s Said No (8-5) and #4 Stella’s Mischief (5-1) in exacta and trifecta tickets.

Selections

• #2 Soul of the Night (2-1)
• #6 My Kid’s Said No (8-5)
• #4 Stella’s Mischief (5-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 2 with 4,6 ($20)
• $5 Trifecta: 2 with 4,6 with 4,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:14 p.m. ET)

#2 El Jabali (5-2) debuted with a promising third-place finish in a restricted $150,000 maiden optional claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt at Del Mar. He showed speed that day, dueling through fractions of :21.91 and :45.47 before weakening in the homestretch to finish 5 1/2 lengths behind the winner.

El Jabali subsequently faltered to finish last by a wide margin when chasing a fast pace in a one-mile maiden special weight on turf at Del Mar. Cutting back in distance, switching back to dirt, and dropping down in class should help El Jabali rebound in a big way. Keep in mind, trainer Doug O’Neill wins at a 27% rate with horses going from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company.

Let’s bet El Jabali to win and play him over #8 Zimomo (2-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #2 El Jabali (5-2)
• #8 Zimomo (2-1)
• #9 Croatoan (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 El Jabali
• $10 Exacta: 2 with 8
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Mahoning Valley: Race 4: $1,773 Pick 5 carryover (1:39 p.m. ET)

Tuesday’s 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Mahoning Valley features a $1,773 carryover, adding value to the multi-race wager on a generally quiet afternoon of weekday racing.

The Late Pick 5 kicks off in Race 4, and before scratches the sequence contains 49 horses (averaging 9.8 per race) and 83,160 possible outcomes. Constructing competitive tickets could quickly grow expensive.

With this in mind, we’ve identified a logical single to build tickets around: #10 Candyman Andy (8-5) in Race 8, the final leg of the Pick 5.

Best single: Race 8: #10 Candyman Andy (8-5)

Race 8 is a maiden special weight for Ohio-breds sprinting six furlongs on dirt. At first glance, it might seem risky to single Candyman Andy since he’s already lost three times at this class level. But every entrant save first-time starter #4 Meadow Devil (15-1) has lost at least once at this class level, and Candyman Andy appears well-spotted to snag his first victory.

Candyman Andy has been sharp in his last two starts at this class level, both at Thistledown. In a six-furlong sprint on Sept. 16, he dueled for the early lead, opened up a four-length advantage in midstretch, and then tired late to finish second by one length.

On Oct. 5, Candyman Andy tried different tactics. He rated 1 1/2 lengths off the early lead, advanced to vie for command, and then weakened in the final furlong to finish third by 1 1/4 lengths.

Those efforts yielded back-to-back Brisnet Speed ratings of 65. None of the other horses entered in Race 8 have earned a rating higher than 62. If Candyman Andy repeats either of his last two numbers while making his Mahoning Valley debut, he should be difficult to beat.

Cementing Candyman Andy as a logical single is the potential pace scenario in Race 8. The field doesn’t contain an abundance of speed on paper, so even while breaking from post 10, there’s a chance Candyman Andy will secure an easy lead. From there, he can carry his speed to the winner’s circle as a Pick 5 single.

Good luck!