Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Presque Isle’s $4,031 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Oct. 21 at Finger Lakes and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a horse to single in the $4,031 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Bet $3,000 Get 5% Back on BCBC Seat: Place at least $3,000 in eligible wagers on races from Oct. 1 through Oct. 26 to receive 5% back on your Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge seat purchase through TwinSpires.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $200 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 10/25 Keeneland BCBC/CBC Qualifier
• $200 Mountaineer Feeder to 10/29 Keeneland BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 4:14 p.m. ET)

#3 Rosso Fuoco (5-1) has finished sixth in each of his first three starts sprinting over this track and class level. As a son of Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Vino Rosso, he’s eligible to improve while stretching out over one mile for hot trainer Randy Klopp, a 20% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet.

Let’s try a win bet on Rosso Fuoco.

Selections

• #3 Rosso Fuoco (5-1)
• #4 Basil (9-2)
• #10 Pro Fever (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Rosso Fuoco

Finger Lakes: Race 8: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 4:23 p.m. ET)

#6 Henry’s Hope (10-1) has faltered in his last three starts on the New York Racing Association circuit. However, he showed excellent early speed before tiring to finish seventh in a $30,000 claimer at Aqueduct earlier this month.

During the summer, Henry’s Hope used his speed to wire a six-furlong maiden special weight at Finger Lakes by 2 1/4 lengths. Returning to Finger Lakes may help Henry’s Hope rebound at double-digit odds, so let’s try a win bet on the three-year-old gelding.

#1 Rockinmoney (5-2) is a logical choice to round out the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Henry’s Hope (10-1)
• #1 Rockinmoney (5-2)
• #8 Price Is Truth (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Henry’s Hope
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 1
  Total: $25

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 5:47 p.m. ET)

#6 Betsy (8-1) ran well in her first start at Horseshoe Indianapolis, rallying to finish second in a 7 1/2-furlong turf maiden special weight. Then she tried a one-mile maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs, where she ran 12th behind next-out Miss Grillo (G2) winner Ground Support.

Getting back to easier competition at Horseshoe Indianapolis might be all Betsy needs to rebound with a winning performance under hot jockey Nik Juarez. #4 Starlit Sky (3-1) can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Betsy (8-1)
• #4 Starlit Sky (3-1)
• #1 American Tapit (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Betsy
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 4
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $4,031 Pick 5 carryover (4:51 p.m. ET)

The highlight of Tuesday’s card at Presque Isle Downs is a non-jackpot carryover worth $4,031 in the 50-cent Late Pick 5.

The five-race sequence has attracted 44 horses, averaging 8.8 per race. Before scratches, there are 49,896 possible outcomes.

If you need a single to build tickets around, we have a slightly creative recommendation in Race 6, a one-mile maiden special weight for juveniles. Although the field is seemingly competitive at first glance, with a couple of first-time starters among the nine entrants, we view morning-line favorite #4 Inmate (7-2) as a standout.

Inmate showed talent in his first two starts sprinting. First, he ran second in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight, beaten only 1 1/4 lengths while finishing one length ahead of a next-out winner. Then he rallied from midfield to finish second by a head in the 6 1/2-furlong Fitz Dixon Jr. Memorial Juvenile S.

Some bettors might hesitate to support Inmate since he lost his first try over one mile in an Oct. 7 maiden special weight at Presque Isle. He finished second by three-quarters of a length despite escaping with an easy lead through incredibly slow fractions of :25.89, :52.26, and 1:17.38.

But there are a couple of facts worth noting. The winner of that contest, Madagascar, was a high-profile New York shipper from the barn of Miguel Clement. Also, Inmate accelerated meaningfully down the homestretch, running his final quarter-mile in approximately :23 3/5. This indicates Inmate had plenty left in the tank and could have run a faster final time if he’d rationed his speed more effectively and run faster early—the slow pace arguably hurt his overall performance more than it helped him.

We anticipate that Inmate will move forward in his second try over one mile, especially if he sets or presses a quicker tempo. It’s encouraging to note hot trainer Ron Potts (a 22% winner at Presque Isle this meet) wins at a lofty 25% rate with horses running long for the second time.

Good luck!