Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Smarty Jones, Cathryn Sophia plays

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Aug. 19 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Parx Racing, along with a horse to single in the $4,020 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Assiniboia Downs 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers at Assiniboia Downs to receive a 25% boost (maximum $25 in total) on all winning double wagers for the day at Assiniboia Downs each Tuesday in August.
• Presque Isle Downs $1,000 Win Hit It & Split It: Hit three winning $10+ win wagers at Presque Isle Downs each Tuesday in August for a chance to split a $1,000 prize pool each promotional day.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Parx Challenge
• $200 Parx Feeder to 8/23 Travers MMBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $150 Mountaineer Feeder to 8/30 Saratoga/Kentucky Downs MMBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 2:10 p.m. ET)

#7 Federal Agent (2-1) broke slowly when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park, then passed a couple of rivals to finish sixth.

Stretching out over one mile for his second start should help Federal Agent deliver victory. He’s bred to thrive running long, and trainer Brad Cox wins at a powerful 30% rate with horses tackling a route distance for the first time.

Federal Agent’s unraced stablemate #2 Vamos Ya (3-1) can complete the exacta. Since 2021, Cox has gone 9-for-27 (33%) debuting juveniles in dirt routes at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Selections

• #7 Federal Agent (2-1)
• #2 Vamos Ya (3-1)
• #3 Caprio (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 7 with 2

Parx Racing: Race 10: Smarty Jones S. (1 1/16 miles, 4:47 p.m. ET)

#3 Tip Top Thomas (2-1) defeated #1 Instant Replay (5-2) by three lengths when they finished first and fifth in the Indiana Derby (G3) at Horseshoe Indianapolis last month. But that race took place over a fast and speed-favoring track, which lent an advantage to frontrunning Tip Top Thomas while compromising stretch-running Instant Replay.

Instant Replay had previously won the Bath House Row S. and Texas Derby in succession. In the latter race, he earned a 99 Brisnet Speed rating higher than Tip Top Thomas’ career-best 96 rating.

If Instant Replay catches a fair track at Parx, he can turn the tables on Tip Top Thomas. Let’s bet win and exacta tickets accordingly.

Selections

• #1 Instant Replay (5-2)
• #3 Tip Top Thomas (2-1)
• #4 Hypnus (9-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #1 Instant Replay
• $15 Exacta: 1 with 3
  Total: $30

Parx Racing: Race 11: Cathryn Sophia S. (one mile and 70 yards on dirt, 5:14 p.m. ET)

#11 Dry Powder (9-2) is dropping in class after finishing a distant third in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at Saratoga.

Dry Powder fared better two starts back in Saratoga’s one-mile Wilton S. After dueling through hot pace fractions, she stayed on to finish second by a head against deep closer #1 Sweet Seraphine (4-1).

Let’s try a win bet on Dry Powder, then play her over Sweet Seraphine and the undefeated #9 Decadent (6-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #11 Dry Powder (9-2)
• #1 Sweet Seraphine (4-1)
• #9 Decadent (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #11 Dwy Powder
• $5 Exacta: 11 with 1,9 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $4,020 Pick 5 carryover (4:51 p.m. ET)

If you’re a fan of Pick 5 carryovers, you’ll be happy to hear Tuesday’s 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs features a non-jackpot prize pool worth $4,020.

Mathematically speaking, the sequence looks straightforward to solve. The five races have drawn only 32 horses in total (averaging 6.4 per race), and no race has attracted more than seven entries. All told, there are only 10,584 possible outcomes to analyze.

We can slice that number down to 1,764 just by singling #2 Peaches Point (7-5) in Race 5, the second leg of the Pick 5. It’s a $6,250 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races, and Peaches Point looks like a class standout in the one-mile and 70-yard Tapeta contest.

Peaches Point has competed in three straight $25,000 claimers for non-winners of two races, all at Presque Isle Downs. On June 10, she finished second in a one-mile race, earning a 67 Brisnet Speed rating. On July 3, she ran sixth over the same distance, but improved her rating to 69. On Aug. 5, she ran fifth in a six-furlong sprint and earned a 67.

Those numbers are dancing right around the par winning Brisnet Speed rating (68) for Race 5’s conditions. Throw in the fact trainer Kevin Rice wins at a powerful 37% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, and Peaches Point should be mighty tough to beat while plunging into a $6,250 claimer.

In addition to singling Peaches Point in the Pick 5, we recommend keying her on top of trifecta tickets using #1 Tango Zulu (2-1) and #6 High Track (5-1) underneath.

Race 5 wagers

• $17 Trifecta: 2 with 1 with 6
• $13 Trifecta: 2 with 6 with 1
  Total: $30

Good luck!