Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Mountaineer’s $3,841 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, July 8 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Assiniboia Downs, along with tickets for the $3,841 Super High 5 carryover at Mountaineer.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Assiniboia Downs 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers at Assiniboia Downs to receive a 25% boost (maximum $25 in total) on all winning double wagers for the day at Assiniboia Downs every racing day in July.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
• 8x Points at Red Shores: Receive 8x points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Charlottetown each Tuesday and Saturday in June and July, including each racing date from July 14-19 for Governor’s Plate.
• 20x Tournament Points Boost: Receive 20x points on all tournament wagers from July 1 through July 31.
• Presque Isle Downs $1,000 Early Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Early Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs on any Tuesday in July to win your share of a $1,000 weekly prize pool.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $30 Parx Challenge
• $100 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 7/14 Ellis Park MMBC Qualifier
• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $160 Assiniboia Downs Feeder to 7/20 Woodbine BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: $62,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on dirt, 3:43 p.m. ET)

#2 Friar Newton (10-1) has been in strong form since switching from synthetic to dirt for hot trainer Paulo Lobo. First he trounced a one-mile $30,000 claimer at Horseshoe Indianapolis by 8 1/4 lengths. Then he employed pace-tracking tactics to win a one-mile and 70-yard allowance over the same track by 3 1/4 lengths.

Friar Newton showed good finishing speed in both those races and has a shot to upset Tuesday’s field, which isn’t overly stuffed with speed. Let’s bet him to win.

Selections

• #2 Friar Newton (10-1)
• #4 Native Land (9-5)
• #6 Winters Lion (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Friar Newton

Assiniboia Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#5 Apple Fest (3-1), a five-year-old mare formerly conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, hasn’t run in 13 months. But she’s hit the board in a bevy of maiden special weights sprints in Southern California and should find the competition easier at Assiniboia Downs. All seven of her starts have yielded Brisnet Speed ratings higher than the par winning number for Tuesday’s conditions.

#1 Ez Tree Ates (1-2), who exits a third-place finish in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, can round out the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Apple Fest (3-1)
• #1 Ez Tree Ates (1-2)
• #7 Mini Glazed Donut (20-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 5 with 1

Assiniboia Downs: Race 4: Hazel Wright Sire S. (six furlongs on dirt, 9:50 p.m. ET)

#3 Nikkitysplit (1-5) won her debut sprinting five furlongs at Assiniboia Downs by 3 1/2 lengths, then closed ground nicely to run second in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance over the same track.

Those efforts earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 70 and 72, the two highest numbers in the Hazel Wright Sire S. field. Nikkitysplit looks mighty tough to beat, so let’s bet her on top of a cold exacta using recent maiden winner #2 Twolefttoload (4-1) for second place.

Selections

• #3 Nikkitysplit (1-5)
• #2 Twolefttoload (4-1)
• #1 Amplify (6-1)

Wagers

• $50 Exacta: 3 with 2

Carryover Watch

Mountaineer: Race 8: $3,841 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

The final race on Tuesday at Mountaineer is highlighted by a $3,841 Super High 5 carryover.

The prize pool adds intrigue to an otherwise ordinary $5,000 claimer for horses who haven’t won a race since July 8, 2024, excluding West Virginia-bred races and claiming races for $4,000 or less. The six-furlong dirt dash has drawn 10 entries, so there are 30,240 possible Super High 5 outcomes.

The vast majority of the entrants are exiting $4,000 claimers, including the red-hot duo of #2 Far West (3-1) and #9 Weekend Concerto (7-2). We rank these two as the horses to beat.

Far West has dominated two recent starts at Mountaineer. First, the nine-year-old gelding wired a six-furlong $4,000 claimer by seven lengths with an 82 Brisnet Speed rating. Then he led essentially all the way to smash a one-mile $4,000 claimer by six lengths with a 79 Brisnet Speed rating.

However, Weekend Concerto has run even faster while going 2-for-2 this year. He posted an 84 Brisnet Speed rating when leading by daylight at every call of a 5 1/2-furlong $4,000 claimer, ultimately winning by 8 1/4 lengths. Then he employed pace-pressing tactics to take a six-furlong $4,000 claimer by 1 1/4 lengths over a next-out winner, earning an 82 Brisnet Speed rating.

We suggest keying Weekend Concerto on top in the Super High 5 while counting on Far West to finish in the top three.

Other horses worth emphasizing include #4 Milano (10-1) and #8 Drive by Layover (9-2). Milano was tons the best in a one-mile $4,000 claimer at Mountaineer last time out, winning by 11 lengths while earning his second straight 82 Brisnet Speed rating. As for Drive by Layover, he recently led every step of the way to win a six-furlong $4,000 claimer at Mountaineer by a neck, and last year he earned several Brisnet Speed ratings in the 80-84 range.

Here are the tickets we suggest playing:

• $1 Super High 5: 9 with 2 with 4,8 with 1,4,6,7,8 with 1,4,6,7,8 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 9 with 4,8 with 2 with 1,4,6,7,8 with 1,4,6,7,8 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 9 with 2 with 4,8 with 1,4,6,7,8 with 3,5 ($16)
  Total: $64

Good luck!