Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 3 longshots, 4 win bets

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Oct. 22 at Keeneland, Aqueduct, and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a horse to single in Keeneland’s $24,777 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Bet $3,000 Get 5% Back on BCBC Seat: Place at least $3,000 in eligible wagers on races from Oct. 1 through Oct. 26 to receive 5% back on your Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge seat purchase through TwinSpires.
• 5x Points at Keeneland: Receive 5x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Keeneland each Wednesday in October.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Keeneland Challenge
• $200 Keeneland Feeder to 10/25 Keeneland BCBC/CBC Qualifier
• $200 Mountaineer Feeder to 10/29 Keeneland BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 1:32 p.m. ET)

#6 Lexico (20-1) has finished sixth in his first two starts on turf at Saratoga and Kentucky Downs. As a son of Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G1) winner Lexitonian out of a mare by Tapit, Lexico has the pedigree to improve while switching to dirt.

Throw in the fact trainer Whitworth Beckman wins at a 22% rate with horses running long for the first time—and at a 33% rate with horses stretching out off back-to-back sprints—and Lexico is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #6 Lexico (20-1)
• #9 Struck At Midnight (7-2)
• #4 Honor Azteca (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Lexico

Aqueduct: Race 5: $75,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (six furlongs on turf, 3:16 p.m. ET)

A troubled start left #5 Honor the Numbers (8-1) a dozen lengths off the pace in his debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga. Nevertheless, he flew home down the homestretch to finish second by half a length, earning a 74 Brisnet Speed rating only one point lower than the par winning number for Wednesday’s conditions at Aqueduct.

A clean break can put Honor the Numbers in win contention for trainer Michelle Giangiulio, a 33% winner with second-time starters. At 8-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #5 Honor the Numbers (8-1)
• #7 Bashful Baby (5-1)
• #4 Greyjoy (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Honor the Numbers

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:59 p.m. ET)

#3 Shady Valley (10-1) is a first-time starter from the barn of John Ortiz. Since 2020, Ortiz has compiled a terrific 8-for-19 (42%) record debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

A lengthy series of workouts in Kentucky should have Shady Valley fit for a competitive debut. Her 10-1 morning-line odds are enticing, so let’s try a win bet on the dark bay filly.

Selections

• #3 Shady Valley (10-1)
• #4 Daphne Brewnette (12-1)
• #1 Great Fortune (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Shady Valley

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 3: $24,777 Pick 6 carryover (2:04 p.m. ET)

The final week of the Keeneland fall meet begins with an enticing $24,777 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6.

Seemingly one of the most challenging legs of the sequence is Race 5, a maiden special weight for juvenile fillies racing about seven furlongs over the main track. A huge field of 15 horses (including three also-eligibles) has entered, and six of the entrants are first-time starters without any established form to analyze. Narrowing down the list of win contenders isn’t easy.

Or is it? Many of the experienced runners appear unlikely to visit the winner’s circle. Even #2 Joke Maker (5-1), the third-place finisher from the Pocahontas (G3), has been defeated in two previous maiden special weight sprints and has yet to earn a Brisnet Speed rating within six points of the par winning number (86) for Wednesday’s conditions at Keeneland.

Therefore, first-time starter #7 Sticker Shock (7-2) is an intriguing contender for hot trainer Brad Cox, a 30% winner at Keeneland this meet and a 24% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights. Since 2020, Cox has compiled an excellent 15-for-54 (28%) record debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Keeneland, so trainer stats suggest there’s a strong chance Sticker Shock will vie for victory on debut.

But wait, there’s more to like about Sticker Shock. She’s a daughter of champion juvenile Uncle Mo, who sires a solid 14% winners from first-time starters. And her dam, Smokey’s Love, has already foaled Fighting Mad, who won her debut at age two before maturing to win the Clement L. Hirsch (G1), Santa Maria (G2), and Torrey Pines (G3).

Sticker Shock has been training sharply in Kentucky. At Ellis Park last month, she clocked a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :48 2/5. On Oct. 12 at Keeneland, she sped five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.

Throw in the fact she’ll be ridden by five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. (a 27% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months), and Sticker Shock is a highly appealing win threat. Since none of the other first-time starters entered in Race 5 appear overly likely to challenge for victory, we suggest singling Sticker Shock in the Pick 6 and betting her to win for good measure:

• $30 to win on #7 Sticker Shock

Good luck!