Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Presque Isle’s $2,080 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, July 7 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Presque Isle Downs, including a horse to single in Presque Isle’s $2,080 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 15% Odds Boost at Horseshoe Indianapolis: Opt in to receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 for the day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Horseshoe Indianapolis each racing Tuesday in July.
• $2,000 Exacta Hit It & Split It at Presque Isle Downs: Opt in and hit two exactas at Presque Isle Downs for a chance to split a $2,000 prize pool each racing Tuesday in July.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $64 Parx Bet and Set Feeder to 7/12 Saratoga BCBC Qualifier
• $80 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 7/10 Saratoga KDBC/NHC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $80 Mountaineer Feeder to 7/17 Ellis Park Haskell Challenge Bonus Qualifier
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

#6 Preach Tewmey Now (10-1) is technically stepping up in class after debuting with a fourth-place finish in a 6 1/2-furlong $12,500 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs. But she broke slowly and rallied nicely to finish only three lengths behind the winner.

The competition is typically a bit easier at Horseshoe Indianapolis than Churchill Downs, which should help Preach Tewmey Now compete successfully at the $20,000 level. At 10-1, she’s worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #6 Preach Tewmey Now (10-1)
• #3 Sang (2-1)
• #4 Army Chic (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Preach Tewmey Now

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#4 West of Lex (5-2) misfired in her first start at Horseshoe Indianapolis, finishing 10th in a five-furlong maiden special weight. But that race took place on turf, and West of Lex may be better on dirt.

West of Lex has raced twice on dirt in Kentucky, finishing sixth in a Keeneland maiden special weight and 10th (after pressing a hot pace) in a $100,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs. Her tactical speed is an asset, and she may find the competition more manageable at Horseshoe Indianapolis, opening the door for a winning run.

Let’s place a win bet on West of Lex and key her over #3 Ready Munny (5-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #4 West of Lex (5-2)
• #3 Ready Munny (5-1)
• #5 Deyemond (2-1)

Wagers

• $24 to win on #4 West of Lex
• $6 Exacta: 4 with 3
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 2: $6,250 Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 3:57 p.m. ET)

#5 Gift Exchange (9-2) looks like a good fit for this $6,250 claimer for horses who have never won three races.

Two starts back, Gift Exchange won a $6,250 claimer for non-winners of two races, trouncing next-out winner #2 Pancho Slips Away (5-2) by 2 1/2 lengths. Then Gift Exchange stepped up in class for a $12,500 claimer and finished a respectable third, beaten only 3 1/4 lengths.

Gift Exchange is the only horse entered in Race 2 who is dropping in class, making his 9-2 morning-line odds enticing. Let’s try a win bet on the five-year-old gelding, then bet him over #1 Turf Cat (3-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #5 Gift Exchange (9-2)
• #1 Turf Cat (3-1)
• #4 This Laughs On You (8-1)

Wagers

• $24 to win on #5 Gift Exchange
• $6 Exacta: 5 with 1
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $2,080 Pick 5 carryover (3:30 p.m. ET)

The 50-cent Early Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs has tossed up a $2,080 carryover for Tuesday’s card.

Mathematically speaking, the sequence looks straightforward to solve. The five races have drawn a combined 32 horses (averaging 6.4 per race), and there are only 10,584 possible Pick 5 outcomes to consider.

We’ve already analyzed Race 2, the $6,250 claimer serving as the second leg of the Early Pick 5. #5 Gift Exchange (9-2) is our top choice, but Pick 5 bettors may wish to include #1 Turf Cat (3-1) as backup. Turf Cat has cracked the exacta in seven of his last eight starts and fits well at the $6,250 level.

Bettors searching for a single to build tickets around are instead advised to favor #1 Xerces (3-1) in Race 5, a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on Tapeta.

Xerces has recorded top-three finishes in nine of her 10 starts at Presque Isle. Two starts back, she closed from three lengths back to win a one-mile $6,250 claimer by 1 1/4 lengths over a next-out winner, in the process earning a career-best 80 Brisnet Speed rating.

That 80 Brisnet Speed rating is significant. Only one of Xerces’ Race 5 rivals has recently managed to post a rating that high: #5 One Violent Affair (10-1), who earned an 80 when winning a $5,000 claimer on Feb. 6 at Tampa Bay Downs. But that race took place on dirt, and when One Violent Affair tried Tapeta for the first-time in an $8,500 claimer at Presque Isle last month, she finished a distant last with a 44 Brisnet Speed rating.

Xerces followed up her $6,250 claiming win with a respectable showing in a 6 1/2-furlong $10,000 claimer for Pennsylvania-breds. Despite racing over a distance possibly shorter than her best, she closed nicely to finish third, beaten only a neck.

Stretching back out over one mile while dropping down to the $5,000 level can send Xerces to the winner’s circle for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Edwin Gonzalez and Brandon Kulp, who have gone 5-for-17 (29%) teaming up together over the last two months.

Good luck!