Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 10-1 at Churchill Downs

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Sept. 17 at Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with tickets for Mountaineer’s $1,756 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Points at Little Brown Jug: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) in all races at Delaware County Fairgrounds from Sept. 14-18.
• Churchill Downs Selected Races $10 Bet Back: Place a single-horse win wager in select races at Churchill Downs to receive a Bonus Bet up to $10 if your horse finishes second or third.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $200 Churchill Downs Feeder to 9/20 Pennsylvania Derby/Churchill Downs BCBC Qualifier
• $200 Mountaineer Feeder to 9/27 Churchill Downs KDBC/BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 3: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 1:43 p.m. ET)

In recent years, trainer Norm Casse has debuted eight horses racing one mile or farther. Six of them (75%) finished in the top three, including one winner.

This two-turn $30,000 maiden claimer for juveniles has drawn a largely unremarkable field without any pace on paper, so perhaps Casse’s unraced #9 Off the Deck (10-1) can strike first-time out. He’s a son of speedy sprinter/miler Munnings (who sires 15% winners from first-time starters), and a lengthy series of half-mile workouts at Churchill Downs should have him fit for a competitive debut.

Let’s try a win bet on Off the Deck.

Selections

• #9 Off the Deck (10-1)
• #5 Tingus Pingus (7-2)
• #1 Federal Agent (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #9 Off the Deck

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#10 Appeazing (5-1) has put together a nice work tab highlighted by a near-bullet half-mile from the Horseshoe Indianapolis starting gate in :47 4/5. The daughter of American Pastime is a logical threat to win first-time out for trainer Aaron West, who has gone 7-for-34 (21%) debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Horseshoe Indianapolis since 2021.

Let’s bet Appeazing to win and key her over second-time starter #1 Eltinge (9-5) in an exacta.

Selections

• #10 Appeazing (5-1)
• #1 Eltinge (9-5)
• #11 Consequences (15-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #10 Appeazing
• $5 Exacta: 10 with 1
  Total: $25

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 5:47 p.m. ET)

#3 Signatory Man (5-2) has started twice in maiden special weights on turf. He rallied to finish fourth in his debut dashing five furlongs at Churchill Downs, and then—following a misfire on dirt—he faded from a pace-pressing position to finish sixth in a 1 1/16-mile grass contest at Saratoga.

Signatory Man was beaten only 5 1/2 lengths in the latter contest. He should find the competition easier at Horseshoe Indianapolis, opening the door for him to deliver a victory for hot trainer Brendan Walsh, a 23% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet.

We’ll keep our wagering strategy simple with a large win bet.

Selections

• #3 Signatory Man (5-2)
• #4 Burden of Dreams (9-2)
• #9 Mountain Wolf (10-1)

Wagers

• $35 to win on #3 Signatory Man

Carryover Watch

Mountaineer: Race 8: $1,756 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

No one solved the Super High 5 on Tuesday night at Mountaineer, leading to a non-jackpot $1,756 carryover for Wednesday’s card.

As usual, the Super High 5 is available to bet in the final race on the card. That would be Race 8, a $4,000 claimer for three-year-olds and older horses who haven’t won a race in the last year. The five-furlong dirt dash has attracted 14 entries: 10 horses in the main body of the field, plus four on the also-eligible list.

Key win threats include #9 Lost in Manhattan (4-1) and #10 Kiltoom (3-1). Lost in Manhattan ran second over this track, distance, and class level on Aug. 19, which marked his first start in 11 months. He earned a sharp 74 Brisnet Speed rating and has every chance to shine in his second start of the season.

As for Kiltoom, he’s dropping in class out of tougher races. Last time out, he dueled for the lead in a 5 1/2-furlong $6,500 claimer at Mountaineer before tiring in the final furlong to finish fifth. His speed may carry farther at the $4,000 level, opening the door for a winning performance.

Let’s build Super High 5 tickets around Lost in Manhattan and Kiltoom, counting on one to win and the other to finish in the top two.

Underneath, we’ll emphasize #1 Professional (9-2), #2 Joe Phillips (5-1), and #8 Somerset Bay (12-1). All three have earned solid Brisnet Speed ratings competing in $4,000 claimers at Mountaineer this year, and they have strong chances to finish in the top five on Wednesday.

#11 Genius (5-1) likewise has the form lines and Brisnet Speed ratings to factor, but he’ll need a scratch in order to draw in off the also-eligible list.

We’ll round out the bottom of our tickets with #6 Krusin Rocket (8-1) and #7 O Romeo (10-1). Initially, the ticket costs are expensive ($144) and arguably higher than warranted for the size of the carryover, but if Genius (or one of our other runners) scratches, the costs ought to drop into a more affordable range:

• $1 Super High 5: 9,10 with 9,10 with 1,2,8 with 1,2,8,11 with 1,2,6,7,8,11 ($72)
• $1 Super High 5: 9,10 with 1,2,8 with 9,10 with 1,2,8,11 with 1,2,6,7,8,11 ($72)
  Total: $144

Good luck!