Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Red Iolla worth betting at 10-1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, June 10 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Thistledown, along with a 6-1 shot to play in the $1,403 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Assiniboia Downs 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers at Assiniboia Downs to receive a 25% boost (maximum $25 in total) on all winning double wagers for the day at Assiniboia Downs every Tuesday and Wednesday in May.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
• 8x Points at Presque Isle Downs: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Presque Isle Downs each Monday and Tuesday in June.
• 8x Points at Charlottetown Red Shores: Receive 8x points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Charlottetown each Tuesday and Saturday in June and July, including each racing date from July 14-19 for Governor’s Plate.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 6/14 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier
• $50 Parx Challenge
• $30 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $100 Mountaineer Feeder to 6/21 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: $5,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

There isn’t much pace in this field, so #1 Paige Perfect (2-1) is a logical choice to lead all the way. She’s stretching out in distance off a trio of sprints, and last summer she finished a pace-pressing second in a $15,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Let’s place a large win bet on Paige Perfect.

Selections

• #1 Paige Perfect (2-1)
• #5 Gimmel (3-1)
• #6 Mi Sargento (7-2)

Wagers

• $35 to win on #1 Paige Perfect

Thistledown: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:50 p.m. ET)

#6 Daytona Gold (7-2) earned a competitive 73 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing sixth in a six-furlong maiden special weight for New York-breds at Aqueduct last fall.

Daytona Gold has since been gelded and is adding Lasix for his first start under the care of hot trainer Nestor Rivera. Quick workouts at Thistledown suggest Daytona Gold can win his comeback under jockey Angel Diaz, a 24% winner teaming up with Rivera over the last two months.

Selections

• #6 Daytona Gold (7-2)
• #8 Picaro (8-2)
• #5 Total Silence (2-1)

Wagers

• $35 to win on #6 Daytona Gold

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 3:43 p.m. ET)

#5 Red Iolla (10-1) has upset potential in this field of Indiana-bred juvenile fillies. A daughter of Echo Town (who is siring a lofty 22% winners from first-time starters), Red Iolla is trained by Jonathan Nance, who has gone 2-for-13 (15%) saddling first-time starters since 2023.

Red Iolla has shown some speed in the mornings, most notably clocking half a mile from the Horseshoe Indianapolis starting gate in :48 1/5. Under apprentice jockey Felix Astudillo (who rides with a seven-pound weight allowance), Red Iolla is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #5 Red Iolla (10-1)
• #8 Starry Eye Justice (7-2)
• #7 Dotted Dream (9-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #5 Red Iolla

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $1,403 Pick 5 carryover (4:51 p.m. ET)

Bad weather brought a premature end to the Monday card at Presque Isle Downs, which means the $1,403 Late Pick 5 carryover slated to be paid out on Monday is instead carrying over to Tuesday’s Late Pick 5.

The opening leg of the 50-cent wager is Race 4, a $25,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races. The one-mile Tapeta contest has drawn only six entries, and at first glance, it doesn’t seem like a challenging race to handicap. Clear favorite #6 Ms Sedona (8-5) figures to be a single for some bettors since the four-year-old filly is the fastest entrant from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective. Whereas none of her rivals have posted a number higher than 80, Ms Sedona has put up ratings of 81, 79, and 82 in her last three starts.

But here’s the problem: Ms Sedona earned those numbers competing over distances from 1 1/4 miles to 1 1/2 miles. She’s a deep closer without early speed, and it remains to be seen how she’ll fare while cutting back to one mile.

One alternative worth including on Pick 5 tickets is #3 Lizzie Baby (6-1). The three-year-old filly is dropping in class after finishing ninth in a $32,000 starter optional claimer racing one mile over the Tampa Bay Downs turf course. She showed early speed that day, but two starts back, she launched a rally from last place to finish second by a neck in a $20,000 claimer over the same course and distance.

Lizzie Baby is versatile in terms of running style. Her maiden victory came in gate-to-wire fashion in a $16,000 maiden claimer racing two turns over the Tampa Bay Downs dirt. Her ability to race up front gives her a tactical advantage against Ms Sedona, especially since there isn’t much pace at all in this small field.

Throw in the fact trainer Kevin Rice has gone 5-for-14 (36%) at Presque Isle this meet, and there’s a lot to like about the chances of Lizzie Baby. She’s our top choice, and in addition to playing her in the Pick 5, we recommend betting her to win:

• Race 4: $30 to win on #3 Lizzie Baby

Good luck!